Saturday’s Den: Looking at college QB transfers, and some other stuff

— There is a hurricane headed towards southern California Sunday/Monday, so MLB has moved three of Sunday’s games, and turned them into day/night doubleheaders on Saturday.

Marlins-Dodgers, Arizona-Padres and Rays-Angels are the series affected by the changes.

— By my count, there are 68 college football teams in the Power 5 conferences. Of those 68 teams, 36 of them are slated to start a QB this season who began his college career somewhere else, then transferred to that school (not counting junior college transfers).

Information is courtesy of the Phil Steele college football magazine, an excellent resource:

SEC
Alabama— Buchner, 3 starts at Notre Dame
Auburn— Thorne, 25 starts at Michigan State
Florida— Mertz, 32 starts at Wisconsin
Kentucky— Leary, 26 starts at NC State.
LSU— Daniels, 29 starts at Arizona State
Ole Miss— Dart, 6 games at USC
South Carolina— Rattler, 17 starts at Oklahoma
Tennessee— Milton, 16 games at Michigan.

Big 14
Illinois— Altmyer, one start at Ole Miss
Indiana— Jackson, 3 games at Tennessee
Iowa— McNamara, 16 starts at Michigan
Nebraska— Sims, 23 starts at Georgia Tech
Northwestern— Bryant, 11 starts at Cincinnati
Purdue— Card, 5 starts at Texas
Wisconsin— Mordecai, 24 starts at SMU

ACC
Georgia Tech— King, 7 starts at Texas A&M
Louisville— Plummer, 12 starts at Cal
NC State— Armstrong, 30 starts at Virginia
Pitt— Jurkovec, 24 starts at Boston College
Virginia— Muskett, 23 starts at I-AA Monmouth
Virginia Tech— Drones, 5 games at Baylor

Big X
BYU— Slovis, 38 starts at USC/Pitt.
UCF— Plumlee, 9 starts at Ole Miss
Cincinnati— Jones, 7 starts at Arizona State
Houston— Smith, 8 starts at Texas Tech
Oklahoma— Gabriel, 26 starts at UCF
Oklahoma State— Bowman, 26 games at Texas Tech/Michigan
Texas Tech— Shough, 7 starts at Oregon.

Pac-12
Arizona— DeLaura, 15 starts at Washington State
Arizona State— Pyne, 10 starts at Notre Dame
California— Jackson, 7 games at TCU
Oregon— Nix, 34 starts at Auburn
Oregon State— Uiagalelei, 28 starts at Clemson
USC— Williams, 7 starts at Oklahoma
Washington— Penix, 17 starts at Indiana.

— Movie of the Day— The Natural (1984)— An unknown ballplayer in his 30’s comes seemingly out of nowhere to become a big-time major leaguer.

Robert Redford plays Roy Hobbs, Wilford Brimley is manager of the New York Knights, Robert Duvall is a sportswriter trying to uncover Hobbs’ past. Kim Basinger, Darren McGavin, Barbara Hershey, Glenn Close are also in the movie— excellent cast.

Baseball scenes were filmed at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo, where the Bills played before they built Rich Stadium in Orchard Park. 

— NFL Trend of the Day— Last three years, over is 16-6-1 in Raiders’ home games.

— White Sox SS Tim Anderson got into a fight with Cleveland on August 5; MLB suspended him for six games, but he didn’t start serving the suspension until Friday night. Why wait so long? Appeals should be the next morning, via Zoom.

— San Diego Padres this season:
6-19 in one-run games.
13-15 in two-run games.
39-30 in games decided by 3+ runs.

— Washington Commanders named Sam Howell their starting QB for Week 1 against Arizona; Howell started the last game last season, his rookie year— he started for three years in college at North Carolina.

Last seven years, Washington will now have started seven different QB’s in Week 1.

— Indiana Hoosiers basketball coach Mike Woodson got a $1M raise; he will now make $4.2M a year, ranking him behind Tom Izzo/Brad Underwood amongst Big 14 coaches. 

