2019-20 college basketball
Thursday’s college basketball
Big East tourney, Madison Square Garden
Creighton’s reward for winning #1-seed in this tournament is getting a true road game right off the bat; Bluejays won 11 of their last 13 games overall- they split pair of games with St John’s TY, losing 91-71 in Lapchick Gym 11 days ago. Creighton is 7-3 in last ten series games. Red Storm is 7-11 in this event since ’04, going WL the last three years- they finished last nite’s game on 23-0 run to beat Georgetown, after trailing by 10 with 7:32 left. St John’s went 5-13 in Big East after a 11-2 pre-conference slate; they scored 91-88-75 points, winning last three home tilts. Creighton PG Zegarowski (knee) is out.
Providence won its last six games to finish 12-6 in Big East, after an underwhelming 7-6 mark in pre-conference games; Friars are experience team #30 that forces turnovers 21.4% of time (#44)- they won last two road games. Butler won its last three games to finish 10-8 in Big East; they play very slow (#341) tempo. Butler/Providence split couple road wins this year; Friars are 12-4 vs Bulldogs in Big East play, winning by 14-23 points in two tourney matchups. Butler is 1-6 in this event the last six years; PC won its first tourney game five of last six years.
Seton Hall beat Marquette twice TY, by 14-8 points; Pirates made 13-26 on arc in last meeting. Hall won last four series games- they won last two Big East tourney meetings, by 6-5 points. Seton Hall went 3-4 in its last seven games, giving up 77.7 ppg in last three games; they’re #63 experience team. Marquette lost six of its last seven games, after a 7-4 start in Big East; Golden Eagles lost their last two games by total of 3 points. Marquette won its first tourney game four of last five years, going WL those five years; Pirates won first tourney game eight of last 11 years.
Big 14 tourney, Indianapolis
Michigan beat Rutgers twice TY, by 6-8 points; one game was at Rutgers, the other in NYC; Wolverines are 8-0 in series meetings. Michigan lost three of its last four games overall, was 10-10 in Big 14, winning three of last five road games. Wolverines are shooting 54.1% inside arc (#24). Rutgers is 2-10 away from home TY, winning at Nebraska/Purdue; Knights went 11-9 in big 14, their first winning conference season since at least 1997. Michigan is 12-2 in this event the last four years, winning it in ’18, ’19, but Beilein was coach then; Rutgers is 3-5 in this event.
Indiana ended first half on 16-1 run last nite, waxed Nebraska by 25; Hoosiers played only one guy more than 28:00. Indiana split its last ten games, is squarely on bubble. Penn State lost five of its last six games after starting 10-4 in league; Nittany Lions lost their last game by 11 at Northwestern, which is a red flag. Penn State/Indiana split two home wins TY; Hoosiers won 12 of last 15 series games, with four of their last five series win by 4 or fewer points, or in OT. Hoosiers are 4-13 in last 13 Big 14 tourneys; PSU is 5-8 the last eight years.
ACC tournament, Greensboro
Florida State won six of its last seven games; loss was 70-69 at Clemson 12 days ago, when FSU blew 10-point 2nd half lead. Seminoles won seven of last nine series games- they won last three ACC tourney meetings. Clemson played three starters 32:00+ in their 69-64 win over Miami yesterday; they scored 62 or fewer points in their last eight losses. Tigers get 36.5% of their points on arc (#47), but are making only 31.5% of their 3’s (#267). Tigers are young (experience team #240). FSU won first ACC tourney game seven of last eight years.
Since 2009, Duke is 22-6 in ACC tourney, winning it two of last three years; TY, Blue Devils split pair of home wins with NC State, losing 88-66 in Raleigh, then beating Wolfpack 88-69 ten days ago. Teams split last six series games overall. State won three of last four games; they’re #62 experience team that shoots 52.6% inside arc (#54) but only 31.9% on arc (#244). Wolfpack is 4-5 in last five ACC tourneys. Duke split its last six games, losing last three games away from home; Blue Devils are 15-5 in ACC, 2-4 in games decided by fewer than eight points.
Syracuse was +10 (18-8) in turnovers in its 81-53 rout of North Carolina last nite; Orange won four of last six games overall- they’re played four starters 35:00+ last nite, but it was a stress-free win. SU lost six of last nine series games; Louisville never trailed in its 90-66 home win over Syracuse Feb 19. Cardinals went 3-4 in their last seven games after starting season 21-3; they scored 67 or fewer points in last four losses. Having last nite off has to be an edge. Louisville won three straight conference tourneys from 2012-14, is only 1-4 in tourneys since then.
Big X tournament, Kansas City
Texas Tech scored only 59.8 ppg in losing its last four games; they finished 9-9 in Big X, will rest a lot easier with win here. Red Raiders are experience team #299 that forces turnovers 23% of time (#17). Texas won five of its last six games, but lost last game by 22 at home to Oklahoma State. Tech/Texas split pair of low scoring games TY, with road team winning both; Tech won five of last six series games- teams split last two meetings in Big X tourney. Tech is just 1-6 in this event the last six years; Longhorns are 6-8 the last eight years, going WL six times.
Oklahoma swept West Virginia TY, by 10-11 points, holding them to 60.5 ppg; Sooners had lost five of six games to WVU the previous two years, losing 72-71 in LY’s Big X tourney. Oklahoma won three of last four games to finish 9-9 in Big X; teams shoot only 44.2% inside arc against them (#16). Mountaineers won their last two games after a 1-6 skid, also finished 9-9 in Big X, losing six of last seven road games. WVU went WWL in each of last four Big X tourneys; Sooners are 0-3 in this event the last three years, losing by 11-11-19 points.
SEC tournament, Nashville
Alabama went 4-8 in its last dozen games, after starting season 12-7; losing their last two games to Vandy/Mizzou is a bright red flag. Crimson Tide lost 69-68 at home to Tennessee Feb 4, game they led by 15 in first half. Vols outscored Bama 23-5 on foul line in road game. Teams split last ten series games. Tennessee went 9-9 in SEC, after their PG went out for year and they brought in a new kid from Uruguay; Vols have #30 eFG% defense in country. Bama won its first tourney game the last four years; Tennessee won its first tourney game 10 of last 12 years.
Pac-12 tourney, Las Vegas (T-Mobile Arena)
Oregon won its last four games, went 13-5 in Pac-12, with last three wins by 13+ points. Ducks are shooting 39.6% on arc (#2 in country). Oregon State was down 14 in second half to Utah yesterday, rallied to win by hoop, playing four starters 35:00+. OSU is experience team #75, which helps. Oregon/OSU split pair of home wins TY; Beavers won four of last six series games, lost by 14 in only tourney meeting since ’04. Ducks won Pac-12 tourney LY, are 16-5 in last seven tourneys, winning it twice; State is 3-7 in last eight Pac-12 tourneys.
Arizona played its three freshmen starters 34:00+ in last nite’s 77-70 win over Washington; UA lost four of last six games overall, is experience team #306 that has #17 eFG% defense. USC won its last three games to finish 11-7 in Pac-12; Trojans have #9 eFG% defense. Teams split pair of home wins TY; Trojans won three of last four series games, after losing 11 of previous 13 meetings. Wildcats are 18-6 in last ten Pac-12 tourneys, winning three of them; Trojans are 6-5 in last five Pac-12 tourneys, going WL four times.
2020 bankroll: 0
Pending future bets: