NFL

football


Week 15
Thursday
Chargers (10-3) @ Chiefs (11-2)— First place in AFC West is at stake here; Chiefs won last nine series games, winning last four played here, by 12-7-6-13 points. KC won first meeting this year 38-28 (+3.5) in Week 1, even though Bolts outgained them 541-362- Rivers threw for 418 yards, but LA was -2 in turnovers (0-2). Chargers won nine of their last ten games, are 6-0 outside of LA this season; they’re 25-13-1 vs spread in last 39 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Chiefs won six of last seven games; they scored 40-51 points in their two LOSSES this year. KC is 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorites (0-3 this year)- they were outscored in second half of their last our games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Charger games, four of last five KC games went over. 

Saturday
Texans (9-4) @ Jets (4-9)— Houston had its 9-game win streak snapped at home by Indy LW; Texans won their last four road games, three by either 2-3 points- they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as a road favorite (0-2 this year). Texans are +6 in turnovers their last three games, with no giveaways. Jets snapped a 6-game losing skid with win at Buffalo LW; they’re 2-4 at home, with all four losses by 8+ points. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 10-6-1 as home underdog, but 0-2 this year. Houston won last two series games, 23-17/24-17, after losing previous five meetings; Texans lost three of four series games played here. Three of last four Jet games went over the total; six of last nine Houston games stayed under. 

Browns (5-7-1) @ Broncos (6-7)— Cleveland won three of last four games; Gregg Williams is making strong case to be Browns’ coach in ’19. Browns are 1-5 SU on road, 2-3-1 as AU; last four years, they’re 10-19-1 as road dogs. Broncos won three of last four games but lost at 49ers LW, a bad loss; they’re +9 in turnovers in those four games, with only one giveaway. Denver is 3-3 SU at home, 0-2-1 as home favorite- under Joseph, Broncos are 1-5-1 vs spread as AU. Denver won last seven series games, winning last meeting 26-23 in OT three years ago. Browns lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 21+ points. Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under; last six Denver games also stayed under the total. 

Sunday
Dolphins (7-6) @ Vikings (6-6-1)— Minnesota lost four of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home this year- under Zimmer, they’re 21-7 vs spread as home favorites, 4-2 this year. Vikings scored 10-7 points in last two games, scoring only two TD’s on last 23 drives. Dolphins won last two games to get back in playoff race; they lost their last five road games, with four losses by 10+ points; under Gase, Fish are 7-13 as road underdogs, 2-4 this year. Miami is 8-4 in series, winning last three meetings by 4-4-2 points; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Dolphins lost three of last four visits here; they’ll be glad there’s a dome. Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Miami games. 

Raiders (3-10) @ Bengals (5-8)— Not much to see here; Oakland split its last four games after a 1-8 start; they’re 1-6 away from home this year, 2-4 vs spread as road underdogs. Raiders are 3-9-1 vs spread in last 13 games as AU- they fired their GM Monday. Bengals are 0-5 since their bye (2-3 vs spread); Cincy is 3-4 at home, 1-3 as home favorite- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as HF. Bengals held Chargers to 288 TY in 26-21 loss LW, so neither side has quit trying. Cincy won three of last four series games; Raiders lost last two visits here by 24-17 points- their last win here was in ’95. Three of last four Oakland games, four of last six Bengal games went over the total, but both Driskel starts stayed under. 

Buccaneers (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)— Ravens’ QB Jackson (3-1 as starter) sprained ankle late in LW’s OT loss; check status for this- Flacco should be active to play if Jackson doesn’t. Ravens won three of last four games; they’re 4-2 SU at home, 3-3 as HF- last three years, they’re 10-9 as HF. Tampa Bay let Saints slip away LW after leading 14-3 at half; Bucs lost five of last seven games- they led last three at half. Tampa lost last five road games after winning opener in New Orleans- they’re 2-3-1 as AU this year, 3-6-1 last two years. Baltimore won last three series games, by 17-7-31 points; Bucs split their two visits here. Over is 3-1 in Jackson’s starts; four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under. Ravens are tied for #6 seed in AFC. 

Cowboys (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)— Two hot clubs; Dallas won/covered its last five games, Colts won six of last seven. Cowboys are 2-4 SU on road, winning last two- under Garrett, they’re 24-17 vs spread as road underdogs, 3-3 this year. In their last five games, Dallas ran ball for 138.2 ypg. Indy is 4-2 SU at home, 2-3-1 as HF; last four years, Colts are 9-10-1 as HF. lots are -4 in turnovers last three games and ran ball for only 41-50 yards last two weeks; three of their last four wins were by exactly three points. Dallas won last three series games, by 7-3-35 points, winning 42-7 in last meeting in ’14. Cowboys won 38-35 in OT in last visit here, in ’10. Four of last six Dallas games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts’ last four games. 

