Month: July 2023

Akron
— Last five years, Akron is 9-45 SU/20-34 ATS.
— Zips were 2-10 LY, but covered five of last six games. 
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 64 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB; started 10 games LY, threw for 2,609 yards.
— Akron was 7-4 ATS as an underdog last year.
— last four years, Zips are 2-10 ATS outside the MAC.
— Zips are 1-2 in bowls in school history; last one was in 2017.

Ball State
— Ball State has one winning season (2020) the last nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 67 starts back on OL, three starters are back.
— senior QB started 12 games at Texas State, also played 3 years at Arkansas State.
— under Neu, Ball State is 10-18 ATS as a favorite.
— under Neu, Ball State is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog, 18-14 as a road dog.
— last four years, Cardinals are 17-14 ATS in MAC games. 
— Ball State is 1-8 all-time in bowls, 1-4 SU/ATS in last five.

Bowling Green
— Falcons went bowling LY, but have had 7 straight losing seasons.  
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.  
— under Loeffler, BG is 7-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. 
— last three years, Falcons are 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2016, Falcons are 5-14-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)

Buffalo
— Bulls were 11-14 last two years; they were 24-10 from 2018-20. 
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY, threw for school record 3,030 yards.
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.  
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 3-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— since 2013, Buffalo is 11-19-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Buffalo won its last three bowls, after losing its first three.

Central Michigan
— Chippewas were minus-18 in turnovers in LY’s 4-8 season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— unclear who QB will be: Bauer is more of a passer, Emanuel a runner. 
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-4 ATS as an underdog.
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2017, Central Michigan is 19-13 ATS coming off a win. 
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/ATS in last five bowls; they were underdog in all five.

Eastern Michigan
— Eagles were 7-6/9-4 last two years, after going 32-61 from 2013-20.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith was 3-1 as starter LY, before he got hurt. 
— under Creighton, EMU is 7-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Creighton, EMU is 29-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Eagles are 13-9 ATS in MAC games.
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.

Kent State
— Kent went 22-21 last 4 years; their coach bolted to be an assistant at Colorado.
— no starters back on offense, 4 on defense- maybe that is why the coach left.
— only 5 starts back on offensive line
— QB room added transfers from K-State/Purdue.
— new coach was RB’s coach at Minnesota the last six years. 
— last 10 years, Flashes are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. 
— last nine years, Flashes are 19-26 ATS as a road underdog.
— Kent State is 1-3 in bowl games, with lone win in 2019. 

Miami OH
— Miami had +11 turnover ratio LY, was still only 6-7.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 48 starts back on offensive line; 2 starters bolted to big $$$ teams.
— senior QB has 25 career starts.
— In nine years under Martin, Miami is 17-22 ATS as a favorite.
— Last six years, Miami is 17-23 ATS outside the MAC.
— Last three years, Red Hawks are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Miami is 2-3 AU/5-0 ATS in its last five bowls.

Northern Illinois
— In four years under Hammock, NIU is 17-27 SU/22-22 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line- they’re supposed to be good.
— QB’s all got hurt LY; all three of them are back. Lombardi has 16 starts.   — under Hammock, NIU is 12-4 ATS as a road dog, 10-18 in all other games.
— Huskies are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Last three years, NIU is 2-12 ATS in home games.
— NIU lost its last seven bowls, giving up 45.4 ppg in last five. 
— Huskies’ last bowl win? 38-20 over Arkansas State in 2011.

Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2019, Ohio U is 7-12 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.

Toledo
— Last three years, Toledo is 20-13 SU/15-18 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— last four years, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as home favorites.
— under Candle, Toledo is 4-10 ATS as road underdogs.
— since 2018, Rockets are 11-20 ATS coming off a win. 
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.

Western Michigan
— WMU was 5-7 last year, their first losing season since 2013.
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 22 games at Old Dominion; LY’s QB’s also return.
— new HC Taylor was OC at Louisville last year.
— since 2017, Broncos are 5-8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, Broncos are 18-26-2 ATS in MAC games.
— WMU is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls, after losing first six bowls.

Boston College
— BC was 3-9 last year, their worst season since 2015.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line- expected to be much better.
— soph QB started 4 games LY: other QB transferred to Pitt.
— under Hafley, Eagles are 4-7 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2017, BC is 14-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— BC had 2 of last three bowls cancelled (2018/2021)
— Eagles lost last two bowls 27-20/38-6; their last bowl win was 2016. 

Clemson
— Last 10 years, Clemson is 121-18 SU.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— since 2020, Tigers are 8-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— last five years, Clemson is 30-12-1 ATS in ACC games.
— last two years, Clemson is 2-8 ATS out of conference
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.

