Week 12 games
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4)— Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.
Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)— Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.
Giants (2-8) @ Redskins (4-6)— Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.
Browns (0-10) @ Bengals (4-6)— Cincy (-3) crushed Browns 31-7 in Cleveland in Week 4; they outgained Browns 350-215, their 6th straight series win. Browns lost last two visits to Cincy, by 31-10/31-17 scores. Cleveland is 2-8 vs spread this season, 0-3 as a road favorite, losing away games by 14-3-16-14 points. In their last five games, Browns are 18-68 on 3rd down. In their last five games, Bengals have run 27 less plays per game than their opponents- they’ve run ball for only 54 yards per game in their last six games. Cincy is 2-2 at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- their two home wins were by total of five points. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Over is 3-1 in Browns’ road games, 1-3 in Bengal home games. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back from suspension, which should be a big upgrade.
Bears (3-7) @ Eagles (9-1)— Eagles are on fire, winning last eight games, covering last seven; Philly is 4-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-27-10-23-28 points- they+8 in turnovers in their last five games. Chicago lost its last three games, by 8-7-3 points; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-21-8 points, with an OT win in Baltimore. Philly won two series games, 54-11/29-14; Bears’ last series win was in 2011- they won two of last three visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Over is 5-3 in last eight Eagle games, 3-2 in Chicago’s last five. Philly has 3-game lead in NFC East, so they need to guard against complacency, are going for home field edge in playoffs.
Dolphins (4-6) @ Patriots (8-2)— New England also has 3-game lead in AFC East; they’ve won their last six games (5-1 vs spread), are 2-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-8 points, and losses to Chiefs/Panthers. NE has lost field position battle in only one game, and that was by a yard. Miami lost its last four games, by 40-3-24-10 points; Dolphins are 1-3 as road underdogs this year- they have only two takeaways in last four games (-3), were outscored 108-37 in first half of last six games. Patriots won four of last five games with Miami; teams play again in two weeks. Dolphins lost their last eight visits to Foxboro. Home teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six games.
Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (6-4)— I’m assuming Taylor starts at QB; if Peterman starts, just bet on KC. Buffalo lost its last three games, giving up 101 points the last two weeks; Bills are -9 in turnovers in last three games, after being +14 in first seven. Buffalo is 2-2 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with win in Atlanta. Chiefs lost four of last five games after a 5-0 start, still lead AFC West by couple games. KC is 3-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-10 points, with loss to the Steelers. Chiefs won last three series games, by 10-4-8 points; Bills’ last win here was in 2011. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 5-5. Over is 5-3-2 in Chief games; last five Buffalo games also went over.
Buccaneers (4-6) @ Falcons (6-4)— Short week for Falcons after 34-31 win out in Seattle late Monday night. Atlanta won three of last four games, is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Buffalo/Miami, winning other two by 11-20 points. Fitzpatrick starts at QB again for Bucs, who won last two games after a 5-game skid. Tampa Bay is 1-4 on road (won @ Miami), 1-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20 points on foreign soil. Bucs are +7 in turnovers their last three games. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games, winning 23-19/31-24 in last two visits here. Average total in last eight series games, 56.0. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 6-1 in last seven Falcon games.
Panthers (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)— Both teams are off their bye week; Carolina won 27-23/30-20 in its last two post-bye games, Jets lost six of last eight post-bye games. Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 on road, winning by 20-3-3-14 points- their only road loss was in Chicago, when Bear defense scored only two TD’s of the game. Jets lost four of their last five games; they’re last three losses were all by 5 or less points. Gang Green is 3-2 at home, losing to Patriots by 7, Falcons by 5- they’re 5-3-1 as an underdog. Teams split six meetings, with home side winning five of the six. Panthers lost both series meetings here, 48-21/17-6. NFC South non-divisional road favorites are 5-4 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 7-7-1, 2-2-1 at home.
Titans (6-4) @ Colts (3-7)— Titans (-7) ended 11-game losing skid to Colts with 36-22 home win back in Week 6; Tennessee outgained Colts 473-297, but trailed 13-9 at half. Tennessee lost its last nine visits to Indy- their last win here was in 2007. Titans won four of last five games; they are 2-3 on road, scoring 17 or less points in four of those games- they’re 3-4-1 as favorites, 1-2 on road. Indy lost four of last five games but covered last three; Colts are 2-3 at home- four of those five games were decided by exactly three points. Colts are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen post-bye games. Four of Titans’ last five games went over total; under is 3-1 in Indy’s last four games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.
