College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis

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2018-19 bowls
December 15
New Mexico Bowl

Underdogs covered five of last six New Mexico Bowls. Utah State won this bowl four years ago, but lost 23-21/26-20 in last two bowls. Aggies are 10-2, losing first/last game; they were held 100 YR in both losses. State is 9-3 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite. North Texas is in its 3rd straight bowl; they lost 38-31/50-30 in bowls last two years. Favorites covered their last five bowl games. UNT is 9-3 this year; their last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points. Under Littrell, Mean Green is 10-9 as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Mountain West teams are 3-4 in this bowl last seven years. Under is 10-1 in UNT games this season; over is 8-3-1 in Utah State games. Last seven years, MW teams are 13-11 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent. 

Cure Bowl, Orlando
Tulane is in its first bowl since 2013; they had to beat a poor Navy team 29-28 in finale just to get to 6-6 and be bowl-eligible. Green Wave beat ULL 41-39 (-5) in OT in last meeting two years ago. Tulane won four of its last five games overall; they’re 1-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, after being 7-4 last two years. UL-Lafayette is in 6th bowl in last nine years, but first one that wasn’t in New Orleans; Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Tulane allowed 31+ in only one of its last six games. Dogs won two of three Cure Bowls, with Sun Belt team winning last two. Last five years, Sun Belt teams are 9-7 vs spread when playing an AAC team. Five of last six Tulane games, four of last five ULL games stayed under total. 

Las Vegas Bowl
Fresno State won Mountain West title game in Boise Dec 1st; only 14 days between games for them. Underdogs won last two Las Vegas bowls; favorites are 4-3 vs spread in last seven. Pac-12 teams are 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here. Herm Edwards is coaching his first bowl game; ASU’s star WR Harry is skipping this game so he doesn’t get hurt- he is headed to NFL. ASU won four of its last five games; they’re 4-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. Sun Devils are 2-3 in last five bowls, losing 43-42/52-31 in last two. Bulldogs snapped 4-game bowl losing streak when they won Hawai’i Bowl 33-27 LY. Since 2012, Mountain West teams are 4-6 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team. Eight of last nine Fresno games stayed under the total. 

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Eastern Michigan is in just its third bowl game ever, 2nd since 1985; they lost Bahamas Bowl 24-20 to Old Dominion two years ago. Eagles won five of their last six games after a 2-4 start; they’re 2-4 this year in games decided by less than 7 points. EMU is 4-6 vs spread in its last 10 games as a favorite. Georgia Southern has one of most experienced OL’s in country; they’re in only their 5th year of I-A football. GSU is Eagles pounded Bowling Green 58-27 in its only bowl game, three years ago. MAC teams are 14-11 vs spread in their last 25 games vs Sun Belt opponents. Sun Belt teams split four Camellia Bowls; average total in four games was 61.3. Seven of last nine EMU games stayed under total; five of last six Ga Southern games went over. 

New Orleans Bowl
Favorites won/covered last three New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game five of last seven years. Appalachian State is 10-2 with an OT loss at Penn State that they led in the last minute of regulation. ASU is 3-0 in bowl games, scoring 31+ points in all three- this is only their 5th year as a I-A team. Middle Tennessee State won five of last seven games, splitting pair with UAB; they’re 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Sun Belt teams covered eight of their last ten games with C-USA opponents. Six of last eight ASU games stayed under the total; three of Blue Raiders’ last four games went over. ASU’s coach has already jumped ship for the Louisville job; MTSU’s senior QB is the head coach’s son, so this will be an emotional game for them.

Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL

UAB didn’t field a football team in 2015-16; they went 8-5 LY, lost their bowl game 41-6, then went 10-3 this year, winning C-USA title Dec 1. All three Blazer losses are by 21+ points. Northern Illinois is 8-5 after winning MAC title 30-29 over Buffalo Nov 30; Huskies lost their last five bowls, last three by 22+ points each. NIU is 7-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; in their last four games (2-2) they were -7 in turnovers. Huskies have a top 10 OL in experience. Favorites covered three of first four Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 64.8; C-USA teams are 3-0 in this game. Last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing MAC teams. Under is 9-4 in NIU games this season; four of last five UAB games went over. 

