NFL

football


2019 NFL
NFL Week 14
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bears (6-6)— Both teams played on Thanksgiving, had full week to prepare. Dallas lost three of last four games; they have no takeaways in last three (-4 TO’s)- they’re 3-3 SU on road TY, 15-7-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road favorite, 3-2 TY. In their last two games, Cowboys have two TD’s on 21 drives. Three of their last four road games went over. Chicago won its last two games after a 1-5 skid; they’re 3-3 SU at home TY, 9-2-2 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY). Five of their last six games stayed under. Dallas won last two series games, 41-28/31-17, with last meeting in ’16. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-13 ATS, 1-6 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-6 ATS, 2-1 at home. 

Ravens (10-2) @ Bills (9-3)— Baltimore won its last eight games, covering five of last six; in their last five games, they scored 22 TD’s on 40 drives. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball for 242 yards/game. Buffalo won three in row, six of last eight games; they’ve run ball for 178.7 ypg the last three weeks. Under McDermtt, Bills are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog, 1-0 TY- two of their three losses TY came at home. Four of their last five games stayed under. Home side won last seven Baltimore-Buffalo games; Ravens waxed Bills 47-3 in LY’s season opener- they lost last two trips to western NY, 23-20/19-14, with last visit here in 2013. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 ATS, 2-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 10-7-1 ATS,, 5-3 at home. 

Redskins (3-9) @ Packers (9-3)— Washington won its last two games after a 1-9 start; they ran ball for 248 yards LW in their upset win at Carolina. Redskins have 8 takeaways (+5) in their last three games, 13 sacks in last two; they’re 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Green Bay split its last four games; they’re 24-14-2 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite, 4-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Underdogs covered three of last four series games; Redskins lost last four visits to Lambeau, with 3 of 4 losses by 18+ points. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 ATS TY; NFC North home favorites are 6-7 ATS. 

Broncos (4-8) @ Texans (8-4)— Denver split its last eight games (4-4 ATS) after an 0-4 start; rookie QB Lock got a win in his first NFL start LW, now makes his first road start. Broncos are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY- three of their last four games went over the total. Houston won six of its last eight games; they converted 12 of last 23 third down plays. Texans are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road favorite, 1-4 TY. Houston allowed 30+ points in three of their four losses. Four of their last five games went under. Favorites covered five of last seven series games; Denver split its last two visits here, wth last one here in ’13. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 ATS, 5-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 9-6 ATS, 2-2 at home. 

49ers (10-2) @  Saints (10-2)— 49ers split their last four games after an 8-0 start, with both losses by a FG;.under Shanahan- they lost field position by 10+ yards in both losses, Niners are  out of first place in NFC West for first time TY; they’re 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 4-0 TY. SF is 4-0 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points. New Orleans won its last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg; they were held to 9 points in both their losses TY. Saints are 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY. Road team won three of last four series games; 49ers won two of last three visits to Bourbon Street. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-7 ATS, 3-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 12-1 ATS, 10-1 on road. 

Bengals (1-11) @ Browns (5-7)— Cincy got first win of the year LW with Dalton back under center; they covered last three games. In their last five games, Bengals were outscored 47-14 in 2nd half; they’re 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. This is armadillosports dot com. Cleveland won three of last four games; they’ve outscored opponents in 2nd half only once in their last eight games (1-5-2). Browns are 2-2-1 ATS TY as a home favorite. Three of their last four games went under. Browns swept Cincy LY, 35-20/26-18, after losing previous six series games. Bengals won four of last five trips to the Dawg Pound. Remember that Browns’ defensive star Garrett is suspended for rest of season.   

Panthers (5-7) @ Falcons (3-9)— Atlanta (+5.5) picked Allen off four times, stuffed the Panthers 29-3 in Charlotte three weeks ago; Falcons won eight of last ten series games. Carolina lost its last four visits to Atlanta, by 7-12-15-7 points. Carolina lost its last four games overall, giving up 29 ppg; they’ve allowed 12 TD’s on last 42 drives, have converted only 12 of last 43 third down plays. Panthers are 14-8 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY; they’re 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games on artificial turf, 1-0 TY. Six of their last eight games went over. Atlanta gave up 61 points in losing its last two games; they lost their last four home games, are 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY. Five of their last six games stayed under. 

Lions (3-8-1) @ Vikings (8-4)— Short week for Minnesota after its Monday night loss in Seattle. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 25-9-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Vikings (-2.5) won 42-30 in Detroit in Week 7, running ball for 166 yards in game that was 21-all at half. Detroit lost six of last nine series games, but won two of last three visits to the Twin Cities. Vikings split their last four games, despite scoring 27 ppg; they’ve converted 18 of last 26 third down plays. Six of their last seven games went over. This is first road start for rookie 3rd string QB Blough, who was 22-38/259 in LW’s 24-20 home loss to Chicago, his NFL debut. Under Patricia, Lions are 6-4 ATS as a road underdog, 2-2 TY; five of their last seven games went over.

Dolphins (3-9) @ Jets (4-8)— Miami won three of its last five games after an 0-7 start; they covered six of their last eight games, are 3-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Dolphins allowed 20+ points in first half in each of their last three games, but they play hard for 60:00 and Fitzpatrick has given them a competitive spark. Four of their last five games went over. Jets (-3) lost 26-18 in Miami in Week 9, scoring 10 points on three trips to red zone; Dolphins won six of last seven series games, taking two of last three series games played here. Jets won three of last four games but laid an egg in Cincy LW; they won three of last four home games, are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite, 0-1 TY. Jets didn’t allow a play of 20+ yards in their last two games. 