Duke
— Duke was 9-4 LY, after going 10-24 from 2019-21.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— last two years, Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS as home favorites. 
— last three years, Duke is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog. 
— weird stat; last 10 years, Duke is 33-10 ATS outside the ACC.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014. 

Florida State
— FSU went 10-3 last year; from 2018-21, Seminoles were 19-27.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; an extremely experienced OL.
— senior QB has 26 career starts.
— since 2014, FSU is 20-28 ATS as a home favorite.  
— in his career, Norvell is 13-6 ATS as aa road favorite.
— Florida State won three of its last four bowls SU.  

Georgia Tech
— Tech has had 4 straight losing seasons (14-32 SU/17-28-1 ATS)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; 4 starters are back
— Tech’s head coach Key was on OL coach at Alabama.
— soph QB started 7 games in 3 years at Texas A&M.
— since 2018, Tech is 3-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
— since 2015, GT is 2-10 ATS as a road favorite.  
— since 2018, Tech is 4-14 ATS outside the ACC. 
— Tech is 3-2 in last five bowls; their last bowl was in 2018. 

Louisville
— New coach Brohm played QB at Louisville from 1989-93.
— Brohm is 66-44 SU as a HC, at Western Kentucky/Purdue
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB Plummer threw for 3,095 yards at Cal LY.  
— in his coaching career, Brohm is 25-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2019, Cardinals are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Louisville is 15-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Louisville is 2-3 in its last five bowls.

Miami
— Miami was 5-7 LY, their first losing season since 2014.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line; should be much better TY.
— junior QB has 18 career starts.
— since 2017, Miami is 13-21 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Cristobal is 14-26-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Miami is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami lost its last six bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.

North Carolina
— UNC is 30-22 last 4 years under Mack Brown (5-18 the 2 years before that)
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Maye started 14 games LY, is a Heisman contender.
— last three years, Tar Heels are 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, UNC is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— last two years, Carolina is 7-10 ATS in ACC games.
— UNC lost its last three bowls, giving up 35.7 ppg.

NC State
— Last three years, Wolfpack was 25-12 SU/19-18 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia; he’s good.
— under Doeren, State is 9-17-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Wolfpack is 7-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— last five years, NC State is 18-23-1 ATS in ACC games.
— NC State lost its last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2017.

Pittsburgh
— Last two years, Panthers were 20-7 SU/16-11 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— Pitt hosts Boston College on November 16.
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls. 

Syracuse
— Syracuse was 7-6 LY, their 2nd winning season since 2014.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— since 2018, Syracuse is 9-5 ATS as home favorites.
— last 10 years, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— last two years, Orange are 9-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).

Virginia
— Virginia was 3-7 LY, after being 28-21 the previous four years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— only 17 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB is a I-AA transfer; 3-year starter Armstrong bolted to NC State.
— NC State visits Charlottesville September 22.
— last 3 years, Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS coming off a win.
— since 2020, Virginia is 15-9 ATS in ACC games.
— Virginia lost three of last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2018.

Virginia Tech
— Tech has had 3 straight losing years; 14-21 SU/13-22 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— junior QB Wells started 11 games LY; Baylor transfer Drones is more of a runner.  
— since 2019, Hokies are 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Tech is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 3 years, Tech is 1-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016. 

Wake Forest
— 4-year starting QB Hartman bolted to Notre Dame (45 starts).
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has big shoes to fill.
— since 2017, Deacons are 17-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Wake is 7-4 ATS as an underdog
— In his career, Clawson is 31-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wake won bowl games the last two years, 38-10/27-17.

— Arizona
Last 10 years, Cardinals are 9-20-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
Last 10 years, Cardinals are 19-10-1 ATS in NFC West road games.

— Atlanta
Under Smith, Falcons are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
Under Smith, Falcons are 11-7 ATS on road. 

— Baltimore
John Harbaugh’s first five years: 54-26 in regular season, 9-4 in playoffs
John Harbaugh’s last ten years: 92-70 in regular season, 2-5 in playoffs

— Buffalo
Last four years, Bills are 8-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under McDermott, under is 28-19-2 Buffalo road games.

— Carolina
Last five years, Panthers have had five different #1 QB’s; this year will be #6.
Last seven years, Carolina is 46-68 SU, 0-1 in playoff games.

— Chicago
Last four years, Bears are 13-18-1 ATS at home.
Last two years, Bears are 5-11-1 ATS on the road.

— Cincinnati
Last three years, Bengals are 16-7 ATS as a favorite.
Last four years, Bengals are 8-4 ATS in NFC North home games.

— Movie of the Day: Before We Go (1988)— Two strangers stuck in Manhattan for the night become each other’s most trusted confidants when an evening of unexpected adventure forces them to confront their fears and take control of their lives.

