2023 NFL
Week 13
Thursday’s game
Seahawks (6-5) @ Cowboys (8-3)
— Seattle lost last two games, scoring 16-13 points.
— Seahawks scored 13-13-3-16-13 points in losses, 20+ in wins.
— Seahawks were outscored 80-16 in second half of their losses.
— Last five games, Seattle converted 17-64 third down plays.
— Seattle is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 14-9-1 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog (2-2 TY).
— Geno Smith is 28-34 as an NFL starter, 16-16 with Seattle.
— Seahawks are 3-5 ATS in last eight NFC West home games.
— Seattle is 3-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six games.
— Eight Dallas wins were by combined score of 298-87 (37-11 average).
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 37.3 ppg in wins.
— Dallas won its four home games TY by 20-35-23-32-35 points.
— Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite (5-0 TY)
— Cowboys are +11 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
— QB Prescott is 72-42 as an NFL starter.
— Last three games, Cowboys are 19-38 on third down.
— NFC East favorites are 10-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4-1
— Seattle won four of last five series games.
— Seahawks covered three of last four visits to Dallas.
— under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.
Sunday’s games
Chargers (4-7) @ Patriots (2-9)
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— LA is 2-5 since its bye, with three losses by 3 points.
— Three of Bolts’ four wins were by 7+ points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 4-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Staley, Bolts are 9-10-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Chargers have ten takeaways (+7) in wins, three (minus-7) in losses.
— Herbert is 29-32 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 14-56 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 12-18-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4
— Patriots lost seven of their last eight games (1-7 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 106-43 in first half of those games.
— NE lost last three games by 3-4-3 points.
— Last two games, Patriots scored one TD on 20 drives.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-34 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-99 without Brady.
— Mac Jones is 18-25 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots held opponents to 264-220 yards.
— Under is 8-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 9-16 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 10-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-5 over
— New England won last seven series games.
— Chargers are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Foxboro.
— Under is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
Lions (8-3) @ Saints (5-6)
— Lions are 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 3-1 ATS as home favorite (3-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 30-14-1 ATS overall.
— Last two games, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7)
— Last three games, Lions ran ball for 169.3 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 24 of last 67 third down plays (35.8%).
— Goff is 64-51-1 as an NFL starter, 20-20-1 with the Lions.
— over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— NFC North favorites are 7-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5
— Saints lost last two games, scoring 19-15 points.
— Saints were outscored 38-12 in first half of those games.
— New Orleans is 4-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have 12 offensive TD’s on their last 54 drives.
— Last seven games, New Orleans is +6 in turnovers.
— Last four games, Saints were 23-54 on third down.
— Saints split their four home games SU this season.
— NO is 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY)
— Last three games, Saints gave up 169.7 rushing yards/game.
— under is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.
— NFC South home teams are 4-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5
— Saints won last two meetings, 35-29/52-38.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to New Orleans.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Falcons (5-6) @ Jets (4-7)
— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta’s last three losses were by 5-3-2 points.
— underdogs covered Atlanta’s last six games.
— Atlanta is 1-3 SU on road this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three games, Falcons were 21-40 on third down.
— Last eight games, Atlanta is minus-8 in turnovers (8-16)
— Atlanta is 17-23-3 in last 43 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games vs AFC opponents.
— Ridder is 7-6 as an NFL starting QB.
— Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total.
— NFC South favorites are 4-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4-2
— #3 QB Boyle (0-4 as NFL starter) gets another start here.
— Jets lost last four games, 27-6/16-12/32-6/34-13.
— In five post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 58 drives.
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6-12-6-13 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 147-76 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-22 ATS as an underdog
— Last ten games, Jets converted 30-132 third down plays.
— Jets have scored ten TD’s, have 42 3/outs on 121 drives.
— Boyle is 0-4 as an NFL starter; Trevor Siemian is backup.
— Jets are 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC East underdogs are 4-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
— Falcons won four of last five series games.
— Atlanta won 25-20/10-7 in last two games at the Jets.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Cardinals (2-10) @ Steelers (7-4)
— Arizona is 1-8 SU/3-6 ATS in its last nine games
— Last four games, Arizona was outscored 69-30 in first half.
— Last four games, Cardinals are 13-50 on third down.
— Last ten games, Arizona gave up 27.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 21 of last 25 games SU (10-12 ATS in last 21).
— Murray is 26-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 15-18 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Last eight games, Cardinals allowed 35 TD’s on 107 drives.
