2023-24 college basketball
Tuesday’s play-in games (@ Dayton, OH)
Last seven years, favorites are 18-9-1 ATS in these play-in games; 8-6 in the 16-seed games, 10-3-1 in the 11-seed games.
Wagner vs Howard (-3.5)
Wagner (16-15)
KenPom rating: 293
Tempo: 361
Experience: 320
Continuity: 254
Wagner went 7-9 in NEC, 2nd-worst league in country.
Seahawks are in NCAAs for first time since 2003.
Wagner is shooting 42.8% inside arc (#358)
Seahawks are 13-10 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
Wagner is 4-6 in its D-I non-league games.
NEC teams are 5-5 in play-in games.
Howard (18-16)
KenPom rating: 276
Tempo: 163
Experience: 299
Continuity: 225
Howard won seven of its last eight games.
Bison is 4-10 in its D-I non-league games.
Howard is turning ball over 21.7% of time (#354)
Bison is shooting 37.5% on the arc (#19).
Howard is 15-10 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
MEAC teams are 4-4 in play-in games.
Colorado State (-1.5) vs Virginia
Colorado State (24-10)
KenPom rating: 38
Tempo: 270
Experience: 67
Continuity: 127
Colorado State won four of its last five games.
Rams are 10-1 in their D-I non-league games.
CSU is shooting 57.6% inside arc (#9).
Rams are 11-9 vs top 100 teams.
CSU is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in last 10 years.
Rams (+1.5) lost 75-63 to Michigan in ’22, as a #6-seed.
Virginia (26-7)
KenPom rating: 69
Tempo: 362
Experience: 102
Continuity: 223
Virginia is 4-5 in its last nine games.
Both their games in ACC Tournament went to overtime.
Cavaliers are shooting 46.8% inside arc (#310)
Virginia has #14 eFG% defense in country.
Cavaliers are 4-5 vs top 50 teams.
Virginia lost 3 of its last 4 first round games; the other year, they won the national championship.
ACC teams are 3-2 SU/ATS against Mountain West opponents this year.
Favorites covered all five games.
Wednesday’s play-in games
Grambling vs Montana State (-3.5) (@ Dayton, OH)
Grambling (20-14)
KenPom rating: 267
Tempo: 314
Experience: 210
Continuity: 188
Grambling won SWAC regular season, going 14-4.
Tigers are 0-10 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Grambling did play the #4 non-conference schedule.
Grambling is turning ball over 20.6% of time (#341)
Tigers are #334 team on defensive boards.
Grambling is 17-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
This is Grambling’s first-ever NCAA tourney game.
SWAC teams are 4-10 in play-in games.
Montana State (17-17)
KenPom rating: 213
Tempo: 96
Experience: 208
Continuity: 257
Montana State is in NCAA’s for 3rd year in a row.
TY, they went 9-9 in Big Sky; last two years, Bobcats were 31-7 in Big Sky.
Bobcats are 3-7 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Opponents are shooting 54.1% inside arc (#333)
Montana State has #45 eFG% in country.
Bobcats are 9-7 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
Colorado (-2.5) vs Boise State
Colorado (24-10)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 165
Experience: 178
Continuity: 61
Colorado won eight of its last nine games.
Buffs are 9-2 in non-conference games TY.
Colorado has #18 eFG% in the country.
Buffs are #15 team in country on defensive boards.
Colorado is 11-8 vs teams in top 100.
Colorado is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in four years.
Boise State (22-10)
KenPom rating: 39
Tempo: 221
Experience: 128
Continuity: 66
Boise State won six of its last eight games.
Broncos are 7-4 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Opponents are shooting 52.1% inside arc (#258)
Boise State is #5 team in country on defensive boards.
Boise State is 6-7 vs top 50 teams.
All-time, Boise State is 0-9 in NCAA Tournament games.
Mountain West teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 this season.
Only loss was Colorado’s 88-83 loss at Colorado State.
Thursday’s games
Michigan State (-1.5) vs Mississippi State (@ Charlotte)
Michigan State (19-14) ranked #18 by KenPom
Tempo: #305
Experience: #61
Continuity: #14
MSU lost five of its last seven games.
Spartans are 8-3 in non-conference games.
Spartans have #58 eFG% defense in country.
MSU is 4-10 against top 50 teams.
MSU is 2-10 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Michigan State’s schedule, to this point: #12
bench minutes: #165
Michigan State won five of last six first round games.