Never heard of anyone in this movie; the guy who stars in it (Chris Evans) was also the director.

Pretty good movie that I stumbled upon on Amazon Prime late one night.

— College Football Trend of the Day: In two years under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 11-4 ATS as a favorite.

— Cleveland
Under Stefanski, Browns are 10-16-4 ATS as a favorite.
Last 10 years, Cleveland is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.

— Dallas
Last three years, Cowboys are 18-10 ATS at home.
Last six years, Dallas is 14-4 ATS in NFC East home games.

— Denver
Last six years, Broncos are 7-18-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Last five years, under is 26-15 in Denver home games.

— Detroit
Lions were 9-8 last year; from 2018-21, they were 17-46-2.
From 2014-17, Lions went 36-28 under Jim Caldwell, but they fired him; why?

— Green Bay
Last four years, Packers are 13-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five years, Green Bay is 12-8-1 ATS if spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Houston
This year, Texans will have 7th #1 QB in 11 years; they’ve had four head coaches the last four year.
Last two years, Houston was 7-26-1 SU, despite a +2 turnover ratio. 

— Baltimore
Last eight years, they’re 1-5 in playoff games.
Last five years, they’re 13-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Ravens are 11-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2015, Baltimore is 18-9-2 ATS as a road dog.

— Buffalo
Last four years, they’re 4-4 in playoff games (from 2003-19, they were 0-2)
Under McDermott, they’re 29-18-2 ATS on the road.
Last four years, they’re 14-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last four years, Bills are 12-6 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Cincinnati
Last two years, Bengals are 22-11 in regular season, 5-2 in playoff games.
From 2016-20, Bengals were 25-53-2 in regular season.
Under Taylor, Cincinnati is 16-9 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Bengals are 14-6 ATS coming off a loss.

— Cleveland
Over last 20 years, Browns are 1-1 in playoff games (2020)
Their only two winning seasons: 2007, 2020.
Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Browns are 10-16-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Denver
Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl in 2015.
Sean Payton is their 5th head coach in last eight years.
Since 2015, Denver is 11-21-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2017, Broncos are 6-18-3 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less points.

— Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is their fourth head coach the last four years (11-38-1 last 3 years)
Last five years, Texans are 10-6-2 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.
Last ten years, Houston is 14-21-3 ATS against NFC opponents
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston’s road games.

— Indianapolis Colts
Colts made the playoffs twice in last eight seasons.
Indy was minus-13 in turnovers last year (+14/+10 previous two years)
Last eight years, Colts are 20-9-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Last three years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.

— Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars were 9-8 last year; they were 15-50 from 2018-21.
Underdogs covered all eight Jacksonville home games last year.
Since 2014, Jaguars are 21-31-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Jaguars’ last sixteen home games.

— Movie of the Day— American Underdog (2021)— The remarkable story of NFL MVP and Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, who in five years went from stocking shelves at a supermarket in Iowa to becoming one of the best quarterbacks ever.

Zachary Levi plays Warner, Anna Paquin plays Brenda Warner, Dennis Quaid is coach Dick Vermeil. Bruce McGill plays Iowa Barnstormers’ coach Jim Foster. 

If you didn’t know this was a true story, you’d dismiss this movie as being too corny, but real life is generally better than fiction.

— Kansas City Chiefs
Last four years, Chiefs are 10-2 in playoffs, winning two Super Bowls.
Last eight years, Kansas City is 17-7 ATS in AFC West road games.
Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 10 years, Chiefs are 24-12-1 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.

Las Vegas Raiders
Last 20 years, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games (2016, 2021)
Last three years, Raiders are minus-7/minus-9/minus-11 in turnovers.
Last seven years, Las Vegas is 5-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers made playoffs three times in the last 13 years.
Since 2014, Chargers are 18-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Bolts are 30-17-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 4 years, Chargers are 6-15-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Miami Dolphins
Last year, Miami made playoffs for first time since 2008.
Last time Dolphins won a playoff game? 2000 (0-2 in playoffs last 20 years).
Last six years, Dolphins are 13-5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Miami is 7-2 ATS in AFC East home games. 

New England Patriots
Since Tom Brady left, Patriots are 25-25 in regular season, 0-1 in playoff games.
25-26 in three years, despite being +17 in turnovers in those games.
Last 10 years, New England is 28-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five years, Patriots are 10-17-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

New Jersey Jets
Jets haven’t made playoffs since 2010, so they got Aaron Rodgers to play QB.
Last three years, Gang Green was 13-37 SU/20-30 ATS
Last 10 years, Jets are 11-17 ATS as a home favorite, 29-22-2 as a home underdog.
Last 10 years, underdogs are 20-10 ATS in Jets’ AFC East home games.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Last five years, Pittsburgh is 0-2 in playoff games.
Last six years, Steelers are 16-21 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Tomlin is 25-41-1 ATS as road favorite, 36-23-1 as a road dog.
Last nine years, under is 46-22-3 in Steeler road games.