Lions (5-8) @ Bills (4-9)— Detroit coach Patricia worked for Patriots, so he is familiar with trips to western NY. Lions lost five of their last seven games; they’re 2-4 SU on road, 2-2 as AU; they are 14-20 vs spread in last 34 games as AU. Bills lost six of last eight games; their last three were all decided by 4 or fewer points. Buffalo is 2-4 at home, with wins by 1-3 points; they’re 9-4-1 in last 14 games as home favorite- LW was first time this season they were favored. In their last four games, Bills ran ball for 183 yards/game. Buffalo won four of last five series games; last three were all decided by 3 or fewer points. Detroit lost its last three visits here, by 9-7-2 points. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; six of last seven Detroit games stayed under. 

Packers (5-7-1) @ Bears (9-4)— Bears (+7.5) blew 17-0 halftime lead, lost 24-23 at Lambeau in season opener; Packers won 14 of last 16 series games, winning last eight visits to Soldier Field, with 6 of 8 wins by 7+ points, but Chicago is hot now, winning/covering six of last seven games. Bears are 6-1 SU/ATS at home this year, with only loss 38-31 to NE; they held Rams without TD LW. Chicago is +7 in turnovers in Trubisky’s last four starts. Bears are 9-0 this season when they allow less than 24 points. Green Bay lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-6 on road, 1-2-1 as road underdogs- since 2013, they’re 7-13-1 as AU. Over is 7-3 in Bears’ last ten games, 2-5 in Packers’ last seven, This is only 2nd time in last 20 series games that Bears are favored. 

Titans (7-6) @ Giants (5-8)— Resurgent Giants are 4-1 since their bye week (4-0-1 vs spread), scoring 30-40 points in last two games- their defense scored first TD in each of last two games. In last four games, Big Blue ran ball for average of 164.3 ypg, as rookie RB Barkley becomes focal point of offense. Giants are 5-8-1 in last 14 games as home favorite, 0-0-1 this year. Tennessee is 7-6 but has led only three games at halftime this year (3-8-2). Titans scored 26-30 points in winning last two games; they’re 2-4 in true road games, 2-2 as road underdogs- since ’14, Titans are 9-19 as road dogs. Titans won four of last five series games, but lost last meeting 36-7 in ’14. Last three Tennessee games, last five Giant games went over total. 

Redskins (6-7) @ Jaguars (4-9)— Washington doesn’t have a QB, which is huge problem; they got two TD drives out of 32-year old backup Johnson LW, his first NFL passes since 2011. Skins lost last four games, allowing 30.5 ppg; they allowed 17 or fewer points in all six wins this year, are 0-7 when allowing more, with six losses by 8+ points. Jaguars lost eight of last nine games, scoring one TD on 21 drives in last two games- they stayed under their team total in seven of those nine games. Jacksonville is 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorite- they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as HF. Washington won five of six series games, taking last three, two of them in OT. Three of last four Redskin games went over total; Jaguars’ last three home games stayed under. 

Cardinals (3-10) @ Falcons (4-9)— Atlanta lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread); they’re 4-2 when they score 23+ points, 0-7 when they score less, and they haven’t scored 23+ since Nov 4 in Washington. Falcons are -5 in turnovers their last three games, are 5 for last 21 on 3rd down,  and allowed a defensive TD in last two games. Arizona lost four of its last five games; they’re 2-4 on road with three losses by 10+ points. Redbirds are 5-10 in last 15 games as road underdogs, 3-3 this year- they lost 27-17 at Minnesota in only other game on artificial turf this year (3-7 vs spread in last 10). Home side won last nine series games; Cardinals lost their last eight trips to Atlanta- their last win here was in 1993. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under total.  

Seahawks (8-5) @ 49ers (3-10)— Short week for Seattle team that crushed 49ers 43-16 two weeks ago; Niners passed for 386 yards that day, but were -3 (0-3) in turnovers, giving up a defensive TD- SF scored only 7 points in four trips to red zone. Seahawks won last four visits to Santa Clara, with three of four wins by 11+ points. Seattle won its last four games, covered last three; they’re 3-3 SU on road, winning by 3-14-3 points- Seahawks are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. 49ers are 2-3 with Mullens at QB, losing by 4-18-27 points; they’re -9 in turnovers in last four games- their last takeaway was Oct 28 in Arizona. Four of last five Seahawk games went over total; under is 5-2 in last seven SF games. 

