NFL

football


Week 7
Thursday

Broncos (2-4) @ Cardinals (1-5)— Denver lost its last four games; they’re first team since ’66 Giants (who finished 1-12-1) to allow 270+ RY in consecutive games. Broncos are 0-2 on road, losing by 13-18 points at Ravens/Jets; since ’12 they’re 19-11-1 vs spread as road favorites, 16-9-1 vs NFC teams. Arizona is 0-3 at home, scoring 12.3 ppg (5 TD’s on 30 drives); they’ve yet to gain more than 269 yards in any game this season. Cardinals averaged 0.69 pts/drive on 39 drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, by far worst in NFL. Denver is 8-1-1 in series; last six series games were all decided by 17+ points. Broncos are 3-1 in Arizona, losing last visit here in 2010. Four of last five Bronco games, four of six Cardinal games stayed under. 

Sunday
Titans (3-3) vs Chargers (4-2) (in London)— Longer trip across pond for Charger squad that won 10 of last 11 series games, but they played in Cleveland Sunday so trip was broken up; LA scored 33+ points in six of last eight series wins. Tennessee is 3-3, with all three wins by three points; they lost their last two games, scoring no TD’s on 18 drives on 13-12/21-0 losses- Mariota was sacked 11 times by the Ravens LW. In their last four games, Tennessee had 3-3-6-0 points at halftime. Chargers are 4-2, losing to Chiefs/Rams, who are a combined 11-1; Bolts allowed 35-38 points in their losses. Four of last five Titan games stayed under total; over is 5-1 in Charger tilts. Chargers were last over pond 10 years ago; this will be Titans’ first trip overseas. 

Patriots (4-2) @ Bears (3-2)— Chicago hammered the Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX, but since then they’re 1-7 vs New England, losing 36-7/51-23 in last two series games. Bears are 2-0 at home this year, beating Seattle/Tampa; over last 2+ years, they’re 8-1-2 as home underdogs. Chicago’s two losses this year are by total of four points; three of Chicago’s five games this year were decided by 3 or fewer points. Patriots are 3-0 since Edelman/Gordon were activated, scoring 38-38-43 points. Since ’16, Patriots are 11-6 as road favorites, but they’re 0-2 on road this year, scoring 20-10 in losses to Jaguars/Lions. AFC East teams are 10-8 vs spread outside their division, but 2-6 on road. NFC North teams are 7-6 outside the division, 4-2 at home.

Browns (2-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-3)— Tampa Bay fired its DC Monday; they allowed 30-48-34 points in losing last three games after a 2-0 start; they were -8 in turnovers in last three games, allowing 30-38-24 first half points- they have zero takeaways in last two games.. Bucs allowed 21 TD’s on 55 drives this season, 10 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games. Cleveland got whacked by the Chargers last week, only game they’ve played this year that was decided by more than four points. Browns are 0-2 on road, losing 21-18 at Saints, 45-42 at Raiders- they’ve already played three OT games. Bucs won three of four series games, with Browns losing 17-3/17-14 in two visits here. Over is 5-0 in Tampa games, 2-4 in Cleveland games this season. 

Lions (2-3) @ Dolphins (4-2)— Osweiler threw for 380 yards LW in his first Miami start, so doubt it matters if Tannehill plays or not. Miami is 3-0 at home, winning by 7-8-3 points; under Gase, Dolphins are 9-6-3 vs spread at home, 3-0 this year. Lions won/covered five of last six post-bye games; while with Patriots, Patricia’s defense held Miami to 17 or fewer points in five of last seven meetings. Lions covered their last four games but are 0-2, with losses by 3-2 points at 49ers/Cowboys- they’re 3-0-1 vs spread in last four games on natural grass. Detroit won last two meetings 34-27/20-16, after losing seven of first nine meetings; Lions are 1-4 in South Beach, winning last visit here in ’10. Four of last five Detroit games went over total. 

