Thursday’s Den: Quick thoughts on the NFL schedule

Arizona opens in Buffalo; Cardinals are 3-2 SU/5-0 ATS in last five road openers.

Cardinals have Week 7 Monday night home game, then Week 8 they’ve got a cross-country trip to play the Dolphins in Miami.

Arizona’s two games with Seattle are in Weeks 12/14.

Kirk Cousins visits his old team, the Vikings, in Week 14 (December 8)

Falcons are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road openers, 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers.

Four of their first five games are at home (3 in row at home, weeks 3-5)

Rookie coach Caneles faces Tampa Bay, his old team, in Weeks 13/17.

Panthers lost four of last five home openers SU (1-3-1 ATS)

Carolina visits Denver in Week 8; Panthers’ DC Ejiro Evero was Denver’s DC two years ago.

Bears open their season at home vs Tennessee; since 2003, QB’s drafted first in a draft are 0-14-1 SU/1-14 ATS in their first start.

Weeks 13-15, Chicago has three straight road games (Lions-49ers-Vikings)

Last 20 years, under is 15-5 in Bears’ road openers. Last seven years, under is 6-1 in Chicago’s home openers. 

Three of their first four road games (Giants-Steelers-49ers) are night games.

Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.

Washington coach Dan Quinn was Dallas’ DC the last three years; Cowboy-Commander games are in Weeks 12/18.

Detroit doesn’t play a game outdoors until Week 9 at Green Bay.

Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.

Lions lost NFC title game 34-31 to San Francisco LY, blowing a 24-7 third quarter lead; they visit the 49ers on Monday night in Week 17. 

Green Bay
Packers open season against the Eagles in Brazil; Green Bay hasn’t started a season at Lambeau since 2018, but they’ve also won their last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS)

Over is 8-3 in their last 11 road openers.

Play consecutive Thursday games in Weeks 13-14: they host Miami on Thanksgiving night, then visit Detroit the next Thursday.

LA Rams
Rams lost in playoffs at Detroit LY; they open this year on Sunday night, also at Detroit, which will revive the Stafford-Goff trade drama.

Rams are in Chicago in Week 4; their next road game isn’t until Week 9, at Seattle.

Under Sean McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.

Weeks 10-12, Vikings have 3 straight road games (Jaguars-Titans-Bears)

Under is 9-1 in Minnesota’s last ten home openers.

Vikings are 0-6-1 SU/0-7 ATS in their last seven road openers. 

NJ Giants
Last 12 years, Giants are 1-11 ATS in their home opener. 

Both their games with Dallas are on Thursdays, including a Thanksgiving game.

Eagles’ new RB Saquon Barkley plays against his old team in Weeks 7/18.

New Orleans
Visit Giants/Packers in December, two cold-weather games for a dome team.

Last nine years, Saints are 3-6 SU/1-8 ATS in home openers.

Dennis Allen/Derek Carr’s old team (Raiders) visit New Orleans in Week 17.

Open season against the Packers in Brazil; in Week 3, they go to Tampa, Week 4, they go to New Orleans, then they have an early bye in Week 5. 

Last 15 years, Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home openers. 

New OC Kellen Moore got run out of Dallas couple years ago; Eagles’ games with the Cowboys are in Weeks 10/17.

San Francisco
Over last 21 years, teams that lost Super Bowl are 5-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year; 49ers host the Jets in Week 1.

Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.

Weeks 12-13, they visit Packers/Bills, two cold weather games; the game in Buffalo is at night.

Seahawks won four of their last five road openers.

Week 17 Thursday night road game is long travel/short week, plus a cold weather game.

Their two games with the Cardinals are in Weeks 12/14.

Commanders play three of first four games on the road.

Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home openers.

Kliff Kingsbury is the new OC; Washington visits his old team (Arizona) in Week 4. 

Ravens visit Arrowhead in Week 1; they lost AFC title game at home to the Chiefs last year.

Harbaugh brothers face each other in Week 12, on a Monday night at SoFi.

Baltimore won/covered seven of last eight Week 1 games.

Bills visit old friend, WR Stefon Diggs, in Week 5 at Houston.

Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.

Bills’ games with Dolphins are early in season; they visit Miami on a Thursday nite in Week 2; Dolphins come to Buffalo in Week 9. 

