College football season starts Saturday; here is our writeup for Saturday’s games, which are also posted every week on the college football page. Once the season gets rolling, we post write-ups on the 13 best games each week.
Navy vs Notre Dame (@ Ireland)
Navy
— Navy was 11-23 SU last three years; new coach was DC last year.
— Newberry has never been a head coach before.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— Unclear who QB will be.
— Last ten years, Navy is 31-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Last ten years, Navy is 18-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last five years, Middies are +15 in turnovers.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.
Notre Dame
— Last six years, Notre Dame is 63-14 SU.
— LY’s offensive coordinator bolted to Alabama; new OC was TE coach.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish were 1-4 ATS as a favorite LY (18-9-2 from 2019-21).
— Notre Dame was minus-3 in turnovers LY (+32 from 2019-21)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Notre Dame won last five meetings (2-3 ATS)
— Last year, Irish (-16) beat Navy 35-32 (total yards: 363-335, Navy)
UTEP @ Jacksonville State
UTEP
— UTEP was 7-6/5-7 last two years (one winning season last 10 years)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 29 starts.
— Under Dimel, Miners are 28-35 ATS on the road.
— Last three years, UTEP is 12-8 ATS in conference games.
— Last five years, UTEP is minus-43 in turnovers.
— Miners have played in one bowl since 2014 (2021 New Mexico Bowl)
Jacksonville State
— This is Jacksonville State’s first season in I-A football
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 46-54-2 ATS in home games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— This is their first year in I-A, so no pointspread trends.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.
UMass @ New Mexico State
UMass
— Last four years, UMass is 3-37 SU/13-26-1 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 87 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 16 starts; they added a transfer QB from Georgia Tech.
— Since 2018, UMass is 7-20-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Only UMass win last year was 20-3 over I-AA Stony Brook.
— Minutemen lost their last 24 road games SU.
— UMass hasn’t been to a bowl since the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl.
New Mexico State
— Aggies went 7-6 LY (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Last four years, Aggies are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, coach Kill is 22-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.
— Aggies beat UMass last two years, 44-27/23-13.
Ohio U @ San Diego State
Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.
San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Last 4 years, San Diego State is 10-7 ATS in non-conference games.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Ohio (-2.5) beat San Diego State 27-0 in 2018 Frisco Bowl.
— Last two years, Mountain West teams are 5-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
Hawai’i @ Vanderbilt
Hawai’i
—last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two years, Rainbows are 3-7 ATS out of conference.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.
Vanderbilt
— Last four years, Vandy is 10-35 SU; last bowl was 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— Last 4 years, Commodores are 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Lea, Vandy is 3-10 ATS at home, 8-3 ATS on road.
— Vandy lost last two bowls 41-17/45-38; their last bowl win was in 2013.
— Vanderbilt (-9) whacked Hawai’i 63-10 in LY’s opener.
— Since 2018, SEC teams are 10-5 ATS against Mountain West opponents.
San Jose State @ USC
San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three years, San Jose is 3-6 ATS out of conference.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.
USC
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 23-15 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 at USC.
— In his career, underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in Riley’s road games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl
— USC (-14) beat San Jose State 30-7 here two years ago.
— Pac-12 teams were 7-3 ATS vs Mountain West LY (15-25 ATS from 2017-21)
FIU @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
— last four years, FIU is 11-31 ATS, 13-28-1 ATS
— junior QB started 10 games last year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line, with a new OL coach
— Last four years, Panthers are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog..
— FIU was 4-4 ATS in conference LY (2-16-1 ATS from 2019-21)
— FIU lost three of last four bowls SU; they haven’t been to bowl since 2019.
Louisiana Tech
— Tech went 3-9/3-9 SU the last two years.
— junior QB started 29 games at Boise State.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; one guy is in his 7th college season.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2017, Bulldogs are 19-22-1 ATS in conference games.
— Tech won four of last five bowls SU (last bowl was in 2020).
— FIU (+6) beat Louisiana Tech 42-34 in OT last year.
— Movie of the Day— Trouble with the Curve (2012)— A daughter tries to fix her dysfunctional relationship with her aging father, a longtime baseball scout, by helping him on a scouting trip, which could be his last.
Clint Eastwood is the scout; his character has vision issues, which is a problem for a scout. Amy Adams is his daughter, Justin Timberlake is another scout. Very good cast: John Goodman, Ed Lauter, Chelcie Ross, Matthew Lillard, Jack Gilpin.
— NFL Trend of the Day— Last seven years, Baltimore Ravens are 6-1 SU/ATS in Week 1.
— Before Monday night, last team to beat the Ravens in a preseason game was Atlanta, which edged Baltimore 20-19. Ravens had won 24 exhibition games in a row since then.
— If I ran a pro football team, no way would I want a rookie quarterback unless he started for 2+ years in college. The more football you play, the better prepared you are for the NFL.
— Florida Atlantic’s starting QB this year will be Casey Thompson, who has also played at Texas and Nebraska. He played for current FAU coach Tom Herman at Texas.
— Apparently Albert Pujols is the only hitter ever who hit 40+ home runs in a season, with every home run against a different pitcher. This season, Atlanta’s Matt Olson is on a similar path, with 43 home runs against 43 different pitchers.
