13) From 2015-17, Cleveland Browns were 4-44; LY, they went 7-8-1, but they let Gregg Williams walk and hired QB coach Freddie Kitchens instead- he’s never been a head coach. Browns were 9-4 vs spread as an underdog LY; they were 12-30-1 the previous three years.
Browns were +7 in turnovers LY, after being -9/-12/-28 the three years before that; finally having a good QB was a big part of that.
12) Tennessee Titans have gone 9-7 the last three years, despite not having a positive turnover ratio in any of those years (even/-1/-4). Titans only made playoffs once in those years, and even fired a head coach after he made the playoffs, and won a playoff game.
Last three years, Titans are 6-1 vs spread as a divisional home favorite, 2-4-2 as non-divisional home favorite.
11) In four years since letting Jim Harbaugh walk, the 49ers are 17-47; they were 44-19-1 when he was their coach (5-3 in playoffs).
Since 2014, Niners are 13-19 vs spread as a road underdog. Over is 20-12 in their road games the last four years. SF was -25 in turnovers LY; Garoppolo got hurt and they played backup QB’s all season. Garoppolo is back now; how much of a bounce does that give the 49ers?
10) Bruce Arians was 49-30-1 as coach of the Cardinals; he was 20-12-1 vs spread in games with a spread of 3 or fewer points, which is very strong.
This is Jameis Winston’s 5th year in the NFL; Buccaneers are 25-39 in his first four seasons, 21-33 in Winston’s starts— it is going to be on Winston if things don’t get better this season.
Last five years, Tampa Bay is 4-13 vs spread as a home favorite.
9) Seahawks are 75-36-1 SU in the Russell Wilson era (8-5 in playoffs); since 2014, Seattle is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog vs NFC West opponents. Since 2011, Seahawks covered 10 of 12 games as a home underdog.
Seattle was +15 in turnovers last year; over last four years they’re +30.
8) Cincinnati Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990; Marvin Lewis went 131-122-3 in 16 years as the Bengals’ coach, but he was 0-7 in playoff games, so Cincy turns to rookie head coach Zach Taylor, who is the son-in-law of former Packer coach Mike Sherman.
Over last decade, Bengals are 42-27-5 vs spread as an underdog, 14-7-1 at home. Cincy won four of its last five Week 1 games, with all four wins on the road.
7) Last year, Houston Texans ran the ball on 53% of 2nd-down plays that followed 1st down incompletions, most in the NFL. Analytics people will tell you that is a bad thing.
6) Over last decade, underdogs are 22-8 vs spread in Jets’ AFC East home games; they’re 5-11 as a favorite when hosting a division foe, 11-3 when an underdog.
Over last four years, Jets are 5-12-1 vs spread on grass; since 2011, they’re 8-18-2 vs spread as an non-divisional road underdog. Over is 19-11-1 in their home games the last four years.
5) From 2015-17, Buffalo was 22-20 in Tyrod Taylor’s starts; they made the playoffs in 2017 for the first time since 1999, but then they drafted QB Josh Allen, shipped Taylor off to Cleveland and regressed to 6-10 LY, with seven losses by 11+ points.
Over last five years, Buffalo is 7-2-2 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog; last three years, they’re 4-7 as a home underdog.
Allen’s development is essential; Bills were 33-31 in the four years before he got to Buffalo.
4) From 2005-2016, Rams were 60-113-1; in two years under Sean McVay, they’re 24-8, with a +19 turnover ratio. Under McVay, Rams are 10-5 at home, 14-3 on road.
LA is reshuffling its offensive line this year; they’ll have new starters at left guard/center.
3) Since 2014, Carolina Panthers are 7-3 vs spread as a home underdog[ 3-3 in divisional games, 4-0 outside NFC South. Since 2012, Panthers are 22-11 as a road underdog, 6-16-1 as a road favorite. Carolina won four of last five Week 1 games, allowing 14 or fewer points in all four wins.
2) Jacksonville has had one winning season since 2007 (10-6 in ’17); they were +10 in turnovers that year. Nick Foles spent two years as a backup QB on Andy Reid-coached teams, starting seven games; he’s won a Super Bowl but has never started more than 11 games in a season.
None of Jacksonville’s backup QB’s have ever played in an NFL game.
Last six years, Jaguars are 4-20 vs spread when facing an NFC team; this year will be the 8th year in a row they’ll be a Week 1 underdog (3-4 vs spread in last seven).
1) Kansas City’s turnover ratios the last four years: +9/+15/+16/+14- thats +54 in 64 games. Last three years, Chiefs scored 33-42-38 points in their season opener. KC covered nine of its last 12 games as a road underdog. Over last four years, Chiefs are 12-5 vs spread in games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.