Week 3 games
Rams (1-1) @ 49ers (0-2)— SF didn’t score a TD (0 TD, 4 FGA on 23 drives) in first two games. Niners are 9-16 vs spread in last 25 home games; under is 23-10 in their last 33. LA split its first two home games, scoring 66 points, but defense allowed 229 rushing yards in loss to Washington LW. First road game for Rams, who are 2-6 in last eight games vs 49ers- they’re 1-7-1 in last nine visits to Bay Area. LA is 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 road openers (2-0 when favored). Last four years, Rams are 10-15-1 vs spread on road- since 2011, they’re 1-4 as a road favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in LA’s road games the last three years. Rams’ OC LaFleur, 49ers’ DC Saleh were roommates as grad assistants at Central Michigan; LaFleur worked for coach Shanahan before lot of familiarity.
Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) (@ London)— Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week.
Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2)—Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less.
Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2)— In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears?
Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2)— Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games.
Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)— First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread.
Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)— These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games.
Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)— New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite.
Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1)— Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening win LW; their two TD drives were only 13-35 yards. Bucs converted 8-15 on 3rd down, forced four turnovers (+3). Bucs won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 11-4-19 points- teams haven’t met since 2014. Tampa Bay is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 road openers (8-2 in last 10 as a dog in AO’s). Last 3+ years, NFC North home favorites are 29-14-2 vs spread outside their division.
Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (2-0)— Short week for Detroit team that ran ball 59 times in first couple games, as they try to take some stress off QB Stafford. Since 2011, Lions are 2-8-1 as a home underdog; they’re 15-31 on 3rd down this season and scored TD on either defense/special teams in both games. Falcons are 4-4 as road favorites under Quinn; they threw ball for 9.6/7.2 ypp in first two games. Atlanta is +13 in turnovers in its last 18 regular season games. Under is 14-9 in their last 23 road games. Over is 24-17 in Detroit’s last 41 home games. Atlanta won three of last four games with Detroit; their last meeting was a 22-21 Lion win in England three years ago. Falcons won three of last four visits to the Motor City.
Giants (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)— Giants scored one TD on 19 drives in losing its first two games by 16-14 points- they’ve run ball 30 times for 97 yards this season. Big Blue is 3-6-1 in last 10 NFC East road games, 5-9-2 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 1-3-1 under McAdoo. Philly is 13-4 in last 17 series games, 5-1 in last six; Giants lost last three visits here by combined score of 78-26. Iggles are 6-3 in last nine home openers. Philly was favored in only 2 of 8 home games LY; they’re since 2012, they’re 12-15-1 as a home favorite (1-1 under Pederson). Eagles are 5-9-1 in last 15 NFC East home games- they ran ball 17 times LW, dropped back to pass 52 times- they need more balance. Under is 10-6 in Eagles’ last 16 home games.
Seahawks (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)— Seattle scored 10 or fewer points in five of their last nine road games; since 2011, they’re 11-5-5 as a road underdog. Seahawks scored only one TD in two games this year, then they missed the PAT after that one, but they also held Packers to 17 points, so the defense is still very potent. Tennessee ran ball for 179 yards LW in easy win in Jacksonville; Since 2013, Titans are 5-9-1 as a home favorite, they’re 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional home fave; over is 9-6-2 in their last 17 home games. Seahawks won six of last seven series games; this is their first visits to Nashville since ’05. Under is 10-7 in Seattle’s last 17 road games. Last 4+ years, NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 14-28-4 against the spread.
Chiefs (2-0) @ Chargers (0-2)— Chargers lost first two games when they missed FG’s in last minute of both games; Bolts are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall- they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a home underdog. Chargers ran ball for only 108 yards on 36 carries in first two games; over last decade, LA is 1-6 as a home dog in divisional games. Kansas City threw for 584 yards in winning first two games; they scored 25-21 points just in second half the last two weeks. Chiefs are 11-2 as a road favorite under Reid- they’re 10-2 vs spread in AFC West road games the last four years. Chiefs won last six series games, winning last three visits to San Diego, by 3-30-10 points. Over is 9-6-1 in Chiefs’ last 16 road games.
Bengals (0-2) @ Packers (1-1)— Cincy is first NFL team since 1939 Eagles to start season wth two home games and not score TD in either one- they had extra time to prep after Thursday nite loss to Houston and its rookie QB- now they visit Rodgers/Packers, who are coming off bad loss in Atlanta. Green Bay is 5-6 vs spread the last two years when they’re coming off a loss- they have injury issues on offensive line. Packers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Bengals won last three games vs Packers by 7-7-4 points; they’re 3-4 in Wisconsin, but 2 of 3 wins came in Milwaukee, not Lambeau Field- they’re 1-4 in Green Bay. Cincy is 6-2-1 in last nine road openers.
Raiders (2-0) @ Redskins (1-1)— Oakland is 4-1 as a road favorite under Del Rio; they won first two games this year by 10-25 points, scoring nine TD’s on 19 drives. Raiders are just 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Washington allowed 538 passing yards in splitting first two games; they blew 13-0 lead in LA last week, but scored in last 2:00 to even their record. Redskins are 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog— over is 7-2 in their last nine home games. Road team won last six series games; Raiders won last three visits here by 1-12-3 points- Redskins’ last home series win was in 1986. Oakland hasn’t turned ball over yet in ‘17; they averaged 7.4/8.2 yards/pass attempt in their two games this season.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)— Arizona is a home underdog for first time in three years; they’re 4-2 as home dog under Arians. Redbirds scored three TD’s, turned ball over five times on 24 drives this year. Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 home games. Dallas got squashed LW in Denver, giving up 178 yards on ground, 202 in air. Under is 13-4 in their last 17 road games. Cowboys are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite. Arizona won last four series games, with three wins by one point or in OT; Dallas lost its last three visits here- their last win in the desert was in 2006. Redbirds won/covered three of last four home openers. Last 3+ years, NFC East non-divisional road favorites are 13-5 vs spread outside their division.
2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
T) 11-11 5-4 10-20-1 3-3
|Armadillo’s football tips
Selections are posted on Saturdays.Season bet: Rams, over 5.5 wins
2017 bankroll: 2-1, plus 27 prescotts
|Big Dawg’s selections
Selections are posted on Saturdays.
….2017 bankroll: 0-3, minus 99 mannings
Week 3 spreads:
Rams (-2.5, 40) @ 49ers
Ravens (-4, 40) vs Jaguars (England)
Browns (-1.5, 40.5) @ Colts
Steelers (-7.5, 45.5) @ Bears
Dolphins (-6.5, 41) @ Jets
Broncos (-3, 40.5) @ Bills
Texans @ Patriots (-13.5, 44)
Saints @ Panthers (-6, 44)
Buccaneers @ Vikings (NL- Bradford)
Falcons (-3.5, 50) @ Lions
Giants @ Eagles (-3.5, 44)
Seahawks @ Titans (-2.5, 43.5)
Chiefs (-3, 45.5) @ Chargers
Bengals @ Packers (-9, 45)
Raiders @ Redskins (-3, 54)
Cowboys (-3, 47) @ Cardinals