Bengals’ games with Baltimore are fairly early (weeks 5/10); their games with Pittsburgh are later on (weeks 13/18)

Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home openers.

Bengals have five night games, three of them on the road. 

Four of their first six games are against NFC East opponents.

Since 2010, Browns are 5-1 ATS as an underdog in their home opener. 

Browns visit Philadelphia in Week 6; Cleveland DC Schwartz was DC of the Eagles from 2016-20. 

Sean Payton’s Broncos visit Payton’s old team in New Orleans in Week 7. 

Week 4, Broncos visit the Jets; will Zach Wilson be playing QB against his old team? At what point does rookie QB Bo Nix get the nod?

Denver’s last five home openers stayed under the total.

They don’t play an outdoor game until Week 6 at New England.

Under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.

It is conceivable that their first three games could be against very young QB’s:
Colts- Richardson, Bears- Williams, Vikings- McCarthy

Three of their first four games are at home.

Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.

Their two games with Houston are before Halloween (weeks 1/8).

Jaguars visit Philadelphia in Week 9; Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl coaching the Eagles. 

Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in last seven road openers, last four of which went over the total.

Jaguars are playing Bears/Patriots in England in Weeks 6-7; the games are in different stadiums.

Kansas City
Over last 21 years, Super Bowl champs are 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year, although they’re 0-3 ATS the last three years.

Last 7 years, Chiefs are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in road openers.

Chiefs have cold weather games in Cleveland (Week 15), Pittsburgh (Week 17), Denver (Week 18).

Las Vegas
Two of their first seven games are on road at SoFi: Week 1 @ Chargers, Week 7 @ Rams.

Raiders are 7-2 ATS in last nine road openers.

Weeks 11-14, Raiders have three games in four weeks east of the Mississippi, visiting Miami, Chiefs and Tampa Bay.

LA Chargers
Host the Raiders in Week 1; the rematch is in the season finale at Las Vegas.

Chargers are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen road openers.

Chargers have an early (Week 5) bye, which isn’t ideal.

Thanksgiving night in Green Bay should be fun, then they finish the season with a couple more cold weather games in Cleveland, New Jersey (Jets) in Weeks 17-18.

Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.

Play three of first four games at home, with two of the home games at night.

New England
Three of their first four games are on the road. 

Games with Buffalo are very late, Weeks 16/18.

Their over/under win total is 4.5 wins, tied with Carolina for lowest in league.

NJ Jets
First seven weeks, they have four night games, and a morning game from England.

Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six home openers.

TV people like Aaron Rodgers; Jets have six night games scheduled, which is a lot for a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010.

Weeks 12-16, they play 4 road games in 5 weeks; 3 of the 4 games are divisional games.

Russell Wilson visits his old team/coach in Denver in Week 2.

Visit the Ravens in Week 16 on a Saturday, host Chiefs on Christmas four days later.

Titans host Cincinnati in Week 15; Tennessee coach Callahan was the Bengals’ OC the last five years (head coach Zac Taylor is really the OC).

Titans are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.

Play only one divisional game in first 11 weeks of the season; 5 of their last 7 games are against AFC South rivals.

— ESPN’s schedule release show was so much better than NFL Network’s; memo to Rich Eisen: no one gives a BLEEP!!! where you went to college. Jim Harbaugh coaches the Chargers now; talk about the Chargers, not his last job.

— Christmas is on a Wednesday this year; despite that, there will be two NFL games on Christmas, with Chiefs @ Pittsburgh and Ravens @ Houston- those games are on Netflix.

— Lowest win totals:
Carolina, New England both have 4.5 win totals
1991 was last time New England’s win total was that low.

Week 1 thoughts:
Steelers (Russell Wilson) @ Falcons (Kirk Cousins)— battle of veteran QB’s who changed teams.

Jets @ 49ers- Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will last more than four plays this year, but he is on Monday Night Football in Week 1 for second year in a row. 

Rams @ Lions- Rematch of a playoff game from last year; the two QB’s were obviously traded for each other, a trade that has helped both teams.

When do the rookie QB’s start?

Packers vs Eagles, in Brazil- Two teams are playing in a soccer stadium where the home team’s arch-rival wears green uniforms. Because of that, it is an unwritten rule that you never wear green in that stadium. Whoops. 

Author: Armadillo Sports

I've been involved in sports my whole life, now just write about them. I like to travel, mostly to Las Vegas- they have gambling there.

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