College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis

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Thursday’s games
Georgia State lost four of its last five games; they’re 0-2-1 as road underdogs this year, losing by 34-37-17 points on foreign soil. Before this year, Panthers had been 19-5-1 vs spread as road dogs- they allowed 337 rushing yards in 37-20 loss at Troy LW. Under Anderson, Arkansas State is 13-8 as home favorites, 0-1 this year- they lost last two games, scoring 21-9 points. Last four ASU games stayed under the total. ASU won its last four games with Georgia State, winning 48-34/35-33 in last two meetings played here. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-3. 

Stanford won five of last six games with Arizona State, but lost last trip to desert 26-10 (-3). Cardinal gave up 109 points in last three games, losing 38-17/40-21 in last two; they were out rushed 494-97 in last two games. Stanford is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorites, 1-0 this year- their last three games went over. Arizona St lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 7 points; Sun Devils covered six of last eight games as home underdogs. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread so far this season. 

Friday’s games
Boise State won its last six games with Colorado State, but games last two years were 28-23/59-52; Rams lost last three games on the Blue Turf by 5-13-28 points. Boise scored 31+ points in all four of its wins, were held to 21-13 in losses; they’re 5-16 vs spread in their last 21 home games, all as a favorite- three of their last four games stayed under. CSU won its last two games after a 1-4 start; under Bobo, Rams are 6-2 as road underdogs- they’re 1-1 in true road tilts this year, losing 48-10 at Florida (+20), winning 42-30 at San Jose State (-3). 

Air Force lost three of last four games, with one win over rival Navy; over last 3+ years, Falcons are 2-7 as road favorites- four of their last five games stayed under total. AF held San Diego St to 297 TY LW, but lost 21-17 on late TD pass. UNLV’s backup QB is completing 45.8% of his passes, not good enough. Rebels lost last three games, allowing 50-59 points in last two. Under Sanchez, UNLV is 1-5 as home underdogs. Air Force won its last two games with UNLV, 34-30/48-21; they won two of last three visits to the Strip, winning by 27-15 points. Falcons

Saturday’s best 13 games
Cincinnati is an underdog despite being 6-0; under Fickell, Bearcats are 6-1 as road underdogs, 2-0 this year. Cincy ran ball for 320-272 yards in last two games; they’re 2-0 on road this year, winning at UCLA/UConn. Temple won four of its last five games after an 0-2 start; Owls are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Temple won its last three games with Cincinnati, by 11-21-8 points; Bearcats won two of last three visits here, in series where road team won four of last six meetings. AAC home favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season. 

Virginia won its last three games with Duke, by 7-14-8 points; they lost two of last three visits to Duke, winning 34-20 in last visit here two years ago. Cavaliers upset Miami 16-13 at home LW despite being outgained by 108 yards; under Mendenhall, they’re 6-7 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Duke is 5-1 after winning at Ga Tech LW; Blue Devils ran ball for only 71-98 yards in last two games- last three years, they’re 5-4 as home favorites, 1-1 this year. ACC home favorites are 3-5 vs spread so far this season. 

Michigan State is 8-2 in its last 10 games with Michigan, covering all ten games; Wolverines won last visit here 32-23 (-25) two years ago, but lost 25-11/29-6 in previous two visits. Michigan won its last six games after an opening loss at Notre Dame; they beat Northwestern 20-17 in only other road games. Under Harbaugh, Michigan is 5-7 as road favorites. Spartans are 4-2; they were held under 20 points in both losses- they had big win at Penn St LW. MSU is 5-1 in last six games as home underdogs. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-8 vs spread this season. 

Home side won last three Houston-Navy games; Cougars (-17) lost 46-40 here two years ago. Navy is down a little this year, losing last three games, scoring total of 24 points in last couple games. Middies are 5-2 in last seven games as home underdogs. Houston has scored 41+ points in all five I-A games this year; they’re 4-8 in last dozen games as road favorites, 1-2 this year- all four of their I-A wins are by 15+ points, with 41-26 win over Tulsa closest win- they lost 63-49 at Texas Tech. AAC home underdogs are 5-3 this season; AAC home teams are 11-5 overall. 

Arizona (+2) beat UCLA 47-30 LY, snapping 5-game skid vs Bruins; Wildcats lost last three visits to Rose Bowl, by 21-10-56 points. Arizona is 2-11 vs spread in last 13 games as a road favorite, 0-2 this year, with road losses 45-18 at Houston, 42-10 at Utah LW. Wildcats gave up 450+ TY in each of last three games. UCLA got first win LW after an 0-5 start; Bruins were +5 in TO’s LW, but are 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games as home favorites. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread this year. Last four Arizona games stayed under total. 

Washington State won last three games with Oregon, by 23-18-7 points; teams split last two meetings played here, with average total in those games, 76.5. Oregon scored 72 points in winning its last two games, edging Washington 30-27 LW. Ducks are 1-5-1 in last seven games as road underdogs. Wazzu is 15-8 in its last 23 games as home favorites; Coogs are 5-1 this year, with 39-36 loss at USC- they allowed 481 YR in last two games, but they did have last week off. Pac-12 favorites are 12-8 against the spread this season, 6-4 at home. 

Washington won its last six games with Colorado, winning 59-7/52-24 in last two games played here. Under Petersen, Huskies are 9-5 vs spread coming off a loss; they gained 437+ TY in each of last three games, but lost 30-27 at Oregon LW. Buffs lost 31-20 at USC LW, their first loss after a 5-0 start; Colorado is 9-6 in last 15 games as road underdogs- under MacIntyre, they’re 17-16 vs spread coming off a loss. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread this year. Four of last five U-Dub games, last three Colorado games stayed under total. 