Seahawks (6-4) @ 49ers (1-9)— Short week for banged-up Seattle after 34-31 loss Monday night. Seahawks lost two of last three games, both by a FG- they won last three road games, by 6-17-6 points- they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on road. 49ers won their last game before their bye- they are 1-4 at home, 2-3 as a home underdog, with home losses by 20-2-30-10 points. Seattle (-13) edged 49ers 12-9 back in Week 2; they outgained Niners 312-248- neither team averaged 5.0 yds/pass attempt. Seahawks won last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 16-17-2 points. 49ers lost last four post-bye games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five. Under is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six road games; over is 4-2 in 49ers’ last six games.
Saints (8-2) @ Rams (7-3)— New Orleans won its last eight games after an 0-2 start; Saints are 3-1 in true road games, winning last three by 21-9-37 points. NO ran ball for 151+ yards in five of their last six games; they averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in four of last five games. Rams’ best WR Woods (shoulder) is out for couple of weeks; LA is 2-2 at home this year- they won four of last five games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Teams split last six meetings; Rams lost 49-21 in Superdome LY. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-3 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 3-2-1. Under is 4-1 in Saints’ road games, 3-1 in Rams’ last four games. Saints have 56 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.
Jaguars (7-3) @ Cardinals (4-6)— Jaguars won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss at Jets- they’re 2-1 as road favorites. In the last six games. Jacksonville outscored foes 66-19 in 2nd half. Arizona lost three of last four games; they’re down to #3 QB Gabbert- their TD’s LW came on drives of 17-15-51 yards, all set up by defense/ST. Cardinals are 2-2 at home; they beat 49ers/Bucs by total of 8 points, lost to Dallas/Seattle. Teams split four series games, going 1-1 in each ballpark. Jags lost 27-14 in their last visit here, in 2013. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-6-1 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 5-10, 2-3 at home. Jaguars’ last four games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Cardinals’ last nine.
Broncos (3-7) @ Raiders (4-6)— Denver fired its OC, Oakland fired its DC, Paxton Lynch gets his 3rd NFL start at QB for Broncos; he was 1-1 as a starter LY, is Denver’s 3rd starting QB in 11 games. Denver’s last win was 16-10 (-3) over Oakland in Week 4, game Derek Carr got hurt in. Broncos lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread); they’re 0-4 on road (0-4 vs spread) losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Oakland lost six of its last eight games; they’re 2-2 at home, with last two decided by a single point. Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 games with Raiders; they won five of last six visits to the Black Hole. Raiders are only NFL team in 83 years to have zero INTs in their first 10 games. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.
Packers (5-5) @ Steelers (8-2)— Green Bay scored 14.3 ppg in Hundley’s four starts, losing three of them, all by 9+ points. Pittsburgh won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); 3-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 17-15-23 points and a loss to Jaguars. Green Bay lost four of last five games; they’re 2-2 on road, losing by 11 in Atlanta, 13 in Minnesota- they won in Dallas/Chicago. Steelers won four of last five series games, but loss was in Super Bowl eight years ago. Packers lost their last four visits here- their last win in Pittsburgh was back in 1970. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 4-4. Under is 8-2 in Steeler games this season; over is 6-3 in Packers’ last nine games.
Texans (4-6) @ Ravens (5-5)— Baltimore has five wins, three via shutout; four of their wins are against teams who started QB’s Kizer-Manuel-Hundley-Moore, backup types. Now they face Savage, who fits that same bill. Ravens are 0-3 in games decided by less than 13 points. Baltimore is 2-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite. Houston lost three of last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 3-3-26 points, 3-1 as road underdogs. Ravens are 7-2 vs Houston; home team won last five meetings. Ravens lost last two meetings here, 43-13/25-13. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Over is 6-2 in last eight Houston games, 5-1 in last six Baltimore games.
2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
T) 46-50-1 26-29-2 77-80-2 24-13N
|Armadillo’s football tips
Selections are posted on Saturday
…..2017 bankroll: 6-6, minus 18 mariotas
|Big Dawg’s selections
….2017 bankroll: 16-13, plus 51 brunners
Week 12 games
Vikings (-2, 44.5) @ Lions
Chargers @ Cowboys (-1, 48)
Giants @ Redskins (-7, 44)
Browns @ Bengals (-8.5, 38)
Bears @ Eagles (-13.5, 44)
Dolphins @ Patriots (-16.5, 47)
Bills @ Chiefs (-9.5, 45)
Buccaneers @ Falcons (-8.5, 48.5)
Panthers (-4.5, 39.5) @ Jets
Titans (-3.5, 44) @ Colts
Seahawks (-6.5, 42) @ 49ers
Saints @ Rams (-2.5, 53.5)
Jaguars (-4.5, 38.5) @ Cardinals
Broncos @ Raiders (-5, 43.5)
Packers @ Steelers (-14, 41.5)
Texans @ Ravens (-7, 38)