Friday’s Den: Thoughts after the first round of the NFL Draft

— NFL had big news hours before the draft started; Baltimore Ravens finally signed QB Lamar Jackson, giving him a 5-year, $260M contract, with $185M of it guaranteed.

Not sure what took so long, but now the Ravens can focus on the 2023 season- they even picked a WR with their first draft pick, Zay Flowers from Boston College.

— Last fall during college football season, I don’t remember any analysts praising QB’s and their chances of being NFL stars, other than USC’s Caleb Williams; I’m pretty sure everyone is already touting Williams as an NFL star— he’ll most likely be the first pick in next year’s draft.

But here we are, the first round is over and three of the first four picks in the 2023 draft were quarterbacks. Go figure. 

— Carolina has a new coach (Frank Reich) who started a different QB every year when he was coach of the Colts. They have the wealthiest owner in the league (which means he ain’t patient) and now they have a new QB, Bryce Young from Alabama.

Young is the first Alabama player ever to be the first pick of an NFL draft.

Andy Dalton figures to start the season at QB for Carolina, but Young will be the starter before long, because that is what #1 picks do these days. They learn by doing.

— Houston Texans have a new coach, and now CJ Stroud is their new QB; the history of Ohio State quarterbacks in the NFL isn’t great. Stroud threw 85 TD’s, 12 INT’s in college, starting for two years in Columbus.

Texans traded up with Arizona and got the #3 pick too, taking LB Will Anderson from Alabama. Houston is 11-38 the last three seasons; they were bold Thursday night, but they paid a big price.

Arizona got the #12 pick, the #33 pick, and Houston’s 1st/3rd round picks next year.

— Mel Kiper Jr has Kentucky QB Will Levis ranked ahead of Stroud in his ratings, but Levis was surprisingly not taken at all in the first round. Tough night for the young man; ESPN’s cameras kept showing him sitting there, waiting to hear his name called. It wasn’t. 

Levis will have a huge chip on his shoulder when he finally is drafted; once upon a time, Miami Dolphins drafted a quarterback after five other QB’s had been taken that year. Guy turned out to be a pretty good player………Dan Marino.

— Indianapolis Colts, Reich’s old team, drafted QB Anthony Richardson from Florida; they have Gardner Minshew to be Richardson’s veteran mentor, but Minshew has started only 24 games in four NFL seasons (8-16 W-L record). Can they afford to let Minshew play the whole year?

Richardson started only 13 college games at Florida; he completed 9-27 passes in his last game and is only 20 years old. QB’s who complete only 53.8% of their passes are usually more suspect than prospect, but he is mobile and new Colts’ coach Shane Steichen worked wonders with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, also a mobile QB, albeit a more experienced one.

— Arizona traded out of the #3 pick to the #12 pick, then traded up to the #6 pick, taking OT Paris Johnson from Ohio State, which should make Kyler Murray happy. One of the guys on NFL Network said “……right now, I think they have the worst roster in the league” referring to the Cardinals.

— Since they blew a 28-3 lead and lost the Super Bowl to New England six years ago, the Atlanta Falcons are 42-56; they took RB Bijan Robinson from Texas with the #8 pick, to try and spruce up their offense, with a young QB (Desmond Ridder) already in place.

— Philadelphia spent a 4th-round pick to move up from the 10th pick to the 9th pick, then they took Georgia DL Jalen Carter, who had slipped because of off-field concerns. He gained nine pounds in two weeks after the NFL Combine, and word was the Georgia coaches didn’t give him much of an endorsement to scouts, which is why he slipped.

Eagles have some other Georgia alums on their squad; they think Carter will be just fine.

— Of the top 10 players in the draft, five played for SEC schools.

— NFL commissioner Roger Goodell makes around $40M a year; he is very good at his job, seems like a good guy. Not wearing a tie at the draft gives everything a more casual air. I’m surprised that Goodell isn’t a lawyer, thought that was part of the deal.

Goodell is terrific at the draft; when the Make-a-Wish kids come out to announce a team’s pick, he is a gracious host.

— I’m off to Las Vegas in ten days, am hoping the NFL will announce the 2023 schedule while I’m there. Want to watch the betting activity in the casino when the first games are posted, think it’ll be fun.

Here’s the thing: they haven’t announced when they’re releasing this year’s schedule. Last year they released the schedule May 12th; I’m hoping for May 11th (or 18th) this year. We’ll see if I’m a good travel planner. If not, I’ll still be in Las Vegas, which is always fun.

— Four of the first 14 players drafted Thursday were offensive tackles; quarterbacks are really expensive, so they have to be protected.

— There wasn’t a wide receiver taken until the 20th pick, but then four in a row were picked.

— Tennessee Titans took OT Peter Skoronski from Northwestern with the #11 pick; the young man has good blood lines, his grandfather is Bob Skoronski, who was a linemen for Green Bay in Super Bowls I, II— he played 11 years in the NFL.

— They had 125,000 people in Kansas City to watch all this Thursday night; rounds 2-3 are tonight, with the rest of the draft on Saturday.

The draft is a fascinating process; not everyone is good at it, which is why it is so interesting. 

Friday’s Den: Early season trends for NFC teams…….

Cardinals
2-5 ATS last seven home openers (1-5-1 SU)
three of last four home openers went over total
covered last four road openers (won last three SU)
four of last five road openers stayed under

Falcons
15-4 ATS last 19 home openers (lost last three SU)
over 5-2 last seven home openers
6-13 ATS in last 19 road openers.
1-4 ATS last five years in Week 1

Panthers
opened at home the last five years
1-3 SU last four home openers.
over 3-1 in last four home openers
5-7 ATS last 12 road openers.