— Rays 9, Angels 6 (10)
Angels led 5-1 after three innings.
Rays had runners on 1st/3rd, no one out in top of 9th, in a 6-6 game, but then hit into a weird triple play and didn’t score.
Raley got the game-winning hit; he struck out his first four times before that.

— Nationals 8, Phillies 7
Lorenzen no-hit Washington last week; he gave up 7 runs in 3.1 IP in this game.

— Braves 4, Giants 0— Atlanta hasn’t given up a run since the 9th inning Monday night.

— Padres 4, Arizona 0— Game was scoreless until San Diego scored four runs in bottom of the 8th; Kim got the go-ahead hit, then Machado added a 2-run tater.

— Marlins 11, Dodgers 3— Sandy Alcantara ends the Dodgers’ 11-game win streak.

— Seattle 2, Astros 0— Mariners win despite going 0-17 with runners in scoring position; they got solo homers from Rodriguez, Ford.

— Reds 1, Toronto 0— Rookie Christian Encarnacion-Strand homered in the 9th inning; not many games with a total of 10.5 end 1-0. 

Thursday’s Den: Mountain West football knowledge………

Air Force
— Last four years, Air Force is 34-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has to replace a 3-year starter.
— Air Force has been favored in 34 of its last 45 games.
— In his career, Calhoun is 35-26-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.

Boise State
— Last nine years, Boise State is 86-28 SU.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Last four years, Boise is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 26-14-1 ATS in conference games.
— Last three years, Boise is 7-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 2-1 SU in bowls, also had 2 bowls cancelled.

Colorado State
— Last five years, Colorado State is 14-38 SU.
— During those five years, Rams are minus-30 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 46 starts back on offensive line, but only one starter is back.
— soph QB Millen has 10 career starts
— Since 2017, Colorado State is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State.

Fresno State
— Last six years, Bulldogs are 49-24 SU.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at Central Florida.
— Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Tedford is 42-31 ATS as a home favorite.
— Fresno won its last four bowl games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— Tedford was Aaron Rodgers’ college coach at Cal. 

Hawai’i
— last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts. 
— Since 2019, Rainbows are 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2014, Hawai’i is 7-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.

Nevada
— Nevada was 2-10 LY, after four straight winning seasons.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 38 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 12 games at Colorado.
— Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 11-17 ATS outside the Mountain West.
— Since 2015, Nevada is 36-28 ATS inside the Mountain West.
— Since 2016, Nevada is 15-21 ATS coming off a win.
— Nevada is 3-2 SU in last five bowls, wasn’t favored in any of them.

— Movie of the Day— Shopgirl (2005)— Story about a love triangle between a bored salesgirl, a wealthy businessman and an aimless young man.

Steve Martin is the businessman; he wrote the novel this movie is based on. Claire Danes is the salesgirl, Bridgette Wilson-Sampras is one of her co-workers— she is married in real life to Pete Sampras, the tennis star.

This is a good movie, a nice movie, little sad at times; Steve Martin is a brilliant guy, this is another example of that. 

— NFL Trend of the Day— Since 2016, Jets are 17-29-2 ATS as a road underdog.

UNLV
— Last nine years, UNLV is 29-74 SU.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— soph QB has 12 career starts.
— New coach Odom is 17-11 ATS in home games, 6-13 ATS on road.
— Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.
— Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.

New Mexico
— Last six years, Lobos are 15-52 SU/19-47-1 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 25 games at UAB.
— Since 2015, New Mexico is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Lobos are 14-34 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two years, New Mexico was 2-13-1 ATS in Mountain West games.
— New Mexico hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016.

San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Last eight years, San Diego State is 16-10-1 ATS as road favorite.
— Since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)

San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i. 
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Brennan, San Jose is 17-13-1 ATS at home.
— Last five years, San Jose is 23-16 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.