Dec 19
Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
San Diego State lost its last three games after a 7-2 start, which is how they wound up here- they lost SU as 18 and 24-point home favorites in November. Aztecs covered five of their last six tries as an underdog. Ohio U won five of its last six games, scoring 52-49 points in last two; Bobcats are 11-6 vs spread in their last 17 games as a favorite. Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 16-13 vs spread when playing a MAC team, 6-6 when an underdog. San Diego St is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34+ points in last three. Ohio won its bowl 41-6 LY, snapping a 3-bowl losing skid. Under is 6-3 in Aztecs’ last nine games, 1-4 in Ohio’s last five. Favorites covered three of four Frisco Bowls, with an average total of 77.3.

Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa

Home game for South Florida, which lost its last five games (all by 10+ points) after a 7-0 start; Bulls threw for a combined 195 yards in last two games- they allowed 220+ RY in six of their last seven games. Under Strong, USF is 5-11 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 this year. Bulls won four of last five bowls, with average total of 79 in last three. Marshall won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Thundering Herd won its last six bowl games. Marshall has a big edge in experience on OL. Favorites covered this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 30.0 last three years. AAC teams are 14-13 vs spread when facing a C-USA squad, 1-4 this year. Three of last four USF games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Marshall games. 

Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl

C-USA/MAC teams split the four Bahamas Bowls, with an average total of 66; FIU is 1-2 in bowl games, losing 28-3 to Temple LY- coach Davis is 5-3 in bowls. Panthers split their last four games after a 6-2 start; under Davis, they’re 6-3 vs spread as underdogs, 3-0 this year. FIU was outgained by 238+ yards in three of their last four losses. Toledo lost its last two bowls, getting blanked 34-0 by Appalachian St LY as a 7-point favorite. Rockets won four of their last five games after a 3-4 start, scoring 56-51 points in last two games; Toledo allowed 412+ TY in 10 of their last 11 games- they’re 2-5 vs spread in their last seven games as a single-digit favorite. Last five FIU games went over the total; over is 7-4 in Toledo games. 

Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
BYU won at Arizona/Wisconsin in September, but lost three of last five games, and stumbles in here with 6-6 record. Cougars didn’t go to a bowl LY, and lost three of their last four bowls before that- they did hold last six opponents to 327 or fewer TY. Western Michigan has 1-7 record in bowl games, with only win over MTSU in the Bahamas three years ago. Broncos lost three of their last four games after a 6-2 start; they allowed 42+ points in all five of their losses, are 7-0 when they give up less than 40 points. WMU lost two games that they scored 42+ points in this season. BYU is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a double digit favorite. Underdogs won three of last four Potato Bowls, with average total of 66.2 in last six. Four of last five BYU games stayed under total; last four WMU games went over. 

Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl

Wake Forest is in its 3rd straight bowl, winning 34-26/55-52 in previous two; Memphis is in its 5th straight bowl, losing last three while allowing 34.3 ppg. Wake scored 50+ points in four of its six wins- they’re 1-4 scoring less than 27 points. Deacons are 11-4-1 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog, 1-2 this year. Memphis won four of its last five games after a 4-4 start; they ran ball for 400+ yards in last two games, 200+ yards in last eight games. Wake held five of last six opponents under 200 rushing yards. Tigers are 11-5 in last 16 games as a favorite, 6-1 this year. Last four years, AAC teams are 17-11 vs spread when playing an ACC opponent. Three of last four Wake games stayed under total; five of last six Memphis games went over. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in this bowl last six years, with average total of 62.2 in last five. 

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
Houston QB King is out for this game. Service academies are 2-3 in this game the last six years; average total in last four is 82.5. Army won its last eight games after losing in OT at Oklahoma Sept 28; they outgained Sooners 379-355, running ball for 339 yards. Cadets did get held under 300 TY in three of last four games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five games as a favorite. Houston lost three of last four games after a 7-1 start; they gave up 45 points in all four losses this year. Star DE Oliver left team to prep for NFL Draft, which leaves a void. Navy ran for 344 yards vs Cougars, which is a red flag. Houston is in its 6th straight bowl; they lost 34-10/33-27 in last two; they won this bowl in 2014. Army is in 3rd straight bowl, winning 38-31ot/42-35 in last two- they won this bowl LY. Three of last four Army games stayed under total; five of last six Houston games went over.  