Mississippi State (21-13) ranked #30 by KenPom
Tempo: #202
Experience: #54
Continuity: #28
Miss State lost five of its last seven games.
Bulldogs are turning ball over 18.7% of time (#290)
Bulldogs are #21 team in country on the offensive boards.
Miss State is 4-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Miss State is 11-2 in non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-10 vs top 50 teams.
Miss State’s schedule, to this point: #22
bench minutes: #114
Coach Jans is in NCAA’s for 5th time in last six years.
This year, SEC teams are 9-4 SU/ATS vs Big 14 opponents.
Favorites were 11-2 ATS in those games.
Duquesne vs BYU (-9.5) (@ Omaha)
Duquesne (24-11) ranked #86 by KenPom
Tempo: #291
Experience: #47
Continuity: #94
Duquesne won its last eight games.
Dukes are 8-3 in D-I non-conference games.
Dukes have #60 eFG% defense in country.
Duquesne is 1-3 against top 50 teams.
Duquesne is 8-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Duquesne’s schedule, to this point: #97
bench minutes: #83
Duquesne is in NCAA’s for first time since 1977.
Last four years, A-15 teams are 1-4 SU/ATS in NCAA’s.
Coach Dambrot is retiring after this season.
BYU (23-10) ranked #16 by KenPom
Tempo: #85
Experience: #132
Continuity: #29
BYU is 5-4 in its last nine games.
Cougars are 12-1 in non-conference games.
BYU is shooting 58% inside the arc (#8)
Cougars are #24 team on defensive boards.
BYU is 5-4 in games decided by 8 or less points.
Cougars are 11-9 vs top 100 teams.
BYU’s schedule, to this point: #52
bench minutes: #117
BYU is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in eight years; their last NCAA win, 2011.
This year, A-15 teams are 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS vs Big X opponents.
Last eight years, underdogs are 18-14 ATS in #6-11 seed games.
Akron vs Creighton (-12.5) (@ Pittsburgh)
Akron (24-10) ranked #116 by KenPom
Tempo: #268
Experience: #22
Continuity: #70
Akron won MAC tourney (3-5 in last 8 regular season games)
Zips are 6-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Akron is shooting 54.8% inside arc (#31)
Zips are 1-4 against top 100 teams.
Akron is 10-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Akron’s schedule, to this point: #219
bench minutes: #167
Akron is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in three years.
Over last 25 years, Zips are 0-4 in NCAA games.
Last seven years, MAC teams are 3-4 SU/6-1 ATS in first round games.
Creighton (23-9) ranked #11 by KenPom
Tempo: #207
Experience: #8
Continuity: #40
Creighton won seven of its last nine games.
Bluejays are 9-2 in non-conference games.
Creighton has #3 eFG% in the country.
Bluejays beat MAC’s Central Michigan 109-64 in December.
Creighton forces fewest turnovers in the country.
Duquesne’s schedule, to this point: #23
bench minutes: #355
Under McDermott, Creighton is 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS in first round games..
Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.
This year, Big East teams are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
Long Beach State vs Arizona (-19.5) (@ Salt Lake City)
Long Beach State (21-14) ranked #163 by KenPom
Tempo: #29
Experience: #68
Continuity: #7
Long Beach fired its coach March 11, after an 0-5 skid.
Long Beach then won Big West tourney, with same coach.
Long Beach is 6-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Long Beach is 2-3 against top 100 teams.
Long Beach won in OT USC of Pac-12 December 10.
Long Beach’s schedule, to this point: #182
bench minutes: #279
Long Beach is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012.
Last 8 years, Big West teams are 2-6 SU/5-3 ATS in first round games.
Arizona (25-8) ranked #6 by KenPom
Tempo: #16
Experience: #84
Continuity: #211
Arizona lost 2 of its last 3 games, after a 10-1 run.
Wildcats are 9-2 in non-league games.
Arizona has #26 eFG% in country.
Wildcats are a top 5 rebounding team in country.
Arizona is 9-2 against teams outside the top 100.
Arizona’s schedule, to this point: #26
bench minutes: #280
LY, Arizona got upset in first round, also as a #2-seed.
Last 7 first round games, Wildcats are 4-3 SU/0-6-1 ATS
TY, Pac-12 teams are 8-7 ATS vs Big West opponents.
Last seven years, #2-seeds are 15-12-1 ATS in first round.
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