Hoops


2019-20 college basketball
Thursday’s college basketball
Mississippi State won six of its first seven games vs schedule #255, despite turning ball over 24.3% of time (#333); Bulldogs are experience team #290 that is playing tempo #304- they’re shooting 56.6% inside the arc (#15). State lost its only top 100 game by 7 to Villanova- their best win is over #155 FIU. Louisiana Tech is 4-2 vs schedule #269, losing both their top 100 games, by 10 at Creighton, 13 at Indiana. Bulldogs are experience team #46 that is forcing turnovers 23.1% of the time (#44) while playing pace #57. 

Oklahoma beat North Texas the last two years by 10-16 points; they’re 6-1 TY vs schedule #116, with only loss by 19 to Stanford on a neutral floor. Sooners are experience team #248 that plays a quick pace (#51)- they’re 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, winning by 18-5-27 points. North Texas is 2-5 vs schedule #33, losing all four of its top 100 games, by 3-23-13-9 points. Mean Green turns ball over 24.3% of time (#32) while playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country. UNT is experience team #61 that won its last game by 11 at #137 Tex-Arlington Monday. 

Auburn is 7-0 vs schedule #101, beating Davidson, Richmond, New Mexico, all on neutral floors. Tigers haven’t played in nine days; they’re experience team #70 that starts four seniors- they’ve got shooting 58.7% inside arc (#7), are grabbing 35.5% of their own missed shots (#30).  Furman is 5-2 vs schedule #153; they’re forcing turnovers 25.7% of time (#14)- they’re shooting only 33.3% on arc, getting 39% of their points on 3’s (#36). Paladins’ losses were at Alabama by 8, 10 at South Florida- best team they’ve beaten is #111 Loyola-Chicago. 

Saint Mary’s is 7-1 vs schedule #289, losing at home to #165 Winthrop- they’ve got wins over Utah State/Wisconsin, both top 60 wins. Gaels are experience team #98 that has made 43.4% of its 3’s (#4), getting 35.9% of their points (#74) on arc while playing pace #338. Northern Illinois won its last five games, after losing to Northern Iowa/Iowa State to begin the year, their only top 100 games so far. Huskies have played schedule #319- they’re experience team #108 that subs a lot (#63 bench minutes). Only top 200 team NIU has beaten is #170 Oakland. 

Montana State is 3-3 vs schedule #129, wth an erratic resume; they won at NC-Greensboro, lost by 26 at home to Green Bay. Bobcats have turned ball over 23.7% of time (#326) while playing pace #256- they’re #48 experience team that doesn’t sub a lot (bench minutes #310). South Dakota State is 5-4 vs schedule #158, losing their last two road games, three of them to top 70 teams. Jackrabbits are turning ball over 21.4% of time (#256); they’re experience team #316 whose only road win was by hoop in double OT at Cal-Bakersfield.

Wednesday’s college basketball
Penn was 25-37 on foul line (Wildcats were 18-27) in its 78-75 win over Villanova LY, ending their 15-game losing skid in this inner-city rivalry. Villanova is 5-2 vs schedule #96; they’ve made 40.2% of their 3’s (#18), are scoring 41.2% of their points on arc (#31). Wildcats are experience team #332 that starts two sophs, a frosh and doesn’t play any seniors. Penn won two of three games in Anaheim over weekend, losing to Arizona by 10; Quakers are 5-3 vs schedule #48, wth losses by 19-11-10 points- they’ve got two top 100 wins, over Alabama/Providence. 

Maryland is 8-0 vs schedule #173, after winning tourney in Orlando over weekend, with all three wins there over top 100 teams. Terps are experience team #301 that is forcing turnovers 21.5% of time (#101) while playing pace #52. Maryland opens Big 14 conference when they host Illinois Saturday. Notre Dame won its last six games since an opening loss to UNC, but only one of those wins (Toledo) was a top 100 win (schedule #339); Irish is experience team #52 that forces turnovers 21.3% of time- they have #32 eFG% in country. 

UConn is 5-2 vs schedule #149; Huskies are forcing turnovers 22.8% of time (#52)- their eFG% defense is #40. UConn is 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, losing to St Joe’s, winning other three games, by  22-11-24 points. Huskies are experience team #240 that starts three juniors, one senior. Iona First game in 11 days for Iona squad that split first four games (vs schedule #338). Gaels are experience team #4 that starts three juniors, two seniors- they lost both there games vs teams ranked in top 200, by 6 to LaSalle, 9 to Ohio U. 

Virginia’s 2nd-leading scorer Key is out for a while (wrist); Cavaliers are 7-0 vs schedule #220 while playing slowest tempo in country- thy’ve got three top 100 wins, but no top 50 wins. UVa forces turnovers 24.2% of time (#25); their eFG% defense is #1 in county, but they’ve made only 25% of there 3’s (#338)- their eFG% is #290. Purdue is 4-3 vs schedule #95, losing three of four top 100 games, with only win by 3 over VCU on a neutral floor. Boilers are experience team #207 that also plays slow tempo (#3480- they’re forcing turnovers 21.6% of time (#89). 

