NFL

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NFL Week 8
Redskins (1-6) @ Vikings (5-2)— Cousins was 26-30-1 as Washington’s QB from 2012-17; he is 13-9-1 with Minnesota. Vikings scored 36 ppg in winning last three games- they scored 11 TD’s on 20 drives in their last two games. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 25-7-1 as home favorites. Redskins are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog; they split Callahan’s first two games as interim coach, allowing only 25 points- their last four games stayed under the total. Vikings won five of last seven series games, with average total in last six, 58.8; Redskins lost last two visits here, 34-27/29-26. NFC East teams are 5-13 ATS outside their division, 2-2 as road dogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2. NFL double digit favorites are 5-7 ATS this year

Giants (2-5) @ Lions (2-3-1)— Detroit lost its last three games, allowing 33 ppg; five of their six games were decided by 4 or fewer points- three of their last four games went over. Lions are 14-6-2 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite. Giants lost last three games, allowing 30 ppg; they turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games- four of their five losses are by 14+ points- under is 3-1 in their last four games. Under Shurmur, Giants are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs, 1-2 this year. Teams split last eight series games, with last three decided by 11+ points; Giants won four of last five visits to the Motor City- last one was in ’14. NFC East teams are 5-13 ATS outside their division, 2-2 as road dogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2.

Buccaneers (2-4) @ Titans (3-4)— Tampa Bay is playing its 4th straight game away from home, allowing 36 ppg in first three (1-2); their last four games went over the total. Bucs are 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games, 5-7-3 in last 15 games as road dogs; they converted only 8 of last 26 3rd down plays. Tennessee won Tannehill’s first start for them; he averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt LW; Mariota’s best ypa this year is 8.4. Under Vrabel, Titans are 1-4-1 ATS as  home favorites. Titans won nine of 11 series games, losing in ’83/’07; Bucs are 0-3 in Tennessee, losing by 3-20-6 points. NFC South teams are 8-12 ATS outside the division, 5-4 as road dogs; AFC South teams are 11-6, 2-3 as home favorites. 

Chargers (2-5) @ Bears (3-3)— Chargers lost five of last six games, with all five losses by 7 or fewer points; they got stopped on 1-yard line with game on line in last minute in Nashville LW. Under Lynn, Bolts are 6-2-1 ATS as road underdogs. Bears allowed 15 or fewer points in their wins, but 24-36 in last two games; they’re 7-2 as home faves under Nagy (1-2 TY). Chicago threw 54 passes LW, ran ball seven times; they’ll run ball in this game. Bears won six of last seven series games, winning last four meetings here, last three by 11+ points. Chargers’ last win here was in 1970 (20-7), when Gary Garrison caught two TD passes from John Hadl. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2. 

Seahawks (5-2) @ Falcons (1-6)— Atlanta lost its last five games, has bye looming, which could spell the end for former Seattle assistant Quinn. Ryan hurt his foot at end of LW’s game; Schaub (47-45 as NFL starter) is the backup. Falcons are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a home dog, 1-1 this year- they allowed 41.3 ppg the last three weeks. Seattle scored 29 ppg in winning its three road games; they are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as road favorites. In their two losses, Seahawks gave up three defensive TD’s and a punt return TD. Falcons won six of last eight series games, with last meeting a 34-31 Seahawk win in 2017. NFC West road teams are 10-1 ATS outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-6, 2-2 as home underdogs. 

Jets (1-5) @ Jaguars (3-4)— Short week for Jets, who were bludgeoned at home Monday night; Jets’ last four losses were all by 16+ points- they’re 7-13-2 ATS in last 22 games as road underdogs. In their last five games, Jets converted only 9 of 61 third down plays. Jaguars are +6 in turnovers in their three wins, minus-7 in losses; they’re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. Last three years, Jags are 6-11 ATS when coming off a win. Jax beat Jets 31-12 in Swamp LY, snapping 4-game series skid, but Jets lost four of last five visits here. AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division; AFC South home favorites are 2-3. 

Eagles (3-4) @ Bills (5-1)— Eagles lost last two games, giving up 75 points- opponents scored nine TD’s on their last 22 drives. Philly is 0-4 SU on road TY, allowing 29 ppg; under Pederson, they’re 7-9 ATS as a road underdog, 9-12 ATS coming off a loss, 2-6 in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Buffalo is 5-1 SU, with its only loss 16 -10 to the undefeated Patriots; Bills covered four of last five games where spread was 3 or fewer points- under McDermtt, they are 5-4-1 ATS as home favorites. Philly won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four trips to western NY. NFC East teams are 5-13 ATS outside their division, 2-2 as road dogs; AFC East home teams are 4-5 ATS. 