Dollar General Bowl, Mobile, AL
Sun Belt team beat the MAC team in this bowl four of last five years (underdogs 3-2 vs spread) with average total of 64. Troy won this game two years ago. Buffalo is in its third bowl, its first since 2013; Bulls lost 38-20/49-24 in first two bowls. Bulls’ coach Leipold won six national titles in D-III, this is his first D-I bowl. Troy is in its 3rd straight bowl, winning last two 28-23/50-30- their last two bowl losses were both in OT. Troy is 9-3, but scored 12-10 points in last two games; under Brown, Trojans are 9-3-1 as underdogs, 1-1-1 this year. Buffalo is 10-3, losing MAC title game 30-29; Bulls are 5-3 vs spread this year in games with single digit spread- they’re 1-3 this season when scoring less than 30 points. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; three of last four Troy games stayed under. 

Hawai’i Bowl
Louisiana Tech is in its fifth straight bowl, winning the last four while scoring 45.3 ppg; Hawai’i is in its second bowl since 2010; Rainbows (+7) beat MTSU 52-35 in this game two years ago. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in this bowl last seven years, winning last two SU. Average total in this bowl last three years is 65.3. Louisiana Tech lost three of its last four games after a 6-2 start; Tech is 4-3 SU on road this year, with two losses to SEC teams; they’re 14-4 in lat 18 games as road underdogs, 4-1 this year. Hawai’i is 4-2 at home vs I-A teams this year; Rainbows are 7-0 when they score 30+ points, 1-5 when they don’t. These teams last played in 2011; Hawai’i won last two meetings. Since ’12, Mountain West teams are 13-11 vs spread when playing C-USA teams. Tech’s last five games stayed under the total. 

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College football
2017-18 bowl records
AAC: 4-3SU, 3-3F, 1-0U, 4-3 vs spread
ACC: 4-6SU, 3-2F, 0-4U, 3-7 vs spread
Big 14: 7-1SU, 5-2F, 1-0U, 6-2 vs spread
Big X: 5-3SU, 2-1F, 2-3U, 4-4 vs spread
C-USA: 4-5SU, 1-1F, 3-4U, 4-5 vs spread
MAC: 1-4SU, 1-1F, 0-3U, 1-4 vs spread
MW: 3-3SU, 1-3F, 2-0U, 3-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 1-8SU, 1-2F, 1-5U, 2-7 vs spread
SEC: 4-5SU, 2-3F, 4-0U, 6-3 vs spread
Sun Belt: 4-1SU, 1-1F, 3-0U, 4-1 vs spread


2016-17 bowl records
AAC: 2-4SU, 1-4F, 0-1U, 1-5 vs spread
ACC: 8-3SU, 4-1F, 5-1U, 9-2 vs spread
Big 14: 3-7SU, 0-3-1F, 4-2U, 4-5-1 vs spread
Big X: 4-2SU, 1-1F, 3-1U, 4-2 vs spread
C-USA: 4-2SU, 2-3F, 1-0U, 3-3 vs spread
MAC: 0-6SU, 3-2-1U, 3-2-1 vs spread
MW: 4-3SU, 1-3F, 3-0U, 4-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 3-3SU, 0-5F, 0-1U, 0-6 vs spread
SEC: 6-6SU, 4-2F, 2-4U, 6-6 vs spread
Sun Belt: 3-4SU, 1-1F, 3-2U, 4-3 vs spread

2015-16 bowl results

Conference
SU
F
U
pts
O/U
ACC
4-7
0-3
4-3
4-6
7-2-1
American
2-6
1-1
2-4
3-5
4-4
Big 14
5-5
3-1
2-4
5-5
6-4
Big X
2-4
0-2
1-3
1-5
5-1
Conference USA
3-2
3-0
0-2
3-2
4-1
MAC
3-4
1-1
3-2
4-3
4-3
Mountain West
4-4
3-2
2-1
5-3
3-5
Pac-12
6-4
5-4
1-0
6-4
8-2
SEC
9-2
8-2
0-1
8-3
7-3-1
Sun Belt
2-2
0-1
1-2
1-3
3-1