NFL

football


2021 NFL
Week 7 NFL
Thursday game
Denver
(3-3) @ Cleveland (3-3)
— Denver lost last three games, outscored 51-20 in first half. 
— Two of their three wins were against a rookie QB.
— Denver has one takeaway in last three games (-5).
— Last three years, Denver is 11-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last five weeks, Denver converted only 16-62 third down plays.
— Four of six Denver games stayed under the total.
— Strangely, this is first time this year Broncos are an underdog.

— Browns lost last two games, giving up 47-37 points.
— Browns are banged up and on a short week, tough combination.
— Cleveland outscored foes 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Browns gave up 21 or fewer points in wins, 32-47-37 in losses.
— Cleveland is 4-6 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
— Last two games, opponents converted 14-25 third down plays.
— AFC North home favorites are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Denver won eight of last nine series games.
— Browns won last three visits here, by 10-4-3 points; last visit was 2015.
— Cleveland won last meeting, 17-16 in Denver, in 2018.
— Last three series games were decided by 5 or fewer points.

Sunday games
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Baltimore (5-1)
— Cincinnati won three of its last four games. 
— Bengals have had a TD play of 31+ yards in all six games.
— Cincy outscored last four opponents 66-30 in 2nd half. 
— Last three years, Bengals are 8-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cincy’s two losses were both by three points.
— Last five Bengal games stayed under the total.

— Baltimore won last four games, scoring 28.6 ppg. 
— Four of their six games were decided by 1 or 2 points, or in OT. 
— Last 6+ years, Ravens are 18-22-2 ATS as home favorites. 
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 17-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Last four years, Ravens are 4-8 ATS in AFC North home games.
— Last four games, Ravens outscored foes 47-23 in 2nd half.

— Ravens won last five series games, last three by total of 114-19.
— Bengals lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 3-6-24 points.

Carolina (3-3) @ NY Giants (1-5)
— Carolina lost last three games after 3-0 start, giving up 30.3 ppg.
— Under Rhule, Panthers are 8-2 ATS on the road.
— Carolina outscored opponents 79-37 in first half.
— Last three games, Panthers were outscored 60-35 in second half.
— Under is 4-2 in Carolina games this season.
— Carolina is 15-12 ATS last 27 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Panthers blocked a punt for a TD last week.
— NFC South road favorites are 2-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Giants lost last two weeks, giving up 44-38 points.
— Giants lost first three home games, by 14-3-27 points.
— Big Blue is 4-16 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Giants are 8-15-1 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Giants have been outscored 58-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Opponents have started 8 drives in Giant territory (minus-7).
— NFC East home underdogs are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Carolina won last three series games, scoring 38-38-33 points.
— Carolina won four of six meetings with Giants in New Jersey.
— Panthers’ coach Rhule was a Giants’ assistant in 2012.
— Teams’ last meeting was in 2016.

Washington (2-4) @ Green Bay (5-1)
— Washington lost 3 of last 4 games, giving up 33-31 points last 2 games. 
— Washington allowed 34.3 ppg in its last four games. 
— Washington opponents converted 52-90 on third down (57.8%).
— Last 3+ years, Washington is 12-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 8-15-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
— NFC East teams are 7-1 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Green Bay won last five games (4-0-1 ATS), scoring 28.3 ppg.
— Last three weeks, Green Bay ran ball for 139.3 yards/game. 
— Packers are 2-0 SU at home TY, winning by 18-10 points.
— Green Bay is 12-6 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Last three Packer games stayed under the total.
— Last four games, Packers have 21 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 10.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Washington last last five games in Lambeau, three by 18+ points.
— Washington’s last win in Green Bay was 1986.

