Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

Now that we’re in conference play in college basketball, we’ll have some notes on March Madness now and then:

— For the first time ever, a #15-seed has upset a #2-seed in the first round of the NCAAs for three straight years: Oral Roberts, St Peter’s, Princeton.

Four of the last five #15-seeds that won in the first round (add in Florida Gulf Coast in 2013) also won in the second round, and three of those four teams covered in their regional semifinal game. St Peter’s is the only #15-seed that made it to a regional final.

— The last 17 years, the team that wound up winning the national title was 14-3 ATS in their first round game, the exceptions being:
2012- Kentucky, -26, won 81-66
2019- UCLA, -21.5, won 71-56
2021- Baylor, -26, won 79-55

Since 2006, every other national champ covered their first round game.

— What stats can help identify who the national champ will be?
1) offensive efficiency- last seven years, all seven champs were in the top 10.
2) defensive efficiency- last seven years, all seven champs were in the top 25.
3) Five of last seven national champs were #1-seeds, one was a 2-seed, UConn LY was a #4.
4) Five of last seven national champs were in top 100 in % of points scored on the arc.
5) Five of last seven national champs were in top 125 in continuity.

Stats that don’t seem to matter:
Tempo- only two of last seven champs were in top 125 in pace of play.
Bench minutes- only one of last seven champs was in top 200 in bench minutes

Forcing turnovers- low FG% by opponents seems to matter a lot more.
only 2 of last 7 national champs were in top 200 in % of points scored inside arc.

We’ll do more of this as we get closer to March…….

— Gonzaga is out of the top 25 for the first time since 2016.

— There are eight Big X teams in the Top 25 right now, only two ACC teams.

— Michigan State hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament since 1997; right now, the Spartans are 10-7, only 2-4 in conference, albeit against a difficult schedule.

— Baseball Fact of the Day- In 1960, Cincinnati Reds went 67-87, finished 28 games out of first place in the 8-team National League. The next year, Cincinnati went 93-67 and won the National League, losing the World Series in five games.

— In his 6-year NFL career, Baker Mayfield has played for eight different head coaches.

— NFC East is the only division that won’t have a team in the playoffs this weekend.

— Last 11 times an NFL playoff game had a double-digit spread, the favorite went 10-1 ATS.

— New Orleans Saints fired offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, the longest-tenured offensive coordinator in the NFL- he had been with the Saints for 18 years. 

— When the Houston Texans traded QB Deshaun Watson to Cleveland, they got back:
Three (3!!!) 1st round picks
3rd-round pick
5th-round pick

Cleveland also got a 5th-round pick from Houston.

— USC QB Caleb Williams declared for the NFL Draft; he is expected to be the #1 pick in the draft, whether it is by the Bears or some other team.

— Word of the Day: Aberration- a departure from what is normal, usual, or expected, usually something that is unwelcome.

— Georgia Tech 93, Clemson 90, 2OT
Yellow Jackets snap their 5-game losing skid.
Clemson led this game by 9 with 1:43 left in regulation.
Tech was 15-35 on the arc, Clemson was 3-21

— Cincinnati 81, TCU 77 OT
Bearcats trailed by 7 with 7:25 left in the game.

— Samford 75, Western Carolina 71
Samford has won 17 games in a row, after an 0-2 start.

TV announcer for this game mentioned how Samford coach Bucky McMillan has played in the World Series of Poker twice. He started telling the story at a key point near the end of the game, so he never got to finish the story, and tell us how McMillan did in the WSOP.

— Penn State 87, Wisconsin 83- First loss for the Badgers in six conference games.

— Seton Hall 80, St John’s 65- Red Storm coach Rick Pitino has COVID, missed this game. Seton Hall has won eight of its last nine games.

— Charlotte 81, Rice 79 OT- Owls have now lost their last five games, losing two of last three games in OT. Rice led this game 24-4 early on.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.

So far this season, it has happened 26 times, so 52 games; underdogs are 32-20 ATS in those games, over 30-22 (13-13 first night, 17-9 second night)

— We’ve started something a little different; on the college basketball page, I’ll post info on five of every day’s most interesting games. 

Author: Armadillo Sports

I've been involved in sports my whole life, now just write about them. I like to travel, mostly to Las Vegas- they have gambling there.