College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis


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College football

Tuesday’s games
Akron won three of last four games with Kent, with wins by 4-20-9 points; Flashes lost last two visits here, 20-0/16-7. Underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in last 14 series games. Akron split its last four games; they’re 7-1 vs spread in last eight. Zips are 3-0 in MAC home games; their last two home wins were by total of 4 points. Kent State lost its last four games, allowing 42+ points in all four; they’re 2-4 vs spread as a road underdog this year, losing 42-3/24-3 in two games they covered. Under is 8-2 in Akron games this year; last four Kent games all went over.

Bowling Green won eight of last ten games with Eastern Michigan, but Falcons were double digit favorite in 7 of those 10 games, now EMU is the better team. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. BG lost four of its last five games; they’re 1-4 vs spread as a road underdog, but they’ve won two of three MAC road games. Eastern is 4-7 with five losses by 5 or less points; Eagles they’re 2-2 SU at home, 2-2 vs spread when favored this year. Falcons’ last six games went over the total; over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six games.

Underdogs covered five of last six Miami-Ball State games; Red Hawks won three of last four visits to Muncie- they lost 55-14 in last visit here, in 2013. Miami lost five of its last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win at Central Michigan. Red Hawks are 1-6 vs spread as a favorite this year. Ball State lost its last eight games; they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven. Cardinals are 2-2 vs spread at home this season. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Miami games; over is 7-1 in last eight Ball State games.

Thursday’s game
Mississippi State pounded Ole Miss 55-20 LY, just their 2nd win in last five Egg Bowls; State ran ball for 457 yards in LY’s game. Rebels lost three of last four visits to Starkville, with losses by 7-28-14 points. Ole Miss is 1-3 on road, with only win 37-34 win at Kentucky; 2-1 as a road underdog. Miss State won five of its last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as a favorite this year; they covered five of last six games overall. Over is 7-1 in last eight Ole Miss games, under is 7-2 in State’s last nine. This is last game of season for Rebels, who are on probation.

Weekend’s best 13 games
Virginia lost four of its last five games; they played their hearts out in Miami LW, losing 44-28 to undefeated ‘canes (led 28-14 in 3rd 1/4). Cavaliers are 4-2 at home, losing to BC/Indiana; they are 4-3 vs spread as an underdog. Virginia Tech lost their last two road games, at Ga Tech, Miami; they’re 1-2 as road favorites. Tech won its last 13 games with Virginia; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Hokies won their last six visits to Charlotteville (4-2 vs spread). Dogs are 12-8 vs spread in ACC league play. Under is 6-2 in Hokies’ last eight games.

Indiana/Purdue are both 5-6; this rivalry game is for a bowl bid, too. Hoosiers are 2-3 on road, winning at Virginia/Illinois. Indiana is 2-6 vs spread in its last eight games, 1-4 as an underdog. Purdue lost four of last six games but upset Iowa LW; Boilermakers are 4-1 vs spread when a favorite this year. Indiana won its last four games with Purdue, scoring 39.8 ppg; Hoosiers lost seven of last nine visits to Ross-Ade Stadium (favorites 7-2 vs spread). Home favorites are 18-15 vs spread in Big 14 conference games. Last six Purdue games stayed under the total.

Ohio State won its last five games with Michigan, but Wolverines covered three of last four. Buckeyes won five of last six visits to Ann Arbor, winning 42-13/42-41 in last two. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last eight series games (one pick ‘em). Ohio St scored 100 points in winning its last two games; 8 of their 9 wins this year are by 28+ points. Michigan is 3-4 vs spread in last eight games as an underdog, 0-2 this year- Wolverines are 1-3 vs spread this year, in games with a double digit spread. Big 14 home underdogs are 12-13 vs spread in league play.

Probably last home game in Manhattan for legendary coach Snyder, who built this program from nothing. Kansas State lost its last three home games, allowing 32 ppg- they have severe injury issues at QB. Iowa State is 4-1 on road with only loss 20-16 at West Va; ISU is 3-3-1 as an underdog this season. K-State won its last nine games with Iowa State, last three by 4-3-5 points; Cyclones are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six series games- they lost last five visits to Little Apple, by 3-34-7-8-21 points. Under is 7-2 in Iowa State’s last nine games.

Road team won last four Georgia-Georgia Tech games, all decided by 7 or less points; Dawgs won last eight visits to Atlanta (8-0 vs spread). Favorites covered four of last six series games; visitor is 16-2-1 vs spread in last 19. Georgia has SEC title game next week, but needs this win to stay in national title hunt. Jackets lost three of last four games; they’re 3-0-1 vs spread as an underdog this season. Since 2015, ACC teams are 16-11 vs spread when playing an SEC opponent. Five of last six Georgia games, four of last five Tech games went over total.

Washington State split its four road games, losing 37-3 at Cal, 58-37 at Arizona. Under Leach, Coogs are 22-14 vs spread as an underdog, 7-2 in last nine tries as a road dog. Washington is 3-2 as a home favorite this year; they allowed 30 points in each of last two games. Huskies won their last four games with Washington State, covered last three; Wazzu lost last three visits to Seattle, by 10-30-35 points. Home favorites are 17-10 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games. Three of last four Washington games went over; under is 6-2 in Coogs’ last eight games.

