College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis

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2018-19 bowls
December 31
Military Bowl, Annapolis

Virginia Tech (+2.5) beat Cincinnati 33-17 in this bowl four years ago, but both teams have new coaches since then; underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Military Bowls that didn’t involve host school Navy. Average total in this bowl last five years is 59.8. Cincinnati won four of last five games, are 2-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Virginia Tech won its last two games, scoring 34-41 points, after losing their previous four games. Hokies won three of last four bowls; Cincy is in its first bowl since ’15- they lost last three bowls, by 22-16-35 yards.

Sun Bowl, El Paso
Favorites covered four of last five Sun Bowls, with average total of 57.2 in those games. Stanford won this game two years ago, beating North Carolina 25-23. Cardinal won last three games after a 5-4 start; they’re 5-3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Seven of last nine Stanford games went over total; four of last five Pitt games stayed under. Panthers lost last two games, 24-3/42-10; they’re 5-4 as an underdog. Cardinal won three of last four bowls, with last two both decided by two points. Pittsburgh lost their last three bowls, giving up 36.7 ppg.  

Red Box Bowl, Santa Clara
Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years; average total last five years is 60.4. Michigan State lost two of last three games, scoring only 6-6-14 points; Spartans’ last seven games stayed under total- they completed less than half their passes in last three games. Oregon is 8-1 when it scores 30+ points, 0-3 when it doesn’t; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Ducks are 2-5 this season in games with a single digit spread. MSU won four of last five bowls, beating two Pac-12 teams; Ducks lost last three bowls, giving up 42.3 ppg. 

Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years, with average total, 59.2. SEC teams won this game four of last five years. Missouri won its last four games, scoring 39.8 ppg; Tigers have senior QB- they’re 0-3 when scoring less than 30 points. Oklahoma State lost five of last seven games after a 4-1 start; they allowed 31+ points in last seven games. Four of last five Mizzou games stayed under. Missouri won three of last four bowls, none of which were decided by fewer than 10 points; OSU won three of last four bowls; they were underdog in three of those games. 

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
Utah coach Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games; Utah scored 33.2 ppg in winning last five bowls. Northwestern is 4-10 all-time in bowls but 3-1 in last four, winning 31-24/24-23 last two years; Underdogs covered this game five of last six games; Big 14 teams won this game last three years.  Northwestern won seven of last nine games after a 1-3 start; Wildcats are 6-2 vs spread as an underdog- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Utah won seven of last nine games after a 2-2 start; Utes are 8-0 this season when they score more than 24 points. 

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Favorites covered three of last four Gator Bowls, with SEC teams winning three of those games. Average total in last five Gator Bowls is 53.2. NC State won last three games, scoring 52-34-58 points; Wolfpack is 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Texas A&M won its last three games, winning last game in seven OT’s; Aggies are 2-3 in games with single digit spread. State won three of last four bowls, winning last two years, 41-17/52-31. A&M lost last three bowls, by 6-5-3 points; average totals in Aggies’ last five bowls is 79.6. State (+11) upset Jimbo Fisher’s Florida St squad 27-21 in Tallahassee LY. 

January 1
Outback Bowl, Tampa
Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in this bowl the last seven years; average total in last five is 45.8. SEC teams won this bowl five of last six years, all vs Big 14 teams. Iowa lost 21-14/30-3 in this bowl in ’13/’17, both to SEC teams; Hawkeyes snapped 5-game bowl skid with win in Pinstripe Bowl LY. Mississippi State won last three bowls, but that was with Mullen as coach- this is Moorhead’s first bowl as a HC. Iowa won its last two games after a 3-game skid, running ball for 203-266 yards vs Illinois/Nebraska- they’re +9 in turnovers their last eight games. Miss State won four of its last five games, allowing 13 or fewer points in all four wins- they held five of last six opponents under 300 TY. SEC teams covered six of last eight bowls when favored over a Big 14 opponent. Over is 8-2 in last 10 Iowa games; under is 8-1 in MSU’s last nine. 

Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years, with average total in last five, 46.4. SEC teams won this bowl five of last seven years. Big 14 teams are 1-4 in last five Citrus Bowls. Kentucky scored 34-56 points in winning its last two games (both outside SEC), after being held to 17 or fewer points in last five SEC games. Wildcats are 3-2 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-3 in games with single digit spread. Kentucky is 7-0 this season when they score more than 17 points. PSU won its last three games, allowing total of 20 points; they’re 6-4 vs spread as a favorite. Kentucky lost its last four bowls, scoring 16 ppg; their last bowl win was in ’08. Penn State is 2-3 in its last five bowls, all as underdogs- last time they were favored in a bowl was in ’09. Three of last four Kentucky games went over; under is 6-2 in last eight Penn State games. 