Tennessee Titans
Last year was Tennessee’s first losing season since 2015.
Last three years, underdogs are 15-6-1 ATS in Titan road games.
Last three years, Titans are 10-15 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, under is 12-4-1 in Tennessee home games. 

Arizona Cardinals
Were 50-32-1 in five years under Bruce Arians; why did they fire him?
They’re 31-50-1 in five years since they fired him, 0-1 in playoff games.
Last four years, Cardinals are 5-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2013, Arizona is 9-20-1 ATS in NFC West home games.

Atlanta Falcons
Have had five straight losing seasons (32-50 SU/35-45-2 ATS)
Under Arthur Smith, Falcons are 4-10-2 ATS at home.
Since 2013, Atlanta is 18-34-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Carolina Panthers
Haven’t made playoffs since 2017; haven’t won playoff game since 2015.
Frank Reich is the new coach; he was 41-35-1 SU in five years with the Colts.
Last three years, Carolina was 0-9 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less points.
Last three years, Carolina was 10-3 ATS as an underdog 3 or less points.

Chicago Bears
Made playoffs in 2018/2020; last playoff win was in 2010.
Last 10 years, they had one winning season, were 8-8 three times.
Last four years, Bears are 9-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 10 years, Chicago is 14-27-2 ATS as an underdog in divisional games.

Dallas Cowboys
Went 24-10 SU last two years, scoring 29.3 ppg; why fire the offensive coordinator?
Last two years, Cowboys are +24 in turnovers, 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 10 years, Dallas is 16-8 ATS as a home favorite in NFC East games.
Since 2010, Dallas is 116-94 SU in regular season, 3-4 in playoff games.

Detroit Lions
Last time Detroit won a playoff game? 1991.
Last time Lions made the playoffs? 2016.
Last 10 games last year, Detroit was 8-2 SU/9-1 ATS.
In his career, Jared Goff is 56-48-1 SU as a starting QB.

Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is the new QB, Packers’ first new starting QB since 2008.
Last four years, Green Bay is +39 in turnovers.
Last 10 years, Green Bay is 39-24-2 ATS as a divisional favorite.
Last two years, Packers were 1-6-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
In six seasons, Sean McVay is 7-3 SU in playoff games.
Last two years, Rams are 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McVay, Rams are 8-4 ATS as a divisional road favorite.

— Movie of the Day: Double Jeopardy (1999)— A woman framed for her husband’s murder suspects he is still alive; she has already been tried for the crime, so she can’t be re-prosecuted if she finds and kills him.

Ashley Judd is the woman; Tommy Lee Jones is her parole officer who tries to find her— they’re both in New Orleans when she finds the man she had supposedly killed.

Minnesota Vikings
Vikings were 13-4 last year, their best regular season since 2009.
Vikings were 11-0 last year in games decided by 8 or less points.
Kirk Cousins is 47-35-1 SU as Minnesota’s quarterback.
Last 10 years, Minnesota is 43-29-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.

New Jersey Giants
Went 9-7-1 LY, won playoff game, their first winning season since 2016.
Were 8-4-1 last year in games decided by 8 or less points.
In Daboll’s first season as coach, Giants were 8-2 ATS as an underdog.
Giants were +1 in turnovers last year; were minus-25 from 2020-22. 

New Orleans Saints
Saints were 7-10 LY, their first year since 2005 without Sean Payton as coach.
New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers LY (+31 from 2020-22).
New QB is Derek Carr; he was 63-80 as Raiders’ QB, 0-1 in playoff games.
Since 2014, Saints are 24-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles made playoffs 5 of last 6 years; they won NFC title last year.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite, 8-14 ATS in other games.
Last five years, Eagles are 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sirianni, over is 12-5 in Eagle home games.

San Francisco 49ers
Last two years, 49ers went 23-11 in regular season, lost twice in NFC title game.
Last four years, Niners are 14-6 ATS on artificial turf.
SF was 7-1 ATS as a home favorite LY; they were 7-16-1 from 2018-22.
Who is QB going to be? Purdy? Lance? Darnold?

Seattle Seahawks
Finished over .500 10 of last 11 years; last six seasons, they’re 1-4 in playoff games.
In his NFL career, Pete Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS as a divisional road favorite.
Seattle is 6-11 in its last 17 games that were decided by 8 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In 3 years with Brady at QB, Bucs went 32-18 in regular season, 5-2 in playoffs.
In his 5-year career, Baker Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter, 1-1 in playoff games.
Last four years, Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, under was 11-5 in Buccaneers’ road games.

