Saturday’s Den: Trends that could help you fill out your brackets…….

13) Over last decade, 40 teams made the Final Four; 19 of those won their conference tournament that year. Four of the 19 teams had to win more than three games to win the conference tourney:
2011— UConn 5-0
2012— Louisville 4-0
2018— Michigan 4-0
2019— Auburn 4-0

12) Only four of the 40 teams lost their first conference tourney game:
2010— Michigan State
2016— Syracuse
2017— South Carolina
2019— Texas Tech

7 of 40 teams went W-L in their conference tournament.

11) Seven of last ten years, a #1 seed won the NCAA Tournament.
— In 2016, Villanova won the title as a 2-seed.
— UConn won as a 3-seed in 2011, as a 7-seed three years later.

10) The last seven years, eight teams ranked lower than a 4-seed reached the Final Four; in 2014, UConn was a 7-seed, Kentucky an 8-seed.

9) Last team to win the national title after going unbeaten in conference play? Kentucky in 2012, one of four teams over last decade to make Final Four after going unbeaten in conference games.

8) Last eight years, 27 of 32 Final Four teams were ranked in KenPom’s top 20 before the NCAA Tournament started. 2014 UConn was only one of the five to win the national semifinal; they also won the national title- they were #23.

In 2011, the Final Four had seeds 3-4-8-11, only time in last decade there wasn’t a #1 or #2 seed in Final Four.

7) Only nine of 40 Final Four teams were in top 100 in experience; 12 of 40 teams were outside top 200. Talent outweighs experience.

6) Looking at continuity instead of experience, only 12 of 40 teams ranked in top 100; 14 of 40 teams ranked outside top 200.

5) 14 of 40 Final Four teams ranked in top 100 in forcing turnovers; another 14 ranked outside the top 200.

4) eFG% defense seems like an important category; 33 of last 40 Final Four teams were in top 100 in eFG% defense. 21 of those 33 teams were in the top 50.

3) NCAA Tournament has longer TV commercials, which means that depth isn’t as important; only four of last 40 Final Four teams had benches in top 100 of minutes played. 26 of 40 teams had teams that ranked outside top 200.

They don’t call as many fouls in the NCAA tournament.
2) Some in-tournament trends about the eventual national champ:
— Last 14 years, national champ was 12-2 ATS in first round
— Last 18 years, national champ was 16-2 ATS in second round.
— Last 12 years, national champ was 10-2 ATS in regional semis.

1) Of the last 20 defending national champs, 2007 Florida Gators were only team to return to Sweet 16; Florida won consecutive national titles.

Since 2004, the defending national champ is 2-8-1 ATS in its first round game, 3-7 in its second round game, 0-5 ATS in regional semifinals. 

Author: Armadillo Sports

I've been involved in sports my whole life, now just write about them. I like to travel, mostly to Las Vegas- they have gambling there.