Georgia Tech is 3-2 vs schedule #80, losing two of three top 100 games, with best win in OT at NC Sate in season opener- two of their three top 100 games went to OT. Yellow Jackets are turning ball over 22.8% of time (#308); their eFG% defense is #4 in country. Nebraska won four of last five games after an 0-2 start (schedule #306); their best win was 74-67 over #129 South Florida on a neutral floor. Cornhuskers might be the worst rebounding team in country; they protect ball well (#15), are shooting only 57.6% on foul line (#344). 

Penn State is 6-1 vs schedule #215- they blew a 21-point 2nd half lead in their only loss, to Ole Miss. Nittany Lions have three top 100 wins, are forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#72)while playing pace #53- they’re experience team #53 that starts Big 14 play at Ohio State Saturday. Wake Forest lost title game of Anaheim tourney by 7 to Arizona; Deacons are 5-3 vs schedule #141- they beat Davidson by 12 in their other top 100 game. Wake is experience team #123 that gets 24.2% of their 3’s on foul line (#22). 

Utah won three of last four games with BYU, winning last two meetings played here, by 17-8 points. Utes split their last four games overall after a 3-0 start; they’re experience team #352 that starts three sophs, two frosh. Utah is making 37.4% of their 3’s; their eFG% is #6 in country- they beat Minnesota by 4 in their only top 100 game. BYU is 5-3 vs schedule #24- they’re making 38.4% of their 3’s (#39) while getting 39.9% of their points on arc (#26). Cougars split two true road games, winning by point in Houston, losing by 4 in OT at Boise. 

DePaul is one of most improved teams in country, stating out 8-0 vs schedule #234; Blue Demons have top 100 wins over Iowa/Minnesota; they’re experience team #208 that is thin (bench plays #332 minutes), but is shooting 38% on arc (#47)- their eFG% is #41 in country. Texas Tech lost couple games in Las Vegas (Iowa by 11/Creighton by 7 in OT) LW after a 5-0 start; Red Raiders are don’t have a top 200 win yet. Tech is experience team #317 that subs a lot (bench minutes #85)- this is their first true road game. 

New Mexico won five of last seven games with Boise State; underdogs are 7-4 ATS in last 11 series games. Broncos lost three of last four visits to Albuquerque, losing by 2-5-8 points. Last four series games played here were decided by total of 16 points. Boise won its last three games after opening losses to Oregon/Cal-Irvine; two of Broncos’ three win came in OT. Boise is #10 experience team that is shooting only 26.9% on arc (#321). New Mexico is 6-2 vs schedule #135, with top 100 wins over Wisconsin/New Mexico State- their losses are to UTEP/Auburn.

San Diego State won its last three games with Colorado State, by 9-19-11 points; Aztecs won last three of last four visits to Fort Collins. Aztecs are 8-0 vs schedule #184; they beat Creighton, Iowa over the weekend in Las Vegas- they also have a win at BYU. San Diego State is forcing turnovers 23% of time; their eFG% defense is #19. Colorado State won its last three games after a 3-3 start; Rams are 0-2 in top 100 games, losing by 34 at Duke, in OT at New Mexico State. CSU is experience team #263 that is shooting 37.9% on the arc (#51).

Air Force is 9-5 in its last 14 games with Wyoming, but they lost three of last four visits to Laramie; home side won six of last eight series games. Air Force lost four of last five games, but they’re 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with lone loss by 10 to Idaho State. Falcons are #5 experience team that won at Army, lost by 11 at TCU in their two true road games. Wyoming lost five of last seven games, scoring 41-47 points in their last two games; Cowboys haven’t played in 8 days- they’re turning ball over 21.9% of time (#291) while playing pace #333. 

NC State is 5-2 vs schedule #323, losing both their top 100 games, at home in OT to Georgia Tech, by 5 to Memphis in Brooklyn. Wolfpack is experience team #59 that forces turnovers 23.2% of time (#44)- they don’t any wins over a top 150 team. State opens ACC play vs Wake Forest Saturday. Wisconsin lost twice in Brooklyn LW, going 9-53 on arc; they’re 4-0 at home, 0-3 one neutral floors- they did beat Marquette by 16 at home, their only win in four top 100 games, with losses by 2-10-9 points. 

Fresno State won its last seven games with UNLV, winning last three played here, by 7-13-6 points; Bulldogs lost four of first five D-I games, losing by point at Northridge, in OT at San Diego; they’re shooting 31.1% on line (#231) while taking 53% of their shots behind arc- they get 41.8% of their points on arc. UNLV already has three OT losses in its 3-6 start; they’re 0-3 in true road games with two OT losses, at California/Cincy. Rebels are turning ball over 23.4% of time (#321); their bench is playing #330 minutes, which has hurt them in the OT games. 

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Today’s Tips

2019 bankroll: plus 25 altuves
Pending future bets:
– Miami Dolphins, under 4.5 wins (+$110)

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