Kansas City (3-3) @ Tennessee (4-2)
— KC scored 31+ points in four of its six games.
— Chiefs are scoring 36 ppg on road (2-1 SU).
— Chiefs have given up 29+ points in five of six games.
— KC has scored 23 TD’s on 54 drives this season.
— Chiefs turned ball over 14 times in last five games (-10)
— Four of six Chief games went over the total.
— KC has 24 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 30.
— AFC West road favorites are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Tennessee won four of last five games, scoring 30.6 ppg.
— Last four weeks, Titans ran ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— Titans had 7 turnovers first three games, only one in last three.
— Tennessee have only two TD plays longer than 18 yards.
— Last four years, Titans are 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— Over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games. 
— AFC South home underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Titans won four of last five series games.
— Teams split two playoff meetings, in ’17/’19.
— Teams split last four series games in Nashville.
— Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points.  

Atlanta (2-3) @ Miami (1-5)
— Last ten years, Atlanta is 7-3 ATS coming off a bye.
— Falcons have been outscored 90-45 in 2nd half of games. 
— Last two games, Atlanta converted 19-30 3rd down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Falcons are 13-21 ATS in true road games.
— Last 3+ years, Atlanta is 9-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 5-12 ATS vs AFC teams.
— NFC South favorites are 4-9 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Miami lost last five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Miami has only ten TD’s this season, on 58 drives. 
— Last 5+ years, Dolphins are 14-9-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Miami has given up 39 plays of 20+ yards, has only 24 themselves.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 7-10 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Three of last four Dolphin games went over the total.

— Dolphins are 9-4 against Atlanta, winning 27-23/20-17 in last two.
— Falcons are 2-6 in Miami; last visit here was 2013.

NJ Jets (1-4) @ New England (2-4)
— Jets are 0-2 in true games, losing 19-14 @ Carolina, 26-0 @ Denver.
— Jets have been outscored 75-13 in first half. 
— Last six years, Jets 11-23-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four years, Jets were 3-8-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Last 12 years, Jets are 4-8 ATS coming off a bye. 
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 8-18 ATS so far this season. 

— Patriots lost three of their last four games. 
— Patriots’ two wins are both over rookie QB’s.
— New England scored 25-29 last two games, after 17.8 ppg in first four.
— Last four games, Patriots are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last three games, New England allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards.
— Belichick’s career record without Brady: 64-76 SU

— Patriots beat Jets 25-6 in Swamp Stadium, in Week 2.
— Jets outgained NE 336-260, but were minus-4 in turnovers.
— New England won last 12 series games; 8 of last 9 were by 14+ points.
— Jets lost last 10 visits to Foxboro; their last win here was in ’10 playoffs.

Detroit (0-6) @ LA Rams (5-1)
— Detroit is winless, but is 3-3 against the spread. 
— Last four games, Lions were outscored 47-6 in first half.
— Detroit gave up at least 7.3 yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Last three years, Detroit is 6-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four Detroit games stayed under the total.
— GM of Lions (Holmes) worked for the Rams the last 18 years.

— Rams won last two games, scoring 26-38 points.
— LA threw for 8.5+ yards/pass attempt in 4 of 6 games.
— Last two weeks, Rams converted 4-21 on 3rd down— not good.
— Last three years, LA is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 5-1 in Rams’ games.
— Last 11 years, Rams are 7-4 ATS as double digit favorites.

— These two QB’s were traded for each other last winter.
— Teams split last ten series games.
— Lions lost 41-34/21-14 in last two road series games.

Philadelphia (2-4) @ Las Vegas (4-2)
— Eagles lost four of their last five games.
— Last four years, Eagles are 6-9 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Philly converted 7-23 on 3rd down.
— Last two games, Philly averaged only 4.7/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five weeks, Eagles were outscored 84-36 in first half.
— NFC East teams are 7-1 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Raiders ended chaotic week LW with 34-24 win at Denver.
— Raiders threw for 348 yards LW, were +4 in turnovers.
— Raiders are 4-2, but trailed 14-0 or 14-3 in four of six games.
— Las Vegas outscored opponents 96-67 in 2nd half/OT of games.
— Raiders are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as home favorites.
— Since moving to Las Vegas, over is 8-1-1 in Raider home games. 
— AFC West teams are 1-6 ATS in non-divisional home games.

— Philly won three of last four series games.
— Eagles are 2-3 vs Raiders in Los Angeles/Oakland- they won last visit to Oakland 49-29 in 2013- Nick Foles threw seven TD passes.