Washington Commanders
Since 2006, Washington is 0-4 in playoff games.
Last time Washington finished over .500? 2016.
Since 2018, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 10 years, Washington is 11-19 ATS in NFC East home games. 

— Last 10 years, Texas Longhorns are 27-36 ATS coming off a win.

— Oklahoma was 6-7 SU last year; from 2013-21, they were 97-21.

— Since 2016, Kansas State is 18-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS as a favorite.

— Since 2016, TCU is 10-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Horned Frogs are 18-12-2 ATS in their last 32 games outside the Big X. 

— Last four years, Baylor is 31-19 SU, +33 in turnovers.
Last two years, Bears are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.

— Last three years, Texas Tech is 19-17 SU, despite a minus-22 turnover ratio.
Last four years, Red Raiders are 5-11 ATS as a road underdog. 

— Since 2015, Oklahoma State is 17-8 ATS as an underdog.

— Central Florida is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
UCF is 16-24 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite.

— Under Campbell, Iowa State is 21-11-2 ATS as an underdog.

— In his career, Leipold is 29-14-2 ATS in home games.
Last ten years, Kansas hasn’t been favored at all on the road.

— Last seven years, BYU is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.

— Last five bowl games, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS.
Since 2018, Mountaineers are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite. 

— In his career, Houston coach Holgorson is 18-12 ATS as a road underdog, 27-42-1 ATS in home games. 

— Last three years, Cincinnati was 31-6 SU, but 0-3 in bowl games, losing by a combined score of 75-34. New coach Satterfield is 4-1 SU in bowl games.

— Movie of the Day: Hoop Dreams (1994)— A documentary following the lives of two inner-city Chicago high school kids who struggle to become college basketball players on the road to going pro. Real life movies are generally better than fiction; no happy endings here. 

One player goes to a private school, the school Isiah Thomas went to, but he hurts his knee which hampers his play. He winds up playing three years at Marquette.

The second player winds up playing at a public high school, then in college at Arkansas State.

Neither player made it to the NBA. 

This is a good movie, realistic as documentaries are.

— College football bowl Trend of the Day— Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight Alamo Bowls.

— Random extra college football trend: Last three years, Alabama is 13-5-1 ATS as a home favorite. 

— Air Force
Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
Calhoun is 35-26-2 ATS as an underdog.

— Boise State
Since 207, Broncos are 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Last three years, Boise is 7-13 ATS coming off a win. 

— Colorado State
Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State. 

— Fresno State
Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS
Fresno win its last four bowl game, scoring 30.8 ppg. 

— Hawai’i
Since 2019, Rainbows are 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2014, Hawai’i is 7-22-1 ATS as a home favorite. 

— Nevada
Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 11-17 ATS outside the Mountain West.

— UNLV
Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.

— New Mexico
Last six years, Lobos are 15-52 SU
Last two years, New Mexico was 2-13-1 ATS in Mountain West games.

— San Diego State
Since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite. 

— San Jose State
Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Brennan, San Jose is 17-13-1 ATS at home. 

— Utah State
Over last 10 years, Aggies are 25-14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Over last 10 years, Aggies are 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.

— Wyoming
Under Bohl, Wyoming is 30-21-1 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 21-14 ATS coming off a loss.

It is the All-Star break already; time flies. It has been an interesting baseball season. Here are some quick notes/impressions from the season so far:

— AL Central is terrible; Cleveland (45-45) is in first place, with the Twins (45-46) a half-game behind. All in all, the AL Central is 124-191 (.394) outside its division this season.

— AL East is very good; the Red Sox (48-43) are in last place. All in all, the AL East is 190-127 (.599) outside its division this season.

— In five of six divisions, the division leader has a lead of 2 games or less— lot of close races. Only the 60-29 Atlanta Braves have a decent-sized lead, leading NL East by 8.5 games. Braves have won 27 of their last 32 games.

— Mets have a payroll of $377,380,805; they’re 42-48, seven games out of a playoff spot.

Mets are 32-27 vs righty starting pitchers, 10-21 vs lefty starters.

— Padres have a payroll of $250,806,874; they’re 43-47, six games out of a playoff spot.

— Cincinnati has a payroll of $83,688,333; they’re 25-8 in last 33 games, lead the NL Central. 

— Miami Marlins have a payroll of $103,692,500; they’re 53-39, 21-6 in one-run games, and right now, they’re a playoff team.

Last time the Marlins had a winning 162-game season was 2009, when they went 87-75- they were 31-29 in the short season of 2020. Skip Schumaker is your favorite for National League Manager of the Year.

— Texas Rangers have five starters in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, the most for any team since the 1976 Cincinnati Reds.