Panthers (3-2) @ Eagles (3-3)— Philly won five of last seven series games, winning 28-23 in Charlotte LY; Panthers lost four of six visits here, with last one in ’14. Carolina is 0-2 on road (3-0 at home), losing 31-24 in Atlanta; 23-17 at Redskins; since ’12, Panthers are 20-9 as road underdogs- they allowed 26.5 ppg in last four games. Philly had three extra days to prep after being Giants last Thursday; under Pederson, Eagles are 6-4-1 as home favorites, 0-2 this season. Eagles allowed 12-16-13 points in their wins, 23+ points in losses; they outscored opponent in 2nd half in five of six games. Philly has 2nd-best red zone defense (3.52/drive), trailing only Miami. Three of last four Carolina games went over total.

Bills (2-4) @ Colts (1-5)— Rookie QB Allen (elbow) is out here; Bills have to start Anderson, as Peterman is hideous. In their last three games, Buffalo scored two TD’s on 31 drives, with TD drives of 47-32 yards; they’ve converted 27.9% on 3rd down this year. Bills were +3/+2 in turnovers in their wins, are combined -4 in four losses; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, with losses by 44-22-7 points on road, and an upset win in Minnesota. Indy lost its last four games, giving up 37-38-42 points in last three games; they scored 20+ pts in second half of last three games. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost their last five visits here, with three of those losses by 16+ points. Last four Buffalo games stayed under; Colts’ last three games all went over. 

Bengals (4-2) @ Chiefs (5-1)— KC scored 31 second half points in Foxboro Sunday but still lost; they’re 6-0 vs spread this year, 2-0 as home favorites, winning 38-27/30-14 over 49ers/Jaguars. Chiefs covered eight of last ten games as home favorites. Bengals scored 27+ points in their four wins, 21-21 in their two losses; Cincy is 18-13-4 vs spread in last 35 games as road underdogs. Last couple years, Bengals are 0-4 vs spread week after losing to the rival Steelers. Cincy won last four series games by average score of 24-11; they split last six visits here. Under Reid, Chiefs are 12-10 vs spread coming off a loss. Over is 4-2 in Chief games, 4-2 in Bengal games. This game got flexed into the Sunday night slot; NBC probably expects another shootout.

Vikings (3-2-1) @ Jets (3-3)— Minnesota allowed 16-21-17 points in its three wins; 27+ in its losses/tie; their three road games were decided by total of nine points. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 8-6 vs spread as road favorites; they have eight takeaways (+4) in their wins, zero (-5) in the other games. Minnesota ran ball for 126 yds/game in wins, tried only 18-6-17 runs in other three games. Jets scored 34-42-48 points in their wins, 12-17-12 in losses (18-40 (45%) on 3rd down in wins, 12-38 (31.6%) in losses). Under Bowles, Gang Green is 17-9-1 vs spread at home, 10-4-1 as home dogs. Jets won eight of 10 series games; Vikings are 0-5 here, with last visit here in ’10. Last three Jet games went over total. 

Texans (3-3) @ Jaguars (3-3)— Houston won its last three games by 3-3-7 points, with couple of OT wins and then a late defensive TD beating Bills LW; team that led at half won all six Texans games. Since 2015, Houston is 10-15 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Jaguars were outscored 70-21 in losing road games last two weeks; Jags are 2-1 at home- they scored 20+ in their wins, were held to 6-14-7 points in losses. Jax is 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. This series has been swept the last seven years; Jaguars swept Texans 29-7/45-7 LY, after going 0-6 vs Houston the previous six years. Under is 4-2 in Texan games this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-11 vs spread so far this season. 

Saints (4-1) @ Ravens (4-2)— Baltimore has outscored opponents 62-15 in 2nd half this year; Ravens won three of last four games, allowing two TD’s on 35 drives in their last three tilts- they’re 2-0 at home, winning 47-3/27-14 over Bills/Broncos. Ravens are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Saints won last four games, covered last three; they’re 2-0 on road, winning 43-37/33-18 at Falcons/Giants. Baltimore won five of last six meetings, with average total in last four meetings, 58.5. Saints are 1-3 vs Ravens here, losing by 7-23-6 points; their lone win was in ’02. Last four Raven games stayed under total; over is 3-2 in Saints games. New Orleans is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine post-bye games, 12-7 in last 19 games as road underdogs. 

Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-2)— Dallas won eight of last ten series games, winning last four by average score of 32-21; Cowboys won their last five visits here, three by 4 or fewer points, but this year, Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 8-11-3 points, at Panthers, Seahawks, Texans- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last ten pre-bye games. Since ’15, Cowboys are 6-8 as road dogs- they’re 11-5-2 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Redskins are 2-10 vs spread in game following their last 12 wins; they scored 23+ points in their three wins, 9-14 in their two losses. Skins are 4-2 in last six games as home favorites- they scored 6 or fewer points in second half of every game this season, outscored 45-24. Under is 4-2 in Dallas games this season. 

Rams (6-0) @ 49ers (1-5)— Under McVay, Rams are 4-4 as road favorites, 1-2 this year, winning on foreign soil by 20-2-3 points at Oakland-Seattle-Denver. LA ran ball for 155-270 yards in last two games, expect them to throw more here, after Rodgers riddled Niners for 425 PY in Monday night’s 33-30 win. 49ers allowed 31 ppg in their last five games, losing last four; they’re 5-8 in last 13 games as home underdogs, splitting pair of home tilts SU this year. Niners ran ball for 147-174 yards in last two games. 49ers are 7-3 in last ten series games, with three of last five games decided by 3 or fewer points. Teams split last four games played here. Rams are first team since ’96 Packers to be double-digit road favorite while playing third straight game on road. 

Monday
Giants (1-5) @ Falcons (3-3)— Atlanta defense allowed 37.5 ppg in last four games, yielding 19 TD’s on foes’ last 39 drives; in four home games, Falcons scored 17 TD’s on 40 drives, averaging 34.5 ppg, but they split those games (over 4-0). Atlanta is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as home favorites. Giants lost their last three games, giving up 33-33-34 points; they’ve been minus in turnovers in five of their last six games. Big Blue is 6-4 in last 10 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year; their road losses are by 7-2 points- their only win was 27-22 in Houston. Giants won five of last seven series games; they’re 7-1 in last eight  visits here, with last one in ’12. Over is 3-1 in last four Giant games, 5-0 in Atlanta’s last five games. 


2018 week-by-week results
HF                      HU        Totals O/U   AFC-NFC
1) 5-6-1          2-2          8-8              2-2
2) 4-6              5-1          8-8               1-1
3) 7-5               3-1          8-8              5-3N
4) 5-5-1           2-2         6-4U           3-1A
5) 7-4               3-0          8-7O           2-0A
6) 3-4               4-4          9-6O          3-1N
T) 31-30-2     19-10     45-43O       12-12

2017 week-by-week results
HF               HU           Totals O/U   AFC-NFC
1)  5-5           3-2         4-11             1-0N
2) 6-6           2-2         6-9-1          3-2A
3) 1-4            8-2         10-5            3-0N
4) 4-7           2-3          8-7-1          2-2
5) 4-7            1-1          6-8             3-0A
6) 3-8           3-0          8-6             3-1N
7) 5-0-2       3-4          7-8              1-1
8) 5-4           0-4          7-6             3-1N
9) 5-2-1       0-3-1      5-8             2-0N
10) 4-3          3-3-1      8-6             5-0N
11) 4-4            1-5          7-7              2-2
12) 7-2-1        1-5         8-8              2-2
13) 5-4            5-2         7-9              2-0A
14) 5-4            4-3         7-8              4-2N
15)  7-2           3-3-1      7-9             4-0N

T) 70-62-2   39-40-3   106-115-2   35-19N


Selections

Armadillo’s football tips
Selections are posted on Saturdays
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2018 bankroll: 3-2-1, plus 24 dawsons
2017 bankroll:
 11-7, plus 99 avellinis
Big Dawg’s selections
Cowboys +1.5…..Bucs -3.5……Panthers +4.5

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2018 bankroll: 9-9, minus 27 norvturners
2012-7 bankroll: 157-124-10, plus 621 pisarciks