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Central Florida was 0-12 three years ago, but they’re 25-0 last two years, under two different coaches; Golden Knights are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as underdogs, 0-0 this year; they were only single digit favorite three times this year, so they’re stepping up in class here. UCF is 3-2 in last five bowls, winning SU twice as double digit underdogs. UCF’s QB is out here with knee injury- the backup has thrown 70 passes TY. LSU is 3-2 in last five bowls (2-3 vs spread, all as favorites); Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games, losing last game in 7 OT’s to A&M. LSU is 4-1 this year in games with single digit spread. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven Fiesta Bowls; UCF won this game as 16-point underdogs five years ago. Average total in last five Fiesta Bowls is 65.6. Six of last nine LSU games went over the total. 

Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Rose Bowls; Pac-12 teams won five of last six visits here, with average total of 77.4 in last five. Winning side scored 45+ points in last four Rose Bowls. Big 14 teams lost four of their last five Rose Bowls. Washington won its last four games, giving up 16 ppg; under Petersen, Huskies are 5-6 vs spread as underdogs, 1-1 this year. Ohio State won its last five games, but allowed 31+ points in three of those games; Buckeyes are 2-1 in games with single digit spread this year. Washington was last in Rose Bowl in 2000; Huskies lost three of last four bowls, losing 24-7/35-28 last two years- they covered four of last six games as a bowl underdog. This is Ohio State’s first Rose Bowl since ’09, when they upset Oregon 26-17 (+4); Buckeyes won four of last five bowls. Under is 9-3 in Husky games, 0-3 in last three OSU games. 

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Georgia (rightfully) thinks they should’ve been in national playoff, how do they react here? Dawgs won five of last six games, losing 35-28 to Alabama in SEC title game. Favorites won/covered last three Sugar Bowls; SEC teams lost this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 51 in last five. As a HC, Texas coach Herman is 8-2-1 vs spread when an underdog. 2-1-1 this year. Longhorns split their last six games after 5-1 start- they scored an average of 33 ppg in their four losses. Texas is 8-3 in its last 11 bowls; they upset Mizzou 33-16 (+3) LY, their first bowl in three years. Georgia lost national title game LY, just their second bowl loss in last seven tries. Dawgs are 4-3 vs spread as double digit favorites this year. Last three Georgia games stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in Georgia’s last five games. 

January 7
National title game, Santa Clara, CA

— Underdogs covered last five national title games.
— Alabama (2-1) is in its 4th straight national title game; Clemson (1-1) its third in four years.
— Crimson Tide is 2-1 vs Clemson last three years in bowls.
— Since 2012, Tigers are 4-3 as an underdog; last time they were an underdog was national title game vs Alabama, two years ago.
— Since 2012, Alabama is 8-12 as a single digit favorite (0-0 this year).
— Average total in last five national title game is 65.4.
— Both teams were favored by 10+ points in every game this season.
— Four of last five Clemson games stayed under; over is 8-5-1 in Alabama games. 

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College football
2017-18 bowl records
AAC: 4-3SU, 3-3F, 1-0U, 4-3 vs spread
ACC: 4-6SU, 3-2F, 0-4U, 3-7 vs spread
Big 14: 7-1SU, 5-2F, 1-0U, 6-2 vs spread
Big X: 5-3SU, 2-1F, 2-3U, 4-4 vs spread
C-USA: 4-5SU, 1-1F, 3-4U, 4-5 vs spread
MAC: 1-4SU, 1-1F, 0-3U, 1-4 vs spread
MW: 3-3SU, 1-3F, 2-0U, 3-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 1-8SU, 1-2F, 1-5U, 2-7 vs spread
SEC: 4-5SU, 2-3F, 4-0U, 6-3 vs spread
Sun Belt: 4-1SU, 1-1F, 3-0U, 4-1 vs spread


2016-17 bowl records
AAC: 2-4SU, 1-4F, 0-1U, 1-5 vs spread
ACC: 8-3SU, 4-1F, 5-1U, 9-2 vs spread
Big 14: 3-7SU, 0-3-1F, 4-2U, 4-5-1 vs spread
Big X: 4-2SU, 1-1F, 3-1U, 4-2 vs spread
C-USA: 4-2SU, 2-3F, 1-0U, 3-3 vs spread
MAC: 0-6SU, 3-2-1U, 3-2-1 vs spread
MW: 4-3SU, 1-3F, 3-0U, 4-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 3-3SU, 0-5F, 0-1U, 0-6 vs spread
SEC: 6-6SU, 4-2F, 2-4U, 6-6 vs spread
Sun Belt: 3-4SU, 1-1F, 3-2U, 4-3 vs spread

2015-16 bowl results

Conference
SU
F
U
pts
O/U
ACC
4-7
0-3
4-3
4-6
7-2-1
American
2-6
1-1
2-4
3-5
4-4
Big 14
5-5
3-1
2-4
5-5
6-4
Big X
2-4
0-2
1-3
1-5
5-1
Conference USA
3-2
3-0
0-2
3-2
4-1
MAC
3-4
1-1
3-2
4-3
4-3
Mountain West
4-4
3-2
2-1
5-3
3-5
Pac-12
6-4
5-4
1-0
6-4
8-2
SEC
9-2
8-2
0-1
8-3
7-3-1
Sun Belt
2-2
0-1
1-2
1-3
3-1