Colts (6-6) @ Buccaneers (5-7)— Colts lost four of last five games after a 5-2 start; they’re 2-3 SU on road TY, with all five games decided by 6 or fewer points. Under Reich, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite, 4-0 TY. Veteran K Vinatieri has missed 14 kicks (6 PAT, 8 FG) TY- they gave up a TD on a blocked FG when score was tied with 6:00 left in pivotal loss to Titans LW. Tampa Bay won three of last four games after a 2-6 start; Bucs lost three of their four home games, are 4-16 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY. Indy won three of last four series games; teams split last two meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 10-6 ATS, 8-4 on road; AFC South favorites are 4-7 ATS, 1-1 at home. 

Chargers (4-8) @ Jaguars (4-8)— Chargers find weird ways to lose; all eight of their losses are by 7 or fewer points- their last four road games (1-3) were decided by total of nine points. LA turned ball over eight times in their last three games (-6); they’re 1-6 when they allow more than 16 points. Chargers are 2-5 SU away from home, and were favored in 4 of 7 games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Jaguars lost last four games, allowing 32.3 ppg, with all four losses by 17+ points. Jags are 9- ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog, 1-2 TY. Bolts won six of last seven series games, losing 20-17 (+5.5) in last visit here, two years ago. AFC West non-divisional  favorites are 6-11 ATS, 2-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 10-6 ATS, 2-2 at home. 

Chiefs (8-4) @ Patriots (10-2)— Chiefs scored 71 points in two games vs New England LY but lost both of them, losing AFC title game 37-31 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs lost five of last seven visits to Foxboro; underdogs covered last four series games. Chiefs scored 30.5 ppg in winning three of last fur games overall; under Reid, they’re 14-8 ATS as a road underdog (0-0 TY). Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. New England split its last four games after an 8-2 start; they’re 31-15-3 in last 49 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 8-4 in their games this season. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-6 ATS, 5-4 on road; AFC East favorites are 8-7 ATS, 5-5 at home. Patriots are behind Baltimore now in race for #1 seed in the AFC. 

Steelers (7-5) @ Cardinals (3-8-1)— Steelers won six of last seven games after a 1-4 start; they are 2-0 in Hodges’ starts, +10 in turnovers- they outscored last six opponents 63-26 in 2nd half. Pitt is 2-3 SU on road, 3-9 ATS n last dozen games as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Arizona lost its last five games, but covered six of last eight; they’re 1-4-1 SU at home, with only win 34-33 over Atlanta in Week 6. Over last 11 years, Cardinals 22-15-1 ATS as a home underdog, 3-2 TY. Three of their last four games went over. Pitt won four of last five series games, splitting last two meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 ATS, 2-1 on road; NFC West underdogs are 12-1 ATS, 2-0 at home.

Titans (7-5) @ Raiders (6-6)— Tennessee won five of its last six games after a 2-4 start; they’re tied for last Wild Card slot. Titans are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 0-1 TY- they split six road games SU this year. Oakland was a playoff contender, then lost last two games, 34-3/40-9; they scored one TD on last 20 drives, with five turnovers (-4).  Raiders won four of their five home games, with only loss 28-10 (+7) to KC in Week 2- they’re 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY. Raiders won last three series games, by 3-7-10 points; this is Titans’ first visit to Oakland since ’13. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-7 ATS, 1-1 on road; AFC West underdogs are 8-5 ATS, 3-1 at home. 

Seahawks (10-2) @ Rams (7-5)— Zuerlein missed 41-yard FG with 0:02 left in Rams’ 30-29 loss in Seattle in Week 5, just third series win for Seahawks in last ten meetings, last four of which were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Seattle won its last five games, covered last four; they’re 6-0 SU on road TY, 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. Three of their last four games went over. Rams split their four post-bye games, scoring 17 or fewer points in three of them; they’re 2-3 SU at home TY, 1-6-1 ATS n last eight games as a home underdog, 0-1 TY. Six of their last seven games went under. Seahawks are 10-2, but six of their 10 wins were by 4 or less points, or in OT. Seattle is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games wth spread of 3 or less points. 

Giants (2-10) @ Eagles (5-7)— Eli Manning gets start here, with Jones (ankle) injured. Philly lost its last three games, blowing two-TD lead to 3-9 Miami LW; they led two of those three games at halftime. Eagles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY- they’re 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games as a divisional home favorite. Philly has six takeaways in its last seven games (-7); Three of their last four games went under. Giants lost their last eight games (2-6 ATS); they were outscored 122-53 in 2nd half of those games. NYG is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 3-3 TY. Big Blue is minus-13 in turnovers TY; Four of their last five games went over. Eagles won four in row, 10 of last 11 series games; Giants lost last five visits here, last two by 25-22/27-24 scores. 

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Selections

Armadillo’s football tips

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2019 bankroll: plus 25 altuves
Pending future bets:
– Miami Dolphins, under 4.5 wins (+$110)

Big Dawg’s selections

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2019 bankroll: 20-15, plus 105 favres
2012-18 bankroll: 184-148-10, plus 639 pisarciks