Utah State
— Utah State is 17-10 SU in two years under Anderson.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; very inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 25-14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— In 2018, Aggies were +14 in turnovers; since then, they’re minus-17
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.

Wyoming
— Last three years, Cowboys are 16-16 SU/15-16-1 ATS
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Under Bohl, Wyoming is 30-21-1 ATS at home.
— Since 2016, Cowboys are 21-14 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2018, Wyoming is 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games. 

Friday’s Den: First take of our Week 1 NFL article

Week 1
Thursday
Lions
(0-0) @ Chiefs (0-0)
— Last two years, Detroit is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-21-1 SU, 23-10-1 ATS.
— Detroit is 5-16-1 SU in last 22 road openers.
— Last seven years, Lions are 4-3 ATS in road openers
— Last five years, Detroit is 12-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Goff is 56-48-1 as an NFL starter, 12-18-1 with the Lions.
— Over 7-1 in their last eight road openers
— Last time Goff played vs Chiefs, his Rams won 54-51 Monday night tilt.

— Last 20 years, Super Bowl champ is 11-6-3 ATS in Week 1 the following year.
— Last three years, KC is 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.  
— Last seven years, Chiefs scored 33+ points in all their Week 1 games.
— Kansas City is 7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 75-19 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in KC home games.

— Chiefs lead series, 9-5.
— This is Lions’ first visit to Arrowhead since 2003.
— Last time Lions beat KC was 2011, 48-3 in the Motor City. 

Sunday
Texans (0-0) @ Ravens (0-0)
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Last 3 years, Texans are 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— However, they’re 4-9-1 ATS as a road dog outside AFC South, 6-2 in division.
— Houston covered five of last six road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
— Mills is 5-19-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston road games.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.

— Last seven years, Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 1
— Last two years, Baltimore is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home openers
— Last three years, scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
— Lamar Jackson is 46-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last two years, Ravens are 18-16 SU, with a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.

— Ravens are 10-2 against Houston.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texans are 0-6 in Baltimore, losing last visit 41-7 in 2019. 

Bengals (0-0) @ Browns (0-0)
— QB Burrow hurt his calf in preseason; check status.
— Cincinnati lost its last four road openers.
— Bengals went to OT in Week 1 the last two years (1-1)
— Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last 2 years, Bengals were 22-11 SU, 22-9-2 ATS.
— Last 2 years, Cincy is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2 years, Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games. 

— Browns have had one winning season (2020) since 2007.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Cleveland scored 35-31-30 points in their home opener.
— Last year was first time since 2004 that Browns won in Week 1.
— Last nine years, Cleveland is 9-17-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts (3-0 LY)
— Over is 7-2 in Browns’ last seven home openers.
— Watson is 32-30 as an NFL starter, was 3-3 for Cleveland LY.

— Browns won five of last six games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last five visits to Cleveland. 

Buccaneers (0-0) @ Vikings (0-0)
— Despite being 8-9, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 6-13-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bucs are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Buccaneers were 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games LY.
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Last two years, under is 11-5 in Tampa Bay road games.
— Bucs’ new OC Dave Canales spent last 12 years in Seattle.

— Minnesota made playoffs LY, for first time since 2019.
— Vikings won/covered 7 of their last 8 home openers.
— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Vikings are 23-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.
— Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games.
— Cousins is 73-66-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Vikings’ new defensive coordinator is former Dolphins’ HC Brian Flores.

— Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Bucs lost last visit to Minnesota, 34-17 in 2017. 

Titans (0-0) @ Saints (0-0)
— Titans were 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2015.
— Tennessee lost its last seven games (1-5-1 ATS) last year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road openers.
— Last 3 years, Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tannehill is 80-68 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Since 2015, Titans are 19-14-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Titans are 7-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— New Orleans was 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2016.
— Saints are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans won last four years in Week 1, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Saints are 13-15 ATS as a home favorite
— Since 2018, NO is 18-11-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, under is 10-7 in Saints’ home games.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)

— Tennessee leads series, 9-6-1
— Road team won four of last five meetings.
— Titans won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.