— Over is 7-4 in last 11 Arizona games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 6-6. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5-1
— Steelers won/covered five of their last seven games.
— They fired their offensive coordinator last week.
— Steelers are 4-2 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Steelers are 16-19 ATS last 35 games as a home favorite.
— Last week was first time TY Pittsburgh outgained an opponent.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 166-205-172-153 yards.
— Last ten games, Steelers have a +12 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 6-2 ATS in last eight games vs NFC teams.
— Eight of ten Steeler games stayed under the total.
— QB Pickett is 14-9 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North home favorites are 10-2-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5
— Steelers won last four meetings, covered last three.
— Cardinals lost 25-13/28-15 in last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Colts (6-5) @ Titans (4-7)
— Indianapolis won last three games, giving up 13-6-20 points.
— They outscored opponents 44-16 in first half of those games.
— Colts allowed 20 or less points in its wins, 29+ in losses.
— QB Minshew is 12-19 as an NFL starter, 4-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered three of four true road games TY.
— In its last three games, Indy was +5 in turnovers (7-2)
— Colts are 10-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s last six games.
— Colts are 2-6 ATS in last eight AFC South road games.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 8-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5
— Titans lost five of their last seven games SU.
— Tennessee is 3-0 SU at home TY, winning by 3-24-5 points.
— Titans are 3-0 scoring 27+ points, 1-7 scoring 17 or less.
— Last six games, Tennessee converted 19-70 on third down.
— Titans are 4-0 SU/ATS at home this season.
— Tennessee is 0-3 SU/ATS this year coming off a win.
— Titans are minus-4 in turnovers (7-11) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under total.
— Titans are 5-7 ATS in last 12 AFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-3
— Colts (+2) beat Tennessee 23-16 at home in Week 5.
— Indy ran ball for 193 yards, converted 8-13 on third down.
— Titans won four of last five series games.
— Colts are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 visits to Nashville.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Dolphins (8-3) @ Commanders (4-8)
— Dolphins won three of their last four games.
— Miami outscored last three opponents 37-7 in second half.
— Favorites are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games.
— Miami scored 31+ points in six of eight wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— Last seven games, Miami is minus-7 in turnovers (9-16).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 42 TD’s on 116 drives.
— Miami outscored last four opponents 47-17 in second half.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-5 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— over is 3-2 in their true road games.
— Tagovailoa is 29-16 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
— Washington lost eight of last ten games SU (2-4 ATS last six)
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator after last game.
— Washington is 1-7 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last two weeks, Commanders are minus-7 in turnovers (0-7).
— Last four weeks, Commanders are 35-72 on third down.
— Washington is 10-15 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Last ten games, Commanders were outscored 144-72 in 1st half.
— four of their last five games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-8 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 6-3 ATS in last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 9-3
— Teams split their last four meetings.
— All four games stayed under the total.
— Teams also split last four games played here.
Broncos (6-5) @ Texans (6-5)
— Broncos won last five games, giving up 17-9-22-20-12 points.
— Three of those five wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Last three games, Denver is +11 in turnovers (14-3).
— Broncos outscored last four opponents 61-33 in first half.
— Denver is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS on road this season.
— Last three weeks, Denver allowed 155.7 rushing yards/game.
— Broncos are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Denver is 17-13-1 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last seven Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 123-76-1 as an NFL starter, 10-16 with Denver.
— AFC West favorites are 10-11 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5
— Houston won three of its last four games.
— Texans’ last five games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3 points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their last nine games.
— Last two games, Houston is 15-26 on third down.
— Texans won four of their last five home games.
— Houston is 2-11 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Last four weeks, Texans scored 27.8 points/game.
— Houston is 16-22-2 in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— Stroud is 6-5 as an NFL starter.
— First five games, Texans were +5 in turnovers; last six games, minus-4
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3
— Denver won four of last five series games.
— Broncos won/covered two of last three visits to Houston.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Panthers (1-10) @ Buccaneers (4-7)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants on offense this week.
— Carolina is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7.
— Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 119-49 in first half.
— In five post-bye games, Panthers scored four TD’s on 46 drives.
— In five post-bye games, Carolina scored 15-13-13-10-10 points.
— Carolina is 9-19-1 ATS in last 29 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-9), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Last five games, Carolina was held to 224-275-213-187-258 yards.
— Panthers are 11-14 ATS in last 25 NFC South road games.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 141-88 in second half of games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5
— Bucs lost six of last seven games (4-1 ATS last five)
— Bucs are 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points.