Bears
4-2 ATS last six home openers (won 4 of last 5 SU)
2-6 SU/ATS last eight road openers
under 6-0-1 last seven home openers
Under 17-5 last 22 road openers
Started out 0-1 SU seven of last nine years

Cowboys
Started last three seasons 0-1 SU
5-1 SU/4-2 ATS last six home openers
three of last four home openers went over
Covered three of last four road openers

Lions
Underdogs covered their last five home openers
2-6 SU/4-2 ATS in home openers
Over 10-3 in last 13 home openers
5-16-1 SU/4-3 ATS in road openers
Over 7-1 in last eight road openers

Packers
10-0 SU/8-2 ATS last ten home openers
Under 4-2 last six home openers
Lost 23-7/38-3 in last two road openers
Under 3-1 last four road openers
Opened on the road the last four years

Rams
Covered seven of last eight home openers
Under 4-1 last five home openers
6-0 SU/4-2 ATS in road openers under McVay
Four of last six road openers went over total.

Vikings
Covered seven of last eight home openers
under 8-1 last nine home openers
0-5-1 SU/0-6 ATS last six road openers
Under 4-2 last six road openers

Giants
2-9 SU/1-10 ATS last 11 home openers
Last nine home openers stayed under the total
1-5 SU last six road openers, but covered last three
Under 5-2 last seven road openers

Saints
2-6 SU/1-7 ATS last eight home openers
over 6-1 last seven home openers
2-4 SU/1-5 ATS last six road openers
started out 1-0 SU three of last four years

Eagles
5-2 SU/3-4 ATS last seven home openers
under 6-3 last nine home openers
1-4 ATS last five road openers
started season 1-0 six of last seven years

49ers
3-3 SU/1-5 ATS last six home openers
Under 7-2 last nine home openers
Four of last six road openers stayed under total
started season 0-1 four of last six years

Seahawks
18-2 SU/15-5 ATS last 20 home openers
Under 17-4-1 last 22 home openers
covered three of last four road openers
started last four seasons 1-0 SU

Buccaneers
4-5 SU/3-6 ATS last nine home openers
Over 5-3 last eight home openers
5-3 ATS last eight road openers
Over 5-2 last seven road openers

Commanders
3-8 SU/ATS last 11 home openers
three of last four home openers went over
0-4 SU/1-3 ATS last four road openers, giving up 34.5 ppg
Over 10-4 last 14 road openers

Thursday’s Den: Early season trends for AFC teams………

Ravens
Last seven years, they’re 6-1 ATS in Week 1
5-2 ATS last seven home openers
Last three years, scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
10-5 ATS last 15 road openers

Bills
10-5 SU in last 15 home openers, 7-4 ATS in last 11
Three of last four home openers stayed under total.
4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.

Bengals
2-5 ATS in last seven home openers
6-2 ATS last eight road openers, but lost last four SU
Three of last four road openers stayed under total.

Browns
6-18 ATS in home openers (0-4 last four years)
0-9 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Last three years, scored 35-31-30 points in home opener.
Over is 7-2 in last nine home openers.
Covered four of last five road openers.
Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.

Broncos
Last 34 years, Denver is 29-5 SU in home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
Last four home openers stayed under total.
1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
Four of last five road openers stayed under total.

Texans
2-1-1 SU in last four home openers
Lost seven of last eight road openers SU, but…….
…..they covered five of last six road openers.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.

Colts
Covered three of last four home openers
Last three home openers stayed under the total
1-6-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
Last nine years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in Week 1.

Jaguars
Covered three of last five home openers.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
Covered four of last six road openers
Last three road openers went over the total.
Jaguars are 2-6 ATS as a favorite in road openers.

Chiefs
7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in last seven home openers.
Over is 5-1-2 in last eight home openers.
5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six road openers.
Over is 5-1 in last six road openers.
Last seven years, Chiefs scored 33+ points in Week 1.

Raiders
Covered four of last six home openers (last two went to OT)
Over is 7-2 in last nine home openers
Covered five of last seven road openers.
Under is 4-2 in last six road openers.
Raiders started 1-0 in five of last seven years. 

Chargers
Started 1-0 the last four years.
Lost four of last six home openers.
Under is 3-0 in their home openers at SoFi.
8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
Lost SU in six of last nine road openers.
Last four road openers stayed under the total.

Dolphins
Covered four of last six home openers.
Four of last five home openers went over total
6-2 ATS in last eight road openers
Last 19 years, under is 17-2 in their road openers.
Last three years, they played New England in Week 1.

Patriots
Lost 17-16/37-26 in last two home openers.
Four of last five home openers stayed under total.
Favorites covered their last four road openers.
Under is 3-1 in their last four road openers.

Jets
Last four years, Jets started season 0-1.
0-5 SU/ATS in last five home openers.
Under is 5-1 in last six home openers.
7-3 ATS in last ten road openers.
Over is 4-1 in their last five road openers.

Steelers
Started season on the road the last eight years
5-1-1 SU/4-3 ATS last seven road openers/Week 1 games
Last six road openers stayed under the total.
1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
Under is 5-2 in last seven home openers.

Titans
2-7 SU/ATS in last nine home openers (0-4 last four years).
Five of their last six home openers stayed under the total.
8-2 SU/7-3 ATS last ten road openers
Four of their last six road openers went over the total.