Selection Sunday is three weeks away; what information will you use to fill out your brackets? After studying the last five NCAA tournaments, here is some knowledge to ponder:
Stats that don’t seem to matter much:
Depth— Of the last 20 teams to make the Final Four, only 2 of 20 ranked in the top 100 in bench minutes. TV timeouts are longer in the NCAA’s; starters have more time to rest.
Playing fast- Only 5 of the last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in tempo; 11 of 20 were outside the top 200 in tempo.
Forcing turnovers- Only 4 of the last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in forcing turnovers; 8 of 20 were outside the top 200.
So what numbers should we be looking at in three weeks:
1) Who makes shots, and who prevents opponents from making shots
15 of last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in offensive efficiency.
14 of last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in defensive efficiency.
2) Experience
12 of last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in experience.
3) Being able to make 3-point shots
You don’t need to shoot a lot of them, but 17 of last 20 Final Four teams were in top 100 in 3-point shooting %age- 10 of 20 were in the top 50.
So, we’re looking for experienced teams with a good shooting percentage.
Top 8 teams in offensive efficiency:
Auburn
Duke
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
Houston
Missouri
Gonzaga
Top 8 teams in defensive efficiency:
Tennessee
St John’s
Houston
Duke
Kansas
Texas A&M
San Diego State
Florida
Next week, we’ll look into whether or not winning/losing the conference tournament means anything, as far as success in the NCAA’s goes.
— Upsets of the Day:
Oregon (+8.5) 77, Wisconsin 73
Oral Roberts (+8.5) 71, St Thomas 66
Dartmouth (+7.5) 76, Princeton 61
Saint Mary’s (+6.5) 74, Gonzaga 67
Colorado (+6.5) 76, Baylor 74
Valparaiso (+6.5) 83, Southern Illinois 79
Hampton (+5.5) 83, NC-Wilmington 70
Marshall (+4.5) 69, Appalachian State 59
Eastern Illinois (+4.5) 67, Morehead State 62
— SEC
Tennessee 77, Texas A&M 69
Tennessee shot 13-27 on the arc, Aggies were 5-30.
Vols have won five of their last six games.
Arkansas 92, Missouri 85
Arkansas was 28-37 on foul line, Mizzou 13-17
Ivsic scored 20 points for the Hogs; he was 0-10 from floor in the Hogs’ last game.
Bracketology has 12 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament.
— WCC
Saint Mary’s 74, Gonzaga 65— Gaels clinch the WCC regular season title; they’re 5-3 in their last eight games vs Gonzaga.
Gonzaga is 2-7 in games decided by 8 or fewer points
Santa Clara 109, Washington State 79
Santa Clara took 38 3-point shots, made 23 of them; not bad.
Broncos led this game 61-33 at halftime.
— Big X
BYU 96, Arizona 95
Arizona scored 1.36 points/possession, but lost
BYU was 14-31 on arc, Wildcats 10-22.
BYU won eight of its last ten games.
— Big 18
Oregon 77, Wisconsin 73
Badgers led by 14 with 6:15 left in the game.
Oregon was +9 in turnovers (17-8) in turnovers.
Ducks have won four in a row, after a 1-6 skid.
Bracketology has ten Big 18 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
— Atlantic 15
VCU 70, George Mason 54
Rams have won six in row, 12 of last 13 games.
These teams are tied first first in the A-15, with four games left.
This is first week in while that Bracketology has A-15 getting two bids to the NCAAs this year: VCU-George Mason would probably have to meet in A-15 final, for that to happen.
VCU has a well-traveled player, 6-10 senior Jack Clark:
2018-22- LaSalle
2022-23- NC State
2023-24- Clemson
2024-25- VCU
Clark is playing 27 minutes/game this year, is shooting 64.5% inside the arc; he had 12 points, nine rebounds in this game.
— Famous birthdays, February 23rd:
Jackie Smith, 85
Fred Biletnikoff, 82
Jim Youngblood, 75
Ed (Too Tall) Jones, 74
Paul McDonald, 67
Bobby Bonilla, 62
Jerod Mayo, 39
Andrew Wiggins, 30
D’Angelo Russell, 29
Jamal Murray, 28
— Ivy League
Yale 90, Columbia 64
Yale has won 12 games in a row, the longest active win streak in the country.
— Sun Belt
Texas State 93, South Alabama 92 OT
Jaguars scored 1.33 points/possession and lost. Unusual.
USA had an 8-point lead midway thru the second half.
Bobcats were 13-28 on arc, South Alabama was 12-27
Doesn’t matter so much, because the conference tournament is on a neutral floor in Pensacola, FL, but with two games left in the regular season, James Madison leads three other teams by a game atop the Sun Belt standings.
— Mountain West
Utah State 79, San Diego State 71
Aztecs are tied for 4th with Boise State in the MW standings. Unusual.
Bracketology has three Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament.
— WAC
Texas-Arlington 67, Tarleton State 57
Saw something in this game I’ve never seen before, at least not in the shot clock era; Tarleton led 29-23 at halftime. Eight Texas-Arlington players had scored, but none of them had more than 3 points. The team’s leading scorer had 3 points at halftime, then they went out and scored 44 points in the second half.