Panthers (0-0) @ Falcons (0-0)
— New coach, rookie QB usually suggests a losing season.
— Panthers have had five straight losing seasons.
— Reich was 41-35-1 coaching the Colts (1-2 in playoffs)
— Carolina went 8-3 ATS in last 11 games LY, after they fired the coach.
— Last two years, Panthers were 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 5-4 ATS in last nine road openers.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Last four years, Panthers are 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Last 3 years, dogs were 19-2 ATS in Carolina games when spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Falcons have also had five straight losing seasons.
— Atlanta is 14-20 SU in two years under Arthur Smith.
— Seven of their last 10 games LY were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2004, Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in home openers.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Ridder was 2-2 as a starter last year, his rookie season.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.

— Teams split their season series (3-3) the last three years.
— Panthers won two of last three visits to Atlanta.

Jaguars (0-0) @ Colts (0-0)
— Jaguars made playoffs LY for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jags were first team EVER to win playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jacksonville was +6 in turnovers LY; they were minus-20 in 2021.
— Last five years, Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-12-2 ATS on artificial turf.
— Lawrence is 12-22 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Over last decade, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pederson is 56-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).

— This will be 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 games SU last year.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Indy is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— No idea which QB starts; Minshew has a 8-16 record as a starter.
— If rookie QB Richardson starts, rookie QB/new coach isn’t great.
— Last three years, under is 14-10 in Colts’ home games.
— Colts were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+14/+10 previous two years)

— Home side won last 11 series games.
— Jaguars lost their last five visits to Indy (1-2-2 ATS, all as underdogs)

49ers (0-0) @ Steelers (0-0)
— San Francisco won 12 of its last 13 games (10-3 ATS) LY.
— 49ers were +14 in turnovers last year (minus-15 in 2020-21)
— Last two years, SF were 23-11 in regular season, 4-2 in playoffs.
— Since 2016, 49ers are 11-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— SF is 3-4 SU/ATS in its last seven road openers.
— 49ers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— 49ers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 7-1 as NFL starter.

— Steelers went 9-8/9-7-1 the last two seasons.
— Pittsburgh won/covered six of its last seven games LY.
— Since 2018, Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Pitt is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Since 2015, Steelers are 20-15 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Steelers are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 7-5 as an NFL starter.

— Home team won last five series games.
— 49ers lost last two visits here; their last win in Pittsburgh was in 1996. 

Cardinals (0-0) @ Commanders (0-0)
— New GM, new coach, different QB for Arizona in Week 1.
— Cardinals lost seven in row, 11 of their last 13 games SU (4-6 ATS in last 10).
— Kyler Murray is still recovering from a knee injury; Colt McCoy is starter.
— 37-year old McCoy is 11-25 as an NFL starter (4-4 since 2020)
— Last five years, Cardinals are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Arizona was 1-13 SU last year when it scored less than 29 points.
— Cardinals won their last three road openers, covered last four.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.

— 2022 5th-round pick QB Howell gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Howell won his first NFL start 26-6 against the Cowboys.
— LY, Washington was 5-1 when it scored 23+ points, 3-7-1 if they didn’t.
— Last five years, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under was 10-3 in Washington’s last 13 games last year.
— Under is 17-6 in Commanders’ last 23 home games.
— Washington is 3-8 SU/ATS in last eleven home openers.

— Washington won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Cardinals lost last eight visits here; their last win in Washington was in 1998.

Raiders (0-0) @ Broncos (0-0)
— Last three years, Raiders are -7/-9/-11 in turnovers.
— Raiders blew five double digit leads in 2nd half last year.
— Garoppolo is 40-17 as an NFL starting QB.
— Garoppolo worked with coach McDaniels in New England.
— Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-4 ATS as an AFC West road dog.
— Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— Raiders were 3-8 SU LY in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.