Stanford won seven of its last eight games after a 1-2 start; Cardinal has Pac-12 title game next week, so star RB Love could sit this game out. Stanford is 5-0 SU at home this year, 1-2 vs spread as an underdog. Notre Dame won eight of last nine games, is 3-1 on road, losing 41-8 at Miami two weeks ago- they’re 3-1 as a road favorite this season. Underdogs are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Notre Dame-Stanford games; Irish lost last four visits to the Farm, by 7-14-7-2 points. ND is 1-3-1 vs spread in last five series games as a favorite. Pac-12 non-conference home favorites are 3-9 vs spread.

South Carolina is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog this year; Clemson has ACC title game with Miami on deck. Clemson is 3-1 on road this year, but allowed 24 ppg in those games; Tigers are 6-11 in last 17 games as a road favorite, 2-2 this year. Favorites covered five of last seven Clemson-South Carolina tilts; Tigers won last three games, by 49-5-18 points, scoring 49.3 ppg- they’ve lost three of last four visits to Columbia. ACC non-conference faves are 11-6 vs spread, 2-1 on road. SEC non-conference dogs are 4-3. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Clemson games,

Word has it that Texas A&M will fire Kevin Sumlin after game; how will his players react? LSU won/covered its last six games with the Aggies, who lost last two visits to Death Valley, by 19-7/34-10 scores. A&M is 3-1-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; their three true road games were decided by total of 10 points. LSU won five of last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-2 as a double digit favorite this season. SEC home favorites are 14-16 vs spread in league play. Under is 5-2 in Aggies’ last seven games, 3-0 in LSU’s last three games.

Home side won last four Arizona-ASU games; Wildcats lost 52-37/58-21 in last two visits to Tempe. Favorites covered three of last four series games. Arizona is 7-4 but lost last two road games, 49-35 at USC, 48-28 at Oregon- they allowed 300+ rushing yards in both games. ASU is 4-2 SU at home, 1-2 as a home favorite; they ran ball for 320 yds/game the last three weeks. Pac-12 home underdogs are 14-8 vs spread in conference play. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total, as have Sun Devils’ last four games.

QB Mayfield won’t start his last home game for Oklahoma; how long he sits out is unknown. Sooners are 5-0 vs West Virginia in Big X play, scoring 56-44-45 in last three meetings (3-0 vs spread). Mountaineers lost last two visits here, 44-24/16-7. West Virginia lost QB Grier (finger) LW; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-24 at TCU. Oklahoma won its last six games, covered last four; they’re 4-1 vs spread as a home favorite this year. Home favorites are 9-11 vs spread in Big X conference play. Under is 3-1 in last four Sooner games, 3-0 in WVU’s last three.

Alabama won/covered five of last six Iron Bowls, winning last three by 18-16-11 points; Crimson Tide won three of last four visits to Jordan-Hare Stadium, winning by 16-28-5 points. Auburn scored 44 ppg in winning its last four games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year, losing 14-6 to Clemson, 27-23 to LSU. Alabama is 3-0 on road, winning last two 27-19 at A&M, 31-24 at Miss State; this is first time since Labor Day that Crimson Tide is in game with a single digit spread. Four of last six Alabama games stayed under; seven of last eight Auburn games went over.

Rough year for Gators/Seminoles; State needs win here and next week to go bowling- they’re 0-5-2 vs spread as favorites this year. FSU’s three I-A wins this year are by 7-7-3 points. Florida fired its coach already; they lost five of last six games- their two home losses were by total of three points. Gators are 1-4 as an underdog this season. Florida State won its last four games with Florida; three of the wins were by 18+ points. Seminoles won last three visits to the Swamp, by combined score of 85-16. Under is 7-1-1 in FSU tilts, 4-2 in last six Florida games.


Football picks
Washington State, +10.5

2017 college record: 5-4-2, plus 18 bledsoes



2016-17 bowl records
AAC: 2-4SU, 1-4F, 0-1U, 1-5 vs spread
ACC: 8-3SU, 4-1F, 5-1U, 9-2 vs spread
Big 14: 3-7SU, 0-3-1F, 4-2U, 4-5-1 vs spread
Big X: 4-2SU, 1-1F, 3-1U, 4-2 vs spread
C-USA: 4-2SU, 2-3F, 1-0U, 3-3 vs spread
MAC: 0-6SU, 3-2-1U, 3-2-1 vs spread
MW: 4-3SU, 1-3F, 3-0U, 4-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 3-3SU, 0-5F, 0-1U, 0-6 vs spread
SEC: 6-6SU, 4-2F, 2-4U, 6-6 vs spread
Sun Belt: 3-4SU, 1-1F, 3-2U, 4-3 vs spread

2015-16 bowl results

Conference
SU
F
U
pts
O/U
ACC
4-7
0-3
4-3
4-6
7-2-1
American
2-6
1-1
2-4
3-5
4-4
Big 14
5-5
3-1
2-4
5-5
6-4
Big X
2-4
0-2
1-3
1-5
5-1
Conference USA
3-2
3-0
0-2
3-2
4-1
MAC
3-4
1-1
3-2
4-3
4-3
Mountain West
4-4
3-2
2-1
5-3
3-5
Pac-12
6-4
5-4
1-0
6-4
8-2
SEC
9-2
8-2
0-1
8-3
7-3-1
Sun Belt
2-2
0-1
1-2
1-3
3-1