Houston (1-5) @ Arizona (6-0)
— Texans lost last five games, giving up 30.2 ppg. 
— Houston is 0-3 on road, losing 21-31, 0-40, 3-31 (1-2 ATS).
— Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last five games, Houston was outscored 95-17 in 2nd half.
— Last three games, Texans are minus-7 in turnovers (9-2)
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 8-18 ATS so far this season.
— First-time head coaches are 17-23 ATS this season.
— AFC South road underdogs are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Arizona won its first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Cardinals have 22 TD’s on 61 drives this season.
— Arizona has 157 points on 27 drives to red zone (5.81)
— Last 11 years, Arizona is 0-2 ATS as double digit favorites.
— Arizona has 26 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 18.
— Last four games, Cardinals are +8 in turnovers.
— Cardinals are only unbeaten team in NFL.

— JJ Watt, DeAndre Hopkins are former Texans’ stars.
— Home side won all four series games.
— Texans lost 28-21/27-24 in two visits to Arizona.

Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (5-1)
— Chicago allowed 34-26-24 in losses, 17 or less in wins.
— All three of their losses this year were by 10+ points.
— Last three games, Bears ran ball for 188-143-140 yards.
— Chicago has been outscored 88-46 in second half of games.
— Last three years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Bears converted 12-43 third down plays.
— Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.

— Bucs gave up 29.3 ppg to veteran #1 QB’s (Prescott, Ryan, Stafford).
—.Bucs gave up 18.7 ppg to suspect/backup QB’s (Jones/Brissett/Hurts)
— Bucs won their home games this year, by 2-23-28 points.
— Buccaneers have 23 TD’s on 63 drives this season.
— Last five games, Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers. 
— Average total in Tampa Bay’s first five games: 56.5
— Over is 4-2 in Tampa Bay games this season.
— Bucs played on Thursday LW, had extra time to prep/rest.
— NFC South home teams are 2-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Buccaneers lost 20-19 in Chicago LY.
— Chicago won five of last seven series games.
— Bears lost 36-10/29-7 in last two visits to Tampa.

Indianapolis (2-4) @ San Francisco (2-3)
— Colts covered four of their last five games.
— Indy is 9-7-1 ATS last 17 games as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Colts averaged 10.5/9.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Colts have 11 takeaways in last five games (+7)
— Colts are 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
— Last three weeks, Colts outscored opponents 27-9 in first half. 
— AFC South road underdogs are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— 49ers lost last three games, giving up 25 ppg.
— Last two games, SF converted 5-25 third down plays.
— Niners are 0-7 ATS last seven games as home favorites. 
— 49ers lost both home games, 30-28 (Green Bay), 28-21 (Seattle).
— 49ers had 8 plays of 20+ yards in opener, total of only 11 last four games.
— Last four years, 49ers were 11-5 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Niners have only two takeaways (-6) in first five games.
— Last two years, 49ers won their post-bye game (31-3/23-20).

— Colts won last four series games, by average of 25-12.
— Indy won 28-3/27-7 in last two visits to Santa Clara.

New Orleans (3-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
— This is Saints sixth game, in six different cities.
— Saints scored 38-28-33 points in wins, 7-21 in losses.
— Underdogs won/covered four of their five games.
— Saints scored TD’s on 13 of 14 red zone drives.
— Last six years, Saints are 16-7 ATS as road favorites.
— Last 12 years, NO is 8-3-1 ATS in post-bye games.
— New Orleans has 10 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 21.
— NFC South road teams are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Seahawks lost four of their last five games.
— Smith is 12-20 as NFL starter; 29 of those games were in 2013-14.
— Seattle is 0-2 at home (33-30 OT/Titans, 26-17 Rams).
— Last 11 years, Seattle is 10-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Seattle has 29 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 22.
— Last three games, opponents converted 9-38 on third down.
— Third straight primetime game for Seattle.

— Teams split 16 series games.
— Saints lost three of last four visits to Seattle, winning last visit 33-27 in ’19. 

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