Rangers haven’t been in the playoffs since 2016; the last three years, they were 150-234 (.391) but Bruce Bochy is a Hall of Fame manager and Texas is much improved at 52-39 this season, even though they hit the All-Star break on a 5-11 skid.

Texas has $200,684,308 payroll; will they look to enhance their roster at the trade deadline?

— This stat is a little weird, but thru Saturday’s games, in AB’s when Mets’ 1B Pete Alonso had an 0-2 count him, he is 5-68 this season. 5 for freakin’ 68 (.074).

By way of comparison:
Freddie Freeman is 20-67 (.299) this season after having an 0-2 count.
Fernando Tatis is 10-52 (.192)
Luis Arraez is 16-53 (.302).

— Bronx Bombers have a payroll of $273,528,489; Aaron Judge is hurt obviously, but they’ve got other stars, and those stars aren’t producing. New York is 49-42, and right now they’re on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.

Bronx is 14-17 since Judge got hurt, hitting .218 in those games; they fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson after Sunday’s loss to the Cubs.

It is New York’s first in-season coaching change since Nardi Contreras replaced Billy Connors in July 1995 as pitching coach on Buck Showalter’s staff. 28 years without an in-season coaching change, long time. 

Funny thing is, Bronx opens the post-All-Star Game part of the year in Colorado Friday, where they figure to put up better-than-usual hitting numbers.

— Los Angeles Angels have a payroll of $215,490,192, but Mike Trout is hurt, Anthony Rendon has been a complete bust and the Halos are 45-46, losing nine of last 10 games. Shohei Ohtani is a free agent after this season; the Angels are 5 games out of the last playoff spot. 

Angels are 37-29 vs righty starters, 8-17 vs lefties. 

Would they trade Ohtani and if they wanted to, what could they get for a guy who will be a free agent three months from now?

— Tampa Bay Rays started the season 13-0, then 29-7; since then, they’re 29-28 and lead the AL East by only two games over Baltimore. Tampa’s starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries; would they make a move at the trade deadline?

—- Toronto Blue Jays are 50-41, seven games behind the Rays— they’d be a Wild Card team right now. Blue Jays are 7-20 vs their AL East rivals, 43-21 against everyone else.

— Teams that are struggling in one-run games:
San Diego 5-15
St Louis 9-19
Minnesota 9-15
Seattle 10-16
Texas 5-12

— Movie of the Day— Rounders (1998)— A young gambler returns to playing high stakes poker to help a friend pay off loan sharks, while balancing his relationship with his girlfriend and his commitments to law school.

Matt Damon is the gambler; Edward Norton plays his friend. John Malkovich is a Russian mobster who runs a poker room, John Turturro plays Joey Knish, e veteran gambler who is a mentor of sorts. Martin Landau is a law professor.

This movie helps propel the poker boom in the late 90’s/early 2000’s. Very good movie, written by the same guys who write the Showtime series Billions.

— College football bowl trend of the day— In the Reliaquest Bowl, SEC teams are 6-2 SU vs Big 14 teams the last eight years.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t)
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Arizona-Marlins-Giants
AL: Rays, Guardians, Rangers. Wild Cards: Orioles, Astros, Blue Jays. 

— Las Vegas
Raiders were 6-11 last year, 4-9 in games decided by 8 or less points.
Last three years, over is 17-7-1 in Raider home games.
Las Vegas is 8-15 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.

— LA Chargers
Chargers are #1 in NFL in salary spent on defensive players.
12 of their 17 games LY (7-5) were decided by 8 or less points.
Chargers ran 41 plays inside opponents’ 5-yard line; 21 of them were passes.

— Rams
Rams lost four games last year that they led at halftime.
Rams were outscored 176-111 in second half, 107-63 in 4th quarter.
Four different quarterbacks started a game LY; the subs were 2-6.

— Miami
Last three years, Dolphins are 18-7 ATS at home, 10-4 when favored.
Last three years, Dolphins are 16-10 ATS as an underdog.
Miami played 11 games LY (6-5) decided by 8 or less points. 

— Minnesota
Vikings were 11-0 last year in games decided by 8 or less points.
Minnesota outscored opponents 150-81 in fourth quarter.
Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games. 

— New England
Since Brady left Foxboro, Patriots are 25-25 SU in regular season.
Last three years, New England is 8-14 ATS as an underdog.
Last year, Patriots were outscored 162-138 in 4th quarter. 

— New Orleans
Saints were minus-11 in turnovers LY, with only 14 takeaways.
New Orleans is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 sixteen home games.
Last two years, under is 21-13 in Saints games. 

— Giants
Giants were 9-7-1 LY; they were favored in only five games.
Big Blue were 8-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Giants ran 31 plays inside opponents’ 5-yard line; 28 of them were runs. 