Oklahoma won its last four games with TCU, with average total of 68.3. Sooners won two of last three visits to TCU; all three of those games were decided by 7 or fewer points. Oklahoma fired its DC after 48-45 loss to rival Texas two weeks ago; under Riley, Sooners are 1-3 as road faves, 0-1 this year. Horned Frogs lost three of last four games, were held to 16-17-14 points in last three; since ’13, TCU is 3-1 as home underdogs- their last three games stayed under total. Big X home underdogs are 6-2 vs spread this year. Over is 5-1 in Oklahoma games this year. 

Clemson won its last six games vs NC State, winning last three played here, by 7-41-14 points; they won last two games vs Wolfpack by seven points each. Tigers ran ball for 471 yards in LW’s 63-3 win, with #2 QB Lawrence back under center. Since 2013, Clemson is 17-15-1 as home favorites, but they’re 0-2 this year, barely beat Syracuse 27-23 in last home tilt. Wolfpack is 5-0 with only one road win, 37-20 at Marshall. Under Doeren, NC State is 6-8-1 vs spread as a road underdog. ACC home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season. 

Missouri allowed 119 points in losing its first three SEC games, with a -5 TO ratio; under Odom, they’re 7-5 as home favorites, 5-1 when laying double digits. Memphis lost 31-30 to UCF LW, giving up last 17 points of game; Tigers are 6-3-2 in last 11 games as road underdogs. Memphis is 0-2 on road this year, losing 22-21 at Navy, 40-24 at Tulane; could Missouri take out some of their frustrations here? SEC home favorites are 10-7 vs spread outside the conference; AAC road underdogs are 7-4 vs spread. Over is 4-1 in Mizzou games, 0-3 in last three Memphis tilts. 

Ole Miss was down 31-7 at half LW but rallied to win 37-33 at Arkansas; Rebels gained 826-611 TY in last two games, throwing for 904 yards. Since ’09, Ole Miss is 8-13 vs spread when getting points at home. Auburn won four of last five games with Ole Miss, winning 40-29/35-31 in last two visits here. Tigers lost last two games overall, losing as 15-point favorite to Tennessee LW. Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-4-1 as road favorites, 0-1 this year. SEC home underdogs are 8-6 vs spread this season. Four of last five Auburn games stayed under. 

Mississippi State/LSU split their last four meetings, with Bulldogs covering all four games; MSU lost two of last three visits to Baton Rouge, with losses by 3-20 points. Bulldogs scored only 36 points in losing two of first three SEC games; MSU is 9-5 vs spread in last 14 games as road underdogs. LSU upset Georgia at home LW; under Orgeron, Tigers are 3-4 as home favorites. SEC home favorites are 5-7 vs spread this season; SEC favorites are 15-11 overall this year. Under is 4-1 in Miss State games; last four LSU games went over the total. 

Home side won last five USC-Utah games; Trojans lost 31-27/24-21 in last two visits here. USC won its last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg; under Helton, USC is just 1-5 as road underdogs- they lost 17-3 at Stanford, 37-14 at Texas this year, but won last road tilt, 24-20 at Arizona. Utes scored 40-42 points in winning their last two games; Utah covered five of its last six games as home favorites. Utah ran ball for 204+ yards in last three games; Wazzu/Stanford burned their pass defense with 445-381 PY. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread this season.  

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College football
2017-18 bowl records
AAC: 4-3SU, 3-3F, 1-0U, 4-3 vs spread
ACC: 4-6SU, 3-2F, 0-4U, 3-7 vs spread
Big 14: 7-1SU, 5-2F, 1-0U, 6-2 vs spread
Big X: 5-3SU, 2-1F, 2-3U, 4-4 vs spread
C-USA: 4-5SU, 1-1F, 3-4U, 4-5 vs spread
MAC: 1-4SU, 1-1F, 0-3U, 1-4 vs spread
MW: 3-3SU, 1-3F, 2-0U, 3-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 1-8SU, 1-2F, 1-5U, 2-7 vs spread
SEC: 4-5SU, 2-3F, 4-0U, 6-3 vs spread
Sun Belt: 4-1SU, 1-1F, 3-0U, 4-1 vs spread


2016-17 bowl records
AAC: 2-4SU, 1-4F, 0-1U, 1-5 vs spread
ACC: 8-3SU, 4-1F, 5-1U, 9-2 vs spread
Big 14: 3-7SU, 0-3-1F, 4-2U, 4-5-1 vs spread
Big X: 4-2SU, 1-1F, 3-1U, 4-2 vs spread
C-USA: 4-2SU, 2-3F, 1-0U, 3-3 vs spread
MAC: 0-6SU, 3-2-1U, 3-2-1 vs spread
MW: 4-3SU, 1-3F, 3-0U, 4-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 3-3SU, 0-5F, 0-1U, 0-6 vs spread
SEC: 6-6SU, 4-2F, 2-4U, 6-6 vs spread
Sun Belt: 3-4SU, 1-1F, 3-2U, 4-3 vs spread

2015-16 bowl results

Conference
SU
F
U
pts
O/U
ACC
4-7
0-3
4-3
4-6
7-2-1
American
2-6
1-1
2-4
3-5
4-4
Big 14
5-5
3-1
2-4
5-5
6-4
Big X
2-4
0-2
1-3
1-5
5-1
Conference USA
3-2
3-0
0-2
3-2
4-1
MAC
3-4
1-1
3-2
4-3
4-3
Mountain West
4-4
3-2
2-1
5-3
3-5
Pac-12
6-4
5-4
1-0
6-4
8-2
SEC
9-2
8-2
0-1
8-3
7-3-1
Sun Belt
2-2
0-1
1-2
1-3
3-1