College Football

football

Every game analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game Selections are posted in box below game analysis


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College football

Thursday’s games
South Florida ran ball for 376 yards in 47-23 home rout of Illinois last week; Bulls are 3-0, with I-A wins by 20-24 points. USF gave up 319 rushing yards in a 46-30 loss at Temple LY. Home favorites are 3-0 vs spread in series games. Owls lost 44-23 in their visit here in 2015. Temple is 2-1 after nipping Mass 29-21 LW; they lost only road game 49-16 at Notre Dame, giving up 422 rushing yards. Temple was 12-4 vs spread as a road underdog under Rhule, but he and most of his players have moved on. USF is 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite.

Friday’s games
Boise State (-2) came east and crushed Virginia 56-14 two years ago, outgaining Cavaliers 358-273. Since 2008, Broncos are 33-15 as road favorites; they’re 11-6 under Harsin, but lost their only road game this year, in OT at Washington State, blowing big second half lead. Virginia split its first two I-A games, both at home, vs Indiana/UConn. Cavaliers threw for 455 yards LW- they allowed 207 rushing yards to UConn. Since 2009, Virginia is 20-16 as a road underdog. ACC teams are 12-10 vs spread out of conference (5-4 on road); Mountain West teams are also 12-10.

Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in last ten Utah-Arizona games; Utes lost 37-30/35-24 in last two visits to Tucson. Utah ran ball for 200+ yards in last three series games- Arizona gained 450+ yards in last six series games. Wildcats are 7-5 as a home underdog under RichRod, 3-5 since 2015. Utah is 3-0 this season, winning its only road game 19-13 at rival BYU; since 2013, Utes are 5-3 as road favorites. Utah has 314-341 passing yards in its last two games. Arizona lost its only I-A home game this season, 19-16 to Houston (+1.5).

Saturday’s top 13 games

Michigan-Purdue are meeting for first time in five years; Wolverines won last three meetings by 11-22-31 points. Favorites covered six of last eight series games. Michigan has only one TD in 20 red zone drives this year, a red flag. Purdue is improved under new coach Brohm (30-10 @ WKU), whacking Ohio/Mizzou after 35-28 loss to Louisville. Last 5+ years, Purdue is just 5-18 as a home underdog- no bueno. Wolverines are off to a 3-0 start, allowing 14.7 pts/game, holding all three opponents under 300 TY. Michigan is 3-4 as a road favorite under Harbaugh.

Pitt lost 33-14 to Penn State, 59-21 to Oklahoma State last two weeks, now they face option attack of Georgia Tech, very tough schedule- they trailed 49-14 at the half LW. Tech meanwhile had game PPD LW, played I-AA team week before, so they’re raring to go. Since 2011, Jackets are 18-13-1 as a home favorite. Underdogs covered last three Pitt-Ga Tech games; Panthers won last two by FG each. Tech ran for only 241 yards vs Pitt, after racking up 376-465 yards in previous two meetings. Pitt covered seven of last ten tries as a road underdog.

First road game for Penn State squad that crushed first three opponents by combined score of 141-14- they threw for 300+ yards in two of those games. PSU is 3-4 as a road favorite under Franklin. Nittany Lions won last three games with Iowa by 31-24-10 points; their 38-14 (+2.5) win at Iowa in ’12 (last visit here) was their only win in last five visits to Kinnick Stadium. Iowa is off to 3-1 start, but 44-41 OT win at rival Iowa St is red flag; Cyclones threw for 347 yards that day. Over last decade, Hawkeyes are 7-3-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Florida State hasn’t played in three weeks due to bye/hurricane; backup QB Blackman makes his first start here after soph star QB Francois was lost for year in Alabama game. Impossible to tell how FSU’s offense will change as a result. Seminoles are 8-11 in last 19 games as a home favorite. NCState threw for 756 yards in splitting pair vs So Carolina/Marshall; this is first true road game for Wolfpack, who lost last five visits to Doak Campbell Stadium (0-2-1 vs spread in last three). NCState is 5-6-1 as a road underdog under Doeren.

Georgia-Mississippi State meet for first time in six years; Bulldogs won four of last five meetings (favorites 3-2 vs spread); they lost 24-17 in last visit here, six years ago. Dawgs beat couple of stiffs but also won 20-19 at Notre Dame in between; Georgia QB Eason is out, but Fromm has proved an adequate replacement; last 5+ years, Dawgs are 12-19 as a home favorite. MSU crushed LSU 37-7 LW, a stunning score; last 4+ years, Bulldogs are 9-3 as a road underdog. MSU rang up 924 yards, 94 points the last two weeks, in wins over La Tech/LSU.

Florida is off emotional win over Tennessee when they completed 63-yard bomb on last play to beat Vols, avoid OT- Gators were without nine suspended players LW. Florida won its last 30 games with Kentucky, covering nine of last ten; Gators are 15-6-1 vs spread in its last 22 SEC games, Kentucky is 3-11-2 in last 16 tries as a home underdog. Wildcats are 3-0 with wins at So Miss, South Carolina; they were outgained in both of those games. Kentucky has 17 returning starters with a senior QB; they’re 0-5 vs spread in Gators’ last five visits to Lexington.