— Sean Payton (152-89 as NFL HC) makes his Denver debut here.
— Denver lost 11 of its last 14 games last year.
— Last 8 years with the Saints, Payton was 20-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 7-15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Denver is 5-3-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Denver is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home openers.
— Last two years, under was 10-6 in Broncos’ home games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-71-1 as an NFL starter.

— Las Vegas won last six series games.
— Raiders won last three visits to Denver (won 22-16 in OT LY)

Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-0)
— Last 3 years, Miami was 10-6/9-8/9-8……0-1 in playoffs.
— Miami was 9-8 LY despite a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over was 7-2 in Miami road games last season.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 12-7 ATS on artificial turf.
— Last 2 years, Miami is 4-6 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Tagovailoa is 21-13 as an NFL starter.

— Chargers made playoffs LY, lost 31-30, blowing 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.
— Kellen Moore comes in from Dallas to be new OC.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-12-7 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Herbert is 25-25 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers started the last four seasons 1-0 SU.
— Chargers are 2-4 ATS in last six home openers.
— Bolts’ last three home openers stayed under the total.

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Dolphins won last three visits to San Diego/LA.

Eagles (0-0) @ Patriots (0-0)
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 25-13 SU.
— Last 3 years, Eagles are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five road openers.
— Hurts is 25-13 as an NFL starter.
— Philly is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.

— Since Brady left, NE is 25-25 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last three years, Patriots are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Mac Jones is 16-16 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots brought Bill O’Brien in to be Jones’ new QB guru.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS last ten games vs NFC opponents.
— New England is 4-8 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Last year was first time since 2002 NE was an underdog in its home opener.
— Under is 23-17-1 in New England’s last 41 home games.

— New England won five of last seven series games.
— Two of those games (1-1) were Super Bowls.
— Eagles are 2-3 in Foxboro; their last visit here was in 2015. 

Rams (0-0) @ Seahawks (0-0)
— Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
— Rams were 1-5-1 ATS as a road dog LY (7-3-1 from ’17-’21)
— Big ?? For Rams; did they improve their offensive line?
— Stafford is 93-104-1 as an NFL starter, 19-11 with the Rams.
— Rams are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 NFC West road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in season openers.
— Rams covered four of last five road openers.

— Since 2003, Seahawks are 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS in home openers.
— Last two years, Seattle is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Seahawks are 7-10-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Geno Smith is 22-29 as an NFL starter, 10-11 with Seattle.
— Under Carroll, Seattle is 41-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in Seahawks’ last dozen home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-10 in Seattle home games.
— Seattle was 16-19 last two years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.

— Rams are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but lost 27-23/19-16 LY.
— Rams won three of their last four visits to Seattle. 

Packers (0-0) @ Bears (0-0)
— Jordan Love lost his only NFL start 13-7 at Kansas City in 2021.
— Last four years, Packers are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— GB is 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 8-12 ATS in last 20 NFC North road games.
— Green Bay is 2-4 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last eight road openers.
— This is 5th year in a row that Green Bay opens on the road (2-2 L4)
— Green Bay had three losing seasons in the last six years.

— Bears were 9-25 SU/12-20-2 ATS the last two years.
— Fields is 5-20 SU as an NFL starter; prospect or suspect?
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chicago is 1-8 ATS last nine NFC North home games.
— Bears are 13-9-2 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chicago won four of its last five home openers.
— Bears’ last six home openers stayed under the total.
— Chicago was 3-14 LY; their turnover ratio was only minus-2.

— Green Bay won/covered last eight games in this rivalry.
— Packers are 17-2 SU in last 19 series games.
— Green Bay’s last loss here was in 2018. 

Cowboys (0-0) @ Giants (0-0)
— McCarthy takes over as play-caller for departed OC Moore.
— Last two years, Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 16-11-1 in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Dallas is 6-6 SU/9-3 ATS in last dozen road openers.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road openers.
— QB Prescott is 63-40 as an NFL starter.
— Last six years, Dallas is 11-7 ATS in NFC East road games.