Bengals (0-7) vs Rams (4-3) (in London)— Cincy coach Taylor was an assistant with the Rams LY; his Bengals allowed 250.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Bengals are 0-7 SU (3-4 ATS); only two of their seven losses were by more than 10 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Cincy games. Rams lost three of last four games despite scoring 28.3 ppg; LA is 5-1 ATS in last six games as a double digit favorite, 6-4 ATS in its last ten games vs AFC opponents. Bengals won last three series games, by 9-7-24 points, but teams only play every 4th year. NFC West teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division; AFC North underdogs are 5-4. Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 pre-bye games. 

Cardinals (3-3-1) @ Saints (6-1)— New Orleans won/covered all five Bridgewater starts- they were an underdog in three of the five games. NO won its three home games, by 2-2-7 points; they’re 9-12 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.  Arizona won its last three games after an 0-3-1 start; they’re stepping up in class here. Redbirds are 5-2 ATS this year, 3-0 as road dogs; they ran ball for 174.7 yards/game the last three weeks. Saints won four of last six series games, with average total of 59.3; Cardinals lost last four visits to Bourbon Street- their last win here was in ’96. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-0 ATS; NFC South favorites are 1-5. Brees is expected to practice this week; check his status later this week. 

Raiders (3-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Oakland allowed 30.3 ppg in splitting its last four games, all of which went over the total; they’re 1-2 in true road games, with average total of 56.3. Raiders are playing their 5th straight game away from home, with a bye week in middle- they’re 4-14-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Rodgers averaged 13.2 yards/pass attempt against them LW. Houston won two of last three games despite allowing 28.7 ppg; they’re 7-9 ATS in last 16 games home favorites. Teams split last eight series games; Houston won last meeting 27-14 in ’16 playoffs. Raiders are 2-3 vs Texans here. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2. 

Panthers (4-2) @ 49ers (6-0)— Unbeaten 49ers won their last three games by combined score of 60-10, allowing only one TD on 29 drives; four of their six wins have been on road. Niners held last three foes under 100 passing yards; LW’s game in Washington was played in a downpour. Carolina won/covered all four Allen starts; they scored 71 points in last two games, due in large part to 10 takeaways in those two games (+7). Panthers are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Carolina won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 10-1-20 points; Panthers won last two meetings, 46-27/23-3. NFC South teams are 8-12 ATS outside the division, 5-4 as road dogs; NFC West home favorites are 1-6. 

Broncos (2-5) @ Colts (4-2)— Denver won two of last three games after an 0-4 start; they scored only 22 points in last two games (two TD’s on last 25 drives); they’re 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Broncos are +5 in turnovers in their two wins, -6 in the five losses. Indy won four of its last five games; they’re 7-4-1 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Colts allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, 24 or less in their four wins. Denver won last two meetings 34-20/25-13, but lost six of last seven visits to Indy, winning last one 25-18 in ’17. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; AFC South home favorites are 2-3. 

Browns (2-4) @ Patriots (7-0)— New England is 7-0, with one win by less than 16 points; they’ve allowed three TD’s on 85 drives, are 5-2 ATS this year- they’re 30-14-3 ATS in last 47 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY. Patriots are 17-4 ATS in last 21 games as a double digit favorite. Cleveland is 2-4, but both their wins were on road; they’re 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog. Browns are 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games. NE won seven of last nine series games, winning last one 33-13 in ’16; Browns lost their last four visits to Foxboro, with last one in ’13. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-4 ATS. Not to be obvious, but Kitchens vs Belichick seems like a severe coaching mismatch.

Packers (6-1) @ Chiefs (5-2)— Matt Moore gets his 31st NFL start (15-15), his first with KC; he’s started only five games since 2011. Chiefs had three extra days to prep for this; how much will their offense regress with Mahomes on the bench? Under Reid, Chiefs are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Rodgers averaged 13.2 yards/pass attempt in 42-24 win over Oakland LW; Packers are 11-9 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite- they’re 2-0 on road this year, winning by 10-7 points. Four of Green Bay’s last five games went over. Rematch of Super Bowl I; Chiefs won six of last eight meetings, losing three of last four visits to Arrowhead. NFCNorth teams are 8-4-1 ATS outside the division, 1-2-1 as road favorites; AFC West underdogs are 2-3. 

Dolphins (0-6) @ Steelers (2-4)— Winless Miami covered its last two games; they led 14-9 at the half in Buffalo LW, only lost by a point the week before. Dolphins are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Steelers covered twice in last eight post-bye games; they’re 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. #2 QB Rudolph is back after his concussion. Three of last four Pittsburgh games stayed under the total. Four of six Steeler games were decided by 7 or fewer points. Pitt won six of last eight series games, last of which was a 30-12 playoff win in ’16; Dolphins lost four of last five visits here. AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division; AFC North home favorites are 1-6. 

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Selections

Armadillo’s football tips

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2019 bankroll: minus 35 altuves
Pending future bets:
– Houston Astros (6-1) to win World Series
– Washington Nationals (+180) to win (50 units)
– Miami Dolphins, under 4.5 wins (+$110)

Big Dawg’s selections

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2019 bankroll: 13-9, plus 93 brissets
2012-18 bankroll: 184-148-10, plus 639 pisarciks