Patriots (9-4) @ Steelers (7-5-1)— Over last 11 years, New England is 26-11 vs spread in game following a loss, 2-1 this year; Patriots are 3-4 on road, all as a favorite, after being 11-4 last two years. NE stayed under its team total in five of its last six games. Pittsburgh lost its last three games, outscored 54-21 in second half of those games; they’ve run ball for only 51.5 ypg in last four games (only 63 runs compared to 188 passes). Steelers are 3-3 at home this year; since ’13, they’re 3-4-1 as home dogs. Patriots Patriots won last five series games, winning LY’s meeting 27-24; NE won three of last four visits here, with last loss in 2011. Five of last six Patriot games, three of last four Steeler games stayed under the total. 

Eagles (6-7) @ Rams (11-2)— Carson Wentz (back) is apparently out for this game; Nick Foles is his backup- he won the Super Bowl LY. Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 vs spread in game following a loss. Rams were held without a TD in Chicago LW, after scoring 38.8 ppg in previous four games; LA is 6-0 at home this year, 3-3 as HF- they’ve scored 25 TD’s on 50 drives at home this year. Last two years, Rams are 6-6 as home favorites. Eagles’ defense was on field for 93 plays in OT loss to Dallas LW; Philly is 1-4 in true road games, with only win at Giants; under Pederson, Iggles are 5-7 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Eagles are 3-6 outside NFC East; their opponent went over their team total in four of their last five games. Philly won last five series games, with last loss in ’04; Eagles won last three road series games. Over is 4-1 in Rams’ last five home games

Monday
Saints (11-2) @ Panthers (6-7)— Carolina lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) and has already fired two defensive assistants, and now the Saints come to town? Saints were 3-0 vs Carolina LY, winning 31-26 in home playoff game; NO lost four of its last six visits to Charlotte. Average total in last eight series games is 57.1. Panthers’ last four losses were all by 7 or fewer points; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss 30-27 to Seattle. they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Saints won 11 of last 12 games, covering 10 of last 11; they’re 6-1 SU on road, 3-1 as AF- since 2012, they’re 9-14-1 vs spread as road favorites. Last four Saints games, three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total. 


2018 week-by-week results
HF                      HU        Totals O/U   AFC-NFC
1) 5-6-1          2-2          8-8              2-2
2) 4-6              5-1          8-8               1-1
3) 7-5               3-1          8-8              5-3N
4) 5-5-1           2-2         6-4U           3-1A
5) 7-4               3-0          8-7O           2-0A
6) 3-4               4-4          9-6O          3-1N
7) 3-5-1           0-5          10-4U         4-2N
8) 3-5                2-4       8-5-1U         3-1N
9) 5-5                1-2           7-6U           3-2A
10) 3-6-1         2-2           8-6O           3-2A
11) 7-4              2-2          8-6-1O        1-0A
12) 7-4              2-3          8-5-1O        1-0A
13) 4-4-1          5-2           11-5U          2-0A
14) 4-5              4-3            8-8              1-1
T) 67-68-5     37-33     104-97U      25-24A

2017 week-by-week results
HF               HU           Totals O/U   AFC-NFC
1)  5-5           3-2         4-11             1-0N
2) 6-6           2-2         6-9-1          3-2A
3) 1-4            8-2         10-5            3-0N
4) 4-7           2-3          8-7-1          2-2
5) 4-7            1-1          6-8             3-0A
6) 3-8           3-0          8-6             3-1N
7) 5-0-2       3-4          7-8              1-1
8) 5-4           0-4          7-6             3-1N
9) 5-2-1       0-3-1      5-8             2-0N
10) 4-3          3-3-1      8-6             5-0N
11) 4-4            1-5          7-7              2-2
12) 7-2-1        1-5         8-8              2-2
13) 5-4            5-2         7-9              2-0A
14) 5-4            4-3         7-8              4-2N
15)  7-2           3-3-1      7-9             4-0N

T) 70-62-2   39-40-3   106-115-2   35-19N


Selections

Armadillo’s football tips
Seattle Seahawks, -3.5
————–
2018 bankroll: 8-4-1, plus 108 zorns
2017 bankroll:
 11-7, plus 99 avellinis
Big Dawg’s selections
Chargers, +3.5
Patriots, -2.5
Browns, +2.5
———–

2018 bankroll: 22-21, minus 33 rivers
2012-7 bankroll: 157-124-10, plus 621 pisarciks