College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis

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2022 college football
Saturday’s game
Army
vs Navy (@ Philadelphia)
Army (5-6)
— Army scored 34+ points in wins; they’re 0-5 scoring less than 34.
— Last six games, Cadets are a combined 12-36/257 passing.
— Last six games, Army is +8 in turnovers.
— Army has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Army has only 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cadets use multiple QB’s; they’re all inexperienced. 
— Army is 18-15-2 ATS in last 35 games as an underdog.
— Army ran ball for 200+ yards in 9 of 11 games (UTSA/Air Force)
— Army has allowed 220+ rushing yards in 5 of 12 games TY.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Navy (4-7)
— Middies lost four of last six games, giving up 26.7 ppg.
— Last four games, Middies are a combined 10-22/192 passing.
— Navy gained 260 or less yards in three of last four games.
— 5 starters back on offense; 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on OL; junior QB has 10 starts.
— Navy is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite.
— Last five games, Middies are +5 in turnovers (minus-2 in first 6 games).
— Navy is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Navy is 3-2 scoring 23+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 23.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

— Last sixteen meetings in this rivalry stayed under the total.
— Army won four of last six games vs Navy.
— Since 1998, Army is 2-4 ATS as a favorite vs Navy. 

Bowl games
December 16
Bahamas Bowl

Miami OH vs UAB
Miami OH (6-6)
— Miami is 2-6 vs I-A teams if it scores less than 27 points.
— Red Hawks won last two games to become bowl eligible.
— Miami ran for less than 100 yards in four of last six games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Miami is 3-5 SU when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Red Hawks are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.
— Under is 9-2 in their I-A games this season. 
— Miami is 3-2 ATS in last 10 five bowls.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls.

Alabama-Birmingham (6-6)
— Trent Dilfer will coach UAB next year; they have an interim coach TY.
— UAB is 6-1 when it scores 34+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. 
— Blazers ran for 228+ yards in nine of 11 I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 14 starts
— UAB is 23-15-1 in last 39 games as a favorite (3-4 TY)
— Blazers allowed 200+ rushing yards in three of last four games.
— UAB lost four of its last six games SU.
— Blazers are 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in bowl games.

— Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in last seven Bahamas Bowls.
— Since 2018, C-USA teams are 10-5 ATS when play a MAC opponent. 
— UAB (+7) lost this game 41-6 five years ago.

Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Tex-San Antonio vs Troy
Tex-San Antonio (11-2)
— UTSA won its last ten games, scoring 40.6 ppg.
— Roadrunners gave up 37-41 points in their two losses.
— Last four games, UTSA is +10 in turnovers.
— Roadrunners ran ball for 209+ yards in five of last six games. 
— UTSA has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 121 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 30-9 SU under Traylor (26-46 from 2014-19).
— Under Traylor, UTSA is 9-3 ATS as an underdog (1-1 TY).
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— UTSA is 0-3 SU in bowls (2-1 ATS), losing 31-24/38-24 last two years.

Troy (11-2)
— Trojans also won their last ten games, giving up 15.1 ppg.
— Troy gave up 28-32 points in losses at Ole Miss, App State.
— Troy scored 34-48-45 points in its last three games.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Troy has 94 returning starts on offensive line.
— Troy’s QB has 8 career starts- he used to play at Missouri.
— Trojans are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Trojans’ last three games went over the total.
— Troy won its last four bowl games, scoring 42 ppg.
— Their last bowl, however, was back in 2018.

— Underdogs covered this bowl five of last six years.
— Sun Belt teams are 3-4 SU in this bowl.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA teams.

December 17
Fenway Bowl
(Boston)
Cincinnati
vs Louisville
Cincinnati (9-3)
— Bearcats won nine of their last 11 games SU.
— Cincy is 2-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Bearcats ran ball for 235 yards last game, only 3rd time this year.
— Cincy is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-3 when they don’t. 
— 8 starters back on offense; 5 on defense; 107 starts back on OL
— junior QB started 11 games at Eastern Michigan LY; he was backup here in ’19/’20.
— Last 4+ years, Bearcats are 53-10 SU
— Cincy is 2-3 SU last five bowls, losing 24-21/27-6 last two years.
— Six of Bearcats’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Cincinnati is 10-6 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
— Five of their last seven games were decided by 4 or less points.

Louisville (7-5)
— Louisville lost two of its last three games, scoring 18 ppg.
— Cardinals are 7-0 giving up 21 or less points, 0-5 allowing 26+ points.
— Louisville is +13 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Cardinals are +9 in turnovers TY (minus-23 previous four years)
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 116 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 38 starts
— Louisville is 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog (3-3 TY).
— Cardinals are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 non-conference games.
— Louisville lost three of its last four bowl games SU.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

Louisville coach Satterfield quit last week to take the Cincinnati job, making this an unusual bowl games, with two interim coaches in charge.

— This is the first-ever Fenway Bowl; game was cancelled last two years.
— ACC teams are 21-11 SU last 32 games vs AAC squads.
— Last two years, ACC teams are 7-1 ATS vs AAC opponents. 

New Mexico Bowl
SMU
vs BYU
SMU (7-5)
— SMU won four of last five games, scoring 44.2 ppg.
— SMU gained 511.4 yards/game in those five games.
— Mustangs allowed 439+ TY in three of last four games. 
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— SMU is 9-6 ATS last fifteen games as a favorite.
— SMU is 10-5 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY).
— Mustangs lost last two bowl games, 51-10/52-28.
— SMU’s bowl game LY was PPD; they last played in a bowl in ’19.
— QB Mordecai has completed 64.3% of passes, with 31 TD’s, 9 INTs.