Washington won/covered its last five games with Colorado, winning the games by an average of 15 points; Huskies won first two I-A games this year by 16-32 points- they could’ve beaten Fresno St worse than they did LW. Washington is 6-4 as a road favorite under Petersen- their junior QB Browning has started 29 college games. Colorado is 3-0 but played two stiffs; since 2014, Buffs are 6-3 as a home underdog- they’re 14-8 in last 22 games as a dog, but they lost 8 of 11 starters off LY’s defense, so playing against a veteran QB could be dicey.

Underdogs covered five of last six Notre Dame-Michigan State games; Irish are 4-2 in last six trips to East Lansing. Notre Dame ran ball for 422/515 yards in wins over Temple/BC, only 55 in loss to Georgia- they’ll try to bully youthful Spartans (14 new starters), who beat up on couple MAC teams to open season. State allowed 183 rushing yards in its two wins, but dimension of mobile QB Wimbush is something Spartans didn’t see in their MAC opponents. Since 2010, MSU is 4-0 as a home underdog. Notre Dame is 5-10 as a road favorite under Kelly.

Oklahoma State won four of last five games with TCU, winning 31-26/49-9 in last two meetings; Cowboys ran for 334 yards in LY’s easy 31-6 win. OSU has scored 54 pts/game in their 3-0 start, with wins by 35-37-38 points- they had 49 points at halftime in LW’s easy win at Pitt. TCU is 3-0 but allowed 339 PY in 56-36 win over local rival SMU LW. Horned Frogs won their first road game 28-7 at Arkansas. Since 2001, TCU is 12-3-1 as a road underdog; they’ve got 17 starters back this year, 10 on offense. Since 2008, OSU 31-16-1 as a home favorite.

San Diego State beat Pac-12’s Arizona State/Stanford last two weeks, now they head east to face Air Force squad they’ve beaten six times in a row (5-1 vs spread). Aztecs won 27-20/41-27 in last two visits here. State won its first road game 30-20 at ASU; since 2012 they’re 9-6 as a road favorite. Air Force gave Michigan a hard time LW, losing 29-13 in Ann Arbor in game where TY was 359-232 Wolverines- AF completed only one pass!!! Falcons have only one starter back on defense this year- last 3+ years, Air Force is 5-0 vs spread when getting points at home.

Texas A&M won its last five games with Arkansas; 3 of the 5 wins were by 12+ points. Aggies ran ball for 366 yards in 45-24 (-6.5) win over the Hogs, Arkansas completed only 9-23 passes in 28-7 home loss to TCU in last two game two weeks ago; Hogs are 12-6 vs spread in last 18 games as an underdog. A&M coaches have been under fire since blowing 44-10 lead in hideous loss to UCLA in season opener. Aggies are 10-19-2 vs spread in last 31 games as a favorite. This game is in traditional JerryWorld site (Jerry Jones went to Arkansas).

First road game for USC squad coming off home wins over Stanford/Texas (in OT) last two weeks- tough schedule. Trojans passed for 713 yards in last two games but ran for only 71 yards vs Texas LW. USC won last 13 games with Cal (10-2 vs spread in last 12) but they have national TV game at Wash State next week- this could be a trap game. Golden Bears are 3-0 with upset wins of UNC/Ole Miss- new coach Wilcox is turning things around quickly, but Cal also gave up 431 PY to I-AA Weber State two weeks ago. Last 10+ years, Cal is 7-16 as a home dog.

UCLA’s 48-45 loss at Memphis LW reminds us they were down 44-10 at home to Texas A&M in opener, before miracle rally bailed them out. Bruins lost their last nine games vs Stanford (1-8 vs spread)- they’re 7-5 as a road underdog under Mora. UCLA lost its last five visits to the Farm, with four losses by 8+ points. Stanford ran ball for 240 yds/game in last three games vs UCLA. Cardinal lost last two games, at USC/at San Diego State following Australia trip; Stanford covered once in last six tries as a home favorite.


 


Football picks
Picks are posted on Friday night

2017 college record: 1-0-1, plus 30 pattersons


2016-17 bowl records
AAC: 2-4SU, 1-4F, 0-1U, 1-5 vs spread
ACC: 8-3SU, 4-1F, 5-1U, 9-2 vs spread
Big 14: 3-7SU, 0-3-1F, 4-2U, 4-5-1 vs spread
Big X: 4-2SU, 1-1F, 3-1U, 4-2 vs spread
C-USA: 4-2SU, 2-3F, 1-0U, 3-3 vs spread
MAC: 0-6SU, 3-2-1U, 3-2-1 vs spread
MW: 4-3SU, 1-3F, 3-0U, 4-3 vs spread
Pac-12: 3-3SU, 0-5F, 0-1U, 0-6 vs spread
SEC: 6-6SU, 4-2F, 2-4U, 6-6 vs spread
Sun Belt: 3-4SU, 1-1F, 3-2U, 4-3 vs spread

2015-16 bowl results

Conference
SU
F
U
pts
O/U
ACC
4-7
0-3
4-3
4-6
7-2-1
American
2-6
1-1
2-4
3-5
4-4
Big 14
5-5
3-1
2-4
5-5
6-4
Big X
2-4
0-2
1-3
1-5
5-1
Conference USA
3-2
3-0
0-2
3-2
4-1
MAC
3-4
1-1
3-2
4-3
4-3
Mountain West
4-4
3-2
2-1
5-3
3-5
Pac-12
6-4
5-4
1-0
6-4
8-2
SEC
9-2
8-2
0-1
8-3
7-3-1
Sun Belt
2-2
0-1
1-2
1-3
3-1