— Jets
Last three years, Jets are 7-18 SU at home.
Jets scored only 41 first quarter points last year (60-41)
Gang Green was minus-7 in turnovers LY (23-16)

— Philadelphia
Last two years, Eagles are 12-5 ATS at home.
QB Hurts ran ball 44 times in red zone last year, 20 times inside 5-yard line.
Eagles lost both of last year’s coordinators to head coaching jobs.

— Pittsburgh
Last three years, Steelers are 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, under is 11-5-1 in games at Heinz Field.
LY, Harris ran ball 42 times in red zone; next highest was 13.

— San Francisco
49ers were 13-4 LY; only four of their games were decided by 8 or less points.
Niners were 10-5 ATS as a favorite LY (9-13 ATS in 2020-21)
49ers were +13 (30-17) in turnovers last year.

— Seattle
Underdogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Seahawks were 4-6 LY in games decided by 8 or less points, 3-0 in games decided by 3 or less.
Since 2016, Seattle has drafted nine running backs, most in the NFL.

— Tampa Bay
LY, Bucs won four games they trailed at half, lost three games they led at half.
Last two years, Tampa Bay is 5-10 ATS as a road favorite.
With Brady gone, Bucs are #32 in NFL in salaries spent on QB’s,

— Tennessee
Last two years, Titans were 11-5 ATS as an underdog.
Tennessee was outscored 184-94 in second half last year.
Henry ran ball 40 times in red zone LY; next highest was 7 rushes.

— Washington
Last three years, Commanders are 9-6 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Commanders are 10-15 SU at home.
Washington was 5-3 LY in games decided by 8 or less points. 

— Of the last 24 quarterbacks drafted either #1 or #2 in the NFL Draft, only Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him.

Matthew Stafford has won a Super Bowl, but for the Rams, not the Lions. Manning later won a Super Bowl for Denver, after he won one with the Colts.

Eli Manning won two Super Bowls for the Giants, but he was drafted by the Chargers, and then traded to the Giants. 

— Arizona— Last three years, Cardinals are 7-12 ATS vs NFC West opponents.
Arizona lost its last seven games LY, going 3-4 ATS.
Right now, Cardinals are an underdog in every game this season.

— Atlanta— Last three years, Falcons are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Falcons were 6-0 ATS in first six games LY; they were 3-8 ATS after that.

— Baltimore— Last two years, Ravens are 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Ravens are 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In 2021, under was 5-3 in their last eight games; LY, under was 5-2 in their last seven.

— Buffalo— Last four years, Bills are 13-7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last year, Buffalo was 4-1-1 ATS in first six games, 4-8 ATS after that. 

— Carolina— Last four years, Panthers are 5-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Panthers are 12-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Last year, Carolina started out 1-5 ATS; after that, they were 8-3 ATS.

— Chicago— QB Justin Fields has started 25 games for the Bears (8-16-1 ATS)
Bears lost their last ten games in 2022 (2-8 ATS).
Chicago’s last win in a playoff game was in 2010.

— Cincinnati— Last two years, Bengals are 27-13 ATS, 13-4 as an underdog.
Bengals covered 16 of their last 19 games outside the AFC North.

— Cleveland— Last four years, Browns new 3-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three years, Cleveland is 7-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Under was 6-1 in their last seven games last year.

— Dallas— Last two years, Cowboys are 24-13 ATS, 18-9 as a favorite.
Dallas averaged 13.2 yards/point last year, the best figure in the league.
Despite that, OC Kellen Moore was canned, and now works for the Chargers.

— Denver— Last four years, Broncos are 6-18 SU/10-14 ATS vs AFC West rivals.
Last four years, Denver is 11-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Last year, Broncos averaged 19.3 yards/point, worst in the NFL.
New HC Payton’s presence should ramp up Denver’s offense.

— Detroit— Last two years, Lions are 19-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
Detroit started out 1-6 SU last year, wound up going 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Lions averaged 6.3 ppg in first quarter last year, best in the NFL.

— Green Bay— Obviously, Packers have a new QB this year, first time since 2007.
Last four years, Green Bay is 13-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2019, Packers are 15-9 ATS in divisional games.
Under LaFleur, Green Bay is 42-29 ATS.

— Houston— DeMeco Ryans is Houston’s fourth head coach in four years.
Texans have been favored in only four of their last 25 home games.
Houston was 3-13-1 SU LY, but they did cover four of last five games- they competed.

— Indianapolis— Last four years, Colts are 5-13 ATS in divisional games.
Last three years, Indianapolis is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Colts lost 10 of last 11 games last year (3-8 ATS).