— Tampa Bay is 2-3 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Bucs have 17 takeaways in 11 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last two games, opponents were 6-23 on third down.
— Bucs are 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC South home games.
— Under is 8-3 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS TY in games coming off a loss.
— Mayfield is 36-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1
— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Panthers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-16 ATS
49ers (8-3) @ Eagles (10-1)
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— SF scored 34-27-31 points in winning its three post-bye games.
— Last three weeks, 49ers were +6 in turnovers (6-0)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 129-76 in 2nd half.
— SF ran ball for 169 yards LW, their best since Week 5.
— 49ers are 12-10-1 ATS in last 23 games as road favorites (3-2-1 TY).
— SF is 13-12 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— 49ers played on Thanksgiving, had little extra prep time for this.
— 49ers are 8-9 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 15-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5
— Eagles won 10 of first 11 games (6-2-3 ATS)
— Eagles trailed at halftime last two weeks, both times 17-7.
— Philly ran for 185 yards LW, their most YR since Week 3.
— Last seven games, Philly is minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last five games, Eagles have 21 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS as an underdog.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-14 SU.
— Eagles are 10-8-3 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Hurts is 35-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Eagles were minus-4 in turnovers in only loss (to Jets)
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5
— Eagles beat San Francisco 31-7 last year in the playoffs.
— Eagles won three of last four series games.
— 49ers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.
Browns (7-4) @ Rams (5-6)
— Unclear which QB will start; they have injury issues.
— Browns are 5-2 since their bye week.
— Browns won/covered three of last four games.
— Last two games, Browns scored 13-12 points (2 TD’s/23 drives)
— Last six weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 136.2 yards/game.
— Cleveland has run 17.3 more plays/game than opponents TY.
— Browns are 8-2-2 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 allowing 24+.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Opponents have converted only 38-140 third down plays.
— over is 4-2 in last six Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 17-11-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5
— Rams won last two games, giving up 16-14 points.
— First time this year Rams won consecutive games.
— LA is 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 1-6 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 2-3 SU/1-3-1 ATS at home this season.
— Rams are 4-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 78-35 in 2nd half of their losses.
— Rams outscored last two opponents 26-9 in second half.
— Stafford is 24-16 as a starter with the Rams.
— Rams are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven games.
— LA is 4-8-2 ATS last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-3-1
— Rams won/covered four of last five series games.
— Last two times Browns visited Rams, games were in St Louis.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Chiefs (8-3) @ Packers (5-6)
— Chiefs split last four games, after a 6-1 start.
— Last four games, Chiefs were outscored 41-17 in second half.
— KC has outscored opponents 186-80 in first half.
— Chiefs have 11 takeaways in their wins (+1), 3 in losses (minus-4)
— KC is 12-15-1 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs held eight of last ten foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
— This season, Chiefs are 4-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 83-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 9-2
— Packers won three of last four games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay is 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS at home this year.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Last four games, Green Bay is 27-55 on third down.
— since 2018, Packers are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Jordan Love is 5-7 as an NFL starter.
— Green Bay is 3-6 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Packers are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Last three games, Green Bay gave up 205-150-140 rushing yards.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— This is Mahomes’ first game at Lambeau Field.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Bengals (5-6) @ Jaguars (8-3)
— Bengals lost last three games, giving up 30-34-16 points.
— QB Burrow is out for the year.
— QB Browning was 27-43/295 passing since Burrow got hurt.
— Last week was Browning’s first NFL start.
— Bengals are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last seven games, Bengals are +8 in turnovers. (14-6)
— Cincinnati is 2-3 SU/ATS on road this year (both losses by 3 points)
— Cincinnati is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 15-9-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Three of Bengals’ last four road games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5
— Jaguars won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Last two games, Jags outscored foes 26-7 in first half.
— Jacksonville scored 9-17-3 points in losses, 20+ points in wins.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last six games, opponents are 18-67 on third down.
— Jaguars converted only 22 of last 76 third down plays.
— Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-51-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-25 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
— Cincinnati won six of last eight series games.
— Bengals are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Jacksonville.
— This is their first visit to Jacksonville since 2017.
— Over is 6-3-2 in last eleven meetings.
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Big Dawg’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Saturday
2023 record: 16-19-1, minus 149
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Armadillo’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Sunday morning.
2023 record: 3-6, minus 108 ______________________________
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