— Giants made playoffs LY for first time since 2016.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (2-1 LY)
— Last five years, Big Blue is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-32-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last 11 years, Giants are 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS in last 11 home openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Giants were +1 in turnovers LY (minus-25 from 2019-21)
— Last four years, under is 23-9-1 in their home games.

— Dallas won four in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six visits to Giants Stadium.
— This is 7th time in last 12 years these teams met in Week 1.

Bills (0-0) @ Jets (0-0)
— Last four years, Bills are 37-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
— Last four years, Buffalo is 13-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Last five years, Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Bills are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Josh Allen is 56-28 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.

— Last 7 years, Jets are 34-80 SU; they have new QB now, guy named Rodgers.
— Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Rodgers is 158-85-1 as an NFL starter, 11-10 in playoff games.
— Last two years, Jets are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Jets are 4-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last three years, Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Jets are 4-8 SU in last 12 home openers, 7-3 ATS in last ten.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.

— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won four of last five series games in New Jersey. 

Tuesday’s Den: Big X football knowledge

Baylor
— last four years, Baylor is 31-19 SU (+33 in turnovers)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— junior QB has 15 starts.
— last two years, Bears are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Baylor is 8-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.

Brigham Young
— 29-9 SU last three years; this is their first year in Big X.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis has thrown 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— under Sitake, BYU is 23-30 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2015, BYU is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Central Florida
— Last six years, UCF is 59-17 SU, 37-37-2 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line- good depth
— senior QB Plumlee has 22 starts between UCF/Ole Miss. 
— last 10 years, Knights are 12-23 ATS coming off a loss.
— in his career, Malzahn is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, 9-14 as a road dog. 
— Central Florida is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.

Cincinnati
— Last 4 years, Bearcats were 53-11 SU/33-30-1 ATS
— New coach Satterfield was 26-24 SU/26-22-2 ATS at Louisville.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— last five years, Cincinnati was 18-12-1 ATS as a home favorite. 
— in his career, Satterfield is 16-8 ATS as road favorite, 9-13-2 as a road dog.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls; favorites covered 4 of their last 5 bowls.

Houston
— went 20-7 last two years, after going 7-13 in 2019-20.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 140 starts back on offensive line- should be improved.
— junior QB Smith started 8 games at Texas Tech
— in his career, Holgorsen is 27-42-1 ATS in home games.
— under Holgorsen, Houston is 5-14 ATS at home.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five bowl games.

Iowa State
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers has withdrawn from school (gambling charges)— Looks like starting QB will be a freshman.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— Last five years, Cyclones are 11-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Iowa State is 11-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2015, Iowa State is 29-15-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).

Kansas
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 18 games.
— last 10 years, Kansas is 21-32-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jayhawks were 3-0 as a home favorite LY (4-11 from 2013-21)
— last four years, Jayhawks are 13-21-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)

— Movie of the Day: Tequila Sunrise (1988)— A drug dealer in Los Angeles tries to go straight, but his past and his underworld connections bring him into the focus of the DEA, the Mexican feds and the Mexican drug cartels.

Mel Gilson is the drug dealer, Kurt Russell/JT Walsh are two of the cops trying to curtail drug dealing, Michelle Pfeiffer owns a restaurant where everyone seems to hang out. Raul Julia is very good in this movie as a Mexican drug dealer.

Very good movie; Gibson/Russell characters are old friends, which complicates things.

— College Football Trend of the Day: Since 2016, Arizona State is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.

Kansas State
— under Klieman, K-State is 30-20 SU, 32-18 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 108 starts back on offensive line; all 5 starters are back
— junior QB has started 15 games.
— under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Wildcats are 3-2 SU in last five bowls (favorite covered last four)

Oklahoma
— Sooners were 6-7 LY, after going 97-22 the previous nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— junior QB Gabriel started 12 games LY, also started at UCF
— UCF visits Norman October 21st.
— last two years, Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 10 years, Sooners are 23-15 ATS in non-conference games.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)

Oklahoma State
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Under Gundy, Cowboys are 47-31-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, OSU is 20-6 ATS outside the Big X.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points. 