BYU (7-5)
— BYU won its last three games, scoring 31-52-35 points.
— Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games.
— BYU is 6-0 giving up 26 or less points, 1-5 allowing 27+. 
— Cougars are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— BYU has 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has junior QB with 10 starts.
— BYU ran ball for 220+ yards three of last four games. 
— Cougars’ last three games went over the total.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU last five bowls (were favored in all five)

— Last six years, underdogs are 4-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.0. 

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Washington State vs Fresno State
Washington State (7-5)
— Coogs won three of last four games, scoring 36 ppg.
— Coogs ran for 63.6 ypg in losses, 145.7 in wins.
— Wazzu is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points; 0-5 if allow more than 20.
— Coogs are 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Coogs are 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 non-conference games (2-0 TY).
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Coogs lost four of last five bowl games (0-5 ATS)
— Under is 8-3 in Wazzu’s I-A games this year.

Fresno State (9-4)
— Fresno won its last eight games, after a 1-4 start.
— Last seven games, Fresno scored 37.7 ppg.
— Bulldogs are 8-1 if they score more than 20 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 19 starts
— Fresno is 12-5 ATS last 17 games as an underdog (2-3 TY).
— Bulldogs are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Bulldogs were held to 297-245 TY in last two games.
— Last three games, Fresno State is +7 in turnovers.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— Fresno won its last three bowls, scoring 33-31-31 points.
— Coach Tedford has a 7-3 record in bowl games.

— Utah State (+7) upset Oregon State 24-13 in first LA Bowl LY.
— Mountain West teams are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS vs Pac-12 teams TY.
— From 2017-21, MW teams were 25-16 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.

LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Rice vs Southern Mississippi
Rice (5-7)
— Rice lost its last three games, giving up 35.7 ppg.
— Owls are 5-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-7 if they score less.
— Six of their last nine games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line; 3 backups QB’s from LY return
— Last 4+ years, Owls are 16-38 SU (5-7 this year)
— Last four years, they’re 2-9 ATS as favorites, 22-19 as an underdog
— This is Rice’s first bowl game since 2014.
— Owls did win three of last four bowls.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.

Southern Miss (6-6)
— Southern Miss lost three of last four games SU.
— USM is 6-0 allowing 24 or less points, 0-6 giving up 26+points.
— Golden Eagles are 4-2 ATS last six games as a favorite.
— Southern Miss has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Eagles have 71 returning starts on offensive line.
— Southern Miss is 3-0 ATS TY in non-conference games.
— 2019-21, Golden Eagles were 3-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— USM is 1-3 SU/ATS in last four bowls (favorites 4-0 ATS)
— Golden Eagles’ last bowl was in 2019.
— Four of last five Southern Miss games went over the total.

— Until this year, Rice/Southern Miss were conference rivals in C-USA.
— Rice beat USM last two seasons, 30-6/24-19.
— Sun Belt teams won their last six appearances in this bowl.
— Underdogs are 3-2 ATS in last five LendingTree Bowls.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA opponents. 

Las Vegas Bowl
Florida vs Oregon State

Florida (6-6)
— Florida is 6-1 giving up less than 30 points, 0-5 if they allow 30+.
— Gators are 1-4 SU away from home TY (won 41-24 at Texas A&M)
— Underdogs covered 10 of their 12 games TY.
— Since 2018, Florida is 9-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators gained 445+ total yards in each of last four games. 
— Florida is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference games (2-1 TY).
— Gators lost last two bowls, 55-20/29-17.
— In his career, Napier is 2-1 SU in bowls.
— Over is 4-2 in Florida’s last six games.

Oregon State (9-3)
— Oregon State won six of last seven games, scoring 31.7 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 9-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Beavers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season. 
— Oregon State is 8-4 ATS in  last 12 non-conference games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— Oregon State lost three of last four bowls SU (favored in all four).
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

— Favorites are 6-2 ATS in last eight Las Vegas Bowls.
— Since 2015, SEC teams are 10-6 ATS vs Pac-12 squads (0-3 TY).
— Since 2011, SEC underdogs are 5-4 ATS vs Pac-12 squads.

Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
North Texas vs Boise State
North Texas (7-6)
— Mean Green is 5-3 SU in their last eight games.
— Last three games, North Texas was held to 21-21-27 points.
— UNT is 7-0 giving up 28 or less points, 0-6 allowing 31+.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 106 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 12 starts
— UNT is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog./
— Mean Green allowed 432+ TY in nine of last 12 games.
— UNT is 6-9 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY)
— Mean Green is bowling for sixth time in seven years,
— North Texas lost its last five bowls (1-4 ATS) giving up 44.6 ppg.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Boise State (9-4)
— Boise is 7-2 since changing OC’s, scoring 32.2 ppg.
— New OC Dirk Koetter was once head coach of the NFL’s Bucs. 
— Boise is 8-1 when it scores 20+ points. 
— Broncos ran ball for 248 ypg three of last four games.
— Boise has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Boise is 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games as a favorite.
— Broncos held six of last nine opponents under 275 TY.
— Boise is 5-8 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Boise lost two of last three bowl games.
— Broncos also had bowl games cancelled in 2018/2021.
— Three of their last four games overall stayed under total.

— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 38+ points in six of seven Frisco Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 10-8 SU last 18 games vs C-USA.
— Since 2011, C-USA underdogs are 17-12 ATS vs Mountain West teams.

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