— Jacksonville— Jaguars were 10-9 SU last year; from 2019-21, they were 10-39 SU
Underdogs covered all eight of their home games last year.
Jaguars started out 4-8 SU last year, then won six of last seven games.

— Kansas City— Last three years, Chiefs are 6-12 ATS in divisional games.
Kansas City is 23-30-1 ATS in its last 54 games as a favorite.
Right now, Chiefs are favored in all their games this coming season. 

Illinois
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— They’ll have a new QB; one candidate started 12 games at Ball State.
— since 2017, Illinois is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.

Indiana
— Hoosiers are 6-18 SU the last two years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 97 starts back on OL, lot of those are transfers.
— They also hired a new offensive line coach, from Wisconsin.
— who will new QB be? Could be Tennessee soph transfer Tayven Jackson
— under Allen, Hoosiers are 12-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Allen, Indiana is 13-18 ATS on the road.
— Indiana lost its last six bowls; their last win was the 1991 Copper Bowl.
— Hoosiers did cover three of their last four bowls.

Iowa
— Iowa has had 10 straight winning years; they were never in top 25 last year. 
— Iowa went 8-5 LY, despite scoring only 17.7 ppg.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— new QB McNamara started 16 games at Michigan.  
— last 10 years, Iowa is 21-6-1 ATS as a road favorite. 
— Hawkeyes are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 road games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)

Maryland
— Terps were 7-6/8-5 the last two seasons, after 6 straight losing years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— senior QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother) has 28 career starts.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 8-14 ATS on the road.  
— in his career, Locksley is 21-32 ATS as an underdog.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.

Michigan
— last two years, Wolverines were 25-3 SU, 17-9-2 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy has 13 career starts (22 TD passes, 5 INT LY).
— Last two years, Wolverines are 5-2-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Last two years, Michigan was 12-6-2 ATS in conference games. 
— Since 2016, Michigan is 5-10 ATS coming off a loss. 
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four

Michigan State
— Spartans were 5-7 LY, after going 11-2 the year before.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts back on offensive line
— whoever new QB will be is an inexperienced QB. 
— Under Tucker, MSU is 7-5 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2017, Spartans are 7-17 ATS coming off a win.
— since 2017, Spartans are 17-24-2 ATS in Big 14 games.
— Spartans won three of their last four bowls.

Minnesota
— Gophers went 9-4/9-4 the last two seasons.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB Kaliakmanis started 5 games last year.
— In his career, Fleck is 34-25-1 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Fleck is 20-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last four years, Gophers are 19-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Minnesota won its last six bowls, covering four of last five.

Nebraska
— New HC Rhule was HC at Temple/Baylor, Carolina Panthers.
— Last six years, Nebraska is 23-45 SU/30-36-2 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Sims started 23 games at Georgia Tech.
— In his college career, Rhule is 31-13 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Rhule is 28-12 ATS on the road.
— Since 2015, Cornhuskers are 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Nebraska’s last bowl was in 2016; they’re 2-3 SU in last five bowls.

Northwestern
— Last two years, Northwestern was 4-20 SU/8-16 ATS
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— QB’s all got hurt LY; Cincy transfer Bryant started 11 games there.
— since 2018, Wildcats are 4-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Northwestern is 21-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wildcats are 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 non-conference games.
— Northwestern won its last four bowls, but last one was in 2020.

Ohio State
— Last ten years, Buckeyes are 116-15 SU/68-62-1 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— whoever the QB is will be inexperienced.
— Last 10 years, Buckeyes are 4-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 16-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 7-9  ATS outside the Big 14
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.

Penn State
— Last two years, Penn State is +11/+6 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB threw 60 passes as the backup LY.
— last two years, Penn State is 7-4-1 ATS as home favorites.
— last four years, Penn State is 9-4 ATS as road favorites.
— since 2015, Nittany Lions are 39-17-3 ATS coming off a win. 
— Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Purdue
— New HC Walters was DC at Illinois the last two years.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— all the QB’s are new; junior QB Card started 5 games at Texas.
— last two years, Purdue was 9-4/8-6 SU
— since 2018, Boilers are 4-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2014, Purdue is 23-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Purdue is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls, giving up 52.8 ppg.

Rutgers
— since 2015, Rutgers is 25-69 SU/44-50 ATS.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starters back on offensive line; new OL coach comes from NFL.
— soph QB started 6 games last year. 
— since 2018, Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Rutgers is 4-14 ATS as a home underdog.
— in his college career, Schiano is 31-19-1 ATS as a road underdog
— Rutgers is 1-3 in its last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2014.

Wisconsin
— new coach Fickell has a 64-25 SU record as a head coach.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 24 games at SMU.
— last 10 years, Badgers are 23-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 10 years, Badgers are 26-14 ATS outside the Big 14.
— In his career, Fickell 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.