Texas
— Texas is 13-12 last two years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-4 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 9-18 ATS as road dog, 10-5 as home dog.
— Since 2016, Texas is 17-7 ATS outside the Big X. 
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.

TCU
— TCU was 13-2 LY, after going 23-24 from 2018-21.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— Horned Frogs will have a new, less experienced QB this year.
— since 2020, TCU is 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2014, TCU is 18-12-2 ATS outside the Big X.
— last ten years, Horned Frogs are 17-25 ATS coming off a loss.
— TCU won 3 of last 4 bowls, but lost national title game 65-7 in January.

Texas Tech
— Tech went 7-6/8-5 last 2 years (43-54 from 2013-20)
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— last four years, Tech is 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— last two years, Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.

West Virginia
— WVU is 22-25 SU/ATS in four years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— whoever QB is will be inexperienced.
— Under Brown, WVU is 13-16 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Brown, WVU is 6-13 ATS coming off win, 14-10 off a loss.
— West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in its last five bowls

Sunday’s Den: A quick trend for every MLB team

— Diamondbacks are 5-16 since the All-Star break.

— Braves are 10-2 in Strider’s last 12 starts.

— Cubs are 22-14 in series openers;  12-5 at home, 10-9 on the road.

— Since All-Star break, Reds are 0-7 in games where game-winning run scored from the 7th inning on.

— Colorado is 1-16 in the last game of their home series.

— LA Dodgers are 24-11 in first game of a series, 16-19 in the last game.

— Marlins are 24-9 this season in one-run games.

— Milwaukee is 9-3 in the game after their last 12 losses.
Milwaukee is 0-6 in game after their last six wins.

— Mets are 39-34 vs right-handed starters, 11-26 vs lefty starters.

— Phillies are 22-14 in one-run games, also 22-14 vs AL opponents.

— Over is 13-3-2 in Pirates’ last 18 home games.

— St Louis is 6-12 in first game of a home series, 11-6 in last game of a home series.

— San Diego is 0-10 in extra inning games.

— Under is 15-3 in San Francisco’s last 18 games.

— Washington is 3-16 in home series openers, 9-9 in road series openers.

— Movie of the Day: The Gambler (2014)— A Literature professor/degenerate gambler is in serious debt; he borrows money from his mother and three loan sharks. He is also having an affair with one of his students.

Mark Wahlberg is the professor; Jessica Lange is his mother, Brie Larson the student, John Goodman is one of the loan sharks.

The scenes where he gambles make me queasy; why would a supposedly smart person take such outrageous chances? It is a good movie, though.

— College Football Trend of the Day: Since 2014, Ball State is 15-34 ATS at home.

— Orioles are 33-17 in games decided by 1 or 2 runs.

— Boston is 13-5 in road series openers, 14-23 in all their other road games.

— White Sox lost their series opener in 14 of their last 15 series.

— Cleveland is 15-20 in series openers, 20-15 in series finales.

— Detroit is 5-17 vs AL East teams, 45-44 vs everyone else. 

— Houston is 1-7 in extra inning games this season.

— Royals are 4-14 in home series openers, 9-9 in home series finales. 

— Angels are 45-38 vs right-handed starters, 11-18 vs lefty starters.

— Since All-Star break, Minnesota is 9-2 in games where winning run scored from the 7th inning on.

— Bronx is 8-12 in home series openers; under is 12-8 in those games.

— A’s started season 12-50, then they won seven games in a row; since then, they’re 12-30.

— Seattle is 15-20 in one-run games; previous two years, they were 67-41. 

— Tampa Bay won its first 12 home series openers; they’re 1-5 in their last six. 

— Texas is in first place with a 65-46 record, despite being 8-14 in one-run games.

— Blue Jays are 10-23 vs their AL East rivals, 52-27 vs everyone else.