Saints 20, Dolphins 0— Miami has played three games; in LA, New Jersey and London; they have scored 2 TD’s on 29 drives- difficult to assess how much of this is ineptitude and how much of it is the distractions they’ve had so far, combined with the hurricane messing up life in south Florida. But they got shut out BY THE SAINTS!!!, a huge red flag. I honestly think backup QB Matt Moore is better than Jay Cutler.
Panthers 33, Patriots 30— Carolina had only 3 TD’s on 28 drives coming in; they had four TD’s on nine drives in this upset win. NE allowed 42-20-33-33 points in first four games, and three of those were at home, Under Rivera, Panthers are 20-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Since 2010, over is 39-20 in Patriot home games.
Rams 35, Cowboys 30—Dallas is now 0-8 in game the week after their last 8 Monday night games. LA scored 142 points in its first four games (12 TD’s, 14 FGAs on 41 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4/6.8 yards/pass attempt. Rams’ improvement on offense over last year is astounding- they also had a 13-yard edge in field position. Greg Zuerlein had seven FG’s for the 3-1, first-place Rams.
Lions 14, Vikings 7— Detroit has now won three of last four visits here; Lions’ only TD drive was 29 yards. Minnesota lost three fumbles (-3 in TO’s), also lost rookie RB Cook with a torn ACL. Vikings scored 9-7 points in their losses, 29-34 in their wins.
A bettor at the Mirage in Las Vegas made a six-figure first half wager on the Broncos; when that won, he rolled it over on the Seahawks -12 in the Sunday night game. I’m writing this during the 2nd half of the 4:00 games, so we’ll see how he makes out later on tonite.
Texans 57, Titans 14—Deshaun Watson was the 12th player taken in last spring’s draft; the Jets need a good young QB- they passed on him. Think a lot of teams would like a do-over on that draft.
NFL teams that turn the ball over five times almost never win. Titans had turned ball over once in their first three games, but were -4 in turnovers in this game. Houston has now scored 90 points in its last two games, both against good teams, and with a rookie QB.
Jets 23, Jaguars 20 OT— This was like old-time football; rushing yardage was 256-175, Jets, who scored two TD’s, on runs of 75-69 yards. Jaguars completed only 15-35 passes, averaged 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which is poor. Under Bowles, New York is 11-7 vs spread at home. Total yardage in this game was 471-311, Jets, but Jax did score a defensive TD.
Under is 11-9 so far this week, as far as individual team over/unders.
Bengals 31, Browns 7— Bengals have now beaten Cleveland six times in row, winning last three visits to Lake Erie, by 34-13-24 points. Under is 18-8 in Cincy’s last 26 road games. Cleveland is 3-11-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a home underdog; they missed a 48-yard FG when game was scoreless and things got worse from there- they averaged 3.9 ypa.
Steelers 26, Ravens 9— Ravens were +7 in TO’s in winning their first two games; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in two games since then. Under is 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Steelers ran ball for 173 yards here, after running it for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg). Under is 20-7 in Pitt’s last 27 road games. Baltimore has only six plays of 20+ yards all season, 2nd-least in league.
Bills 23, Falcons 17— Key play of this game was a “fumble” that really looked like Ryan threw the ball as he was hit, but it was ruled a fumble/TD for the Bills. Buffalo has allowed only 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up four TD’s on 42 drives; holding Falcons to 17 points on carpet is impressive. Atlanta is just 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn. Six of the eight 1:00 games Sunday were won SU by the underdog.
Buccaneers 25, Giants 23— Giants are 0-4, running ball 64 times for 193 yards, scoring 7 TD’s on 41 drives- their last two losses were by total of 5 points. Big Blue has been outscored 53-17 in first half of games; they have 43-42 edge in 2nd half. 8 for 17 on 3rd down was much better than 11-34 in first three games. 0-4 Chargers visit Swamp Stadium next week. Bucs are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Eagles 26, Chargers 24— Philly ran ball for 214 yards, killed off last 6:44 of game by running ball for four first downs after Chargers closed to within 26-24. Philly is 3-1 despite playing only one home game so far; they were 9-16 on 3rd down, are 30-59 on 3rd down for season- very good. Chargers are 0-4 with three losses by 3 or less points; they visit 0-4 Giants next week.
Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 (OT)— There were no TD’s in game until Palmer hit Fitzgerald with 0:32 left in OT to end things. Each team had ball only once in 10:00 OT; 49ers ate up 7:36 and kicked their 5th FG of game to take 15-12 lead, but Arizona drove 75 yards in seven plays for the win. 49ers haven’t scored a TD in three of their four games; they scored 39 points in the other game, a 41-39 loss to the Rams.
Broncos 16, Raiders 10— There were ugly rumors on the Interweb over the weekend that the Raider O-line wasn’t happy that Derek Carr wouldn’t kneel for national anthem with his teammates last Monday night in Washington, so they tanked couple of plays so he would get clocked and “learn a lesson”. Hopefully those rumors aren’t true.
Carr hurt his back Sunday in Denver, was replaced by EJ Manuel. If he can’t play anymore, the Raiders’ season is screwed.
Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 series games; Oakland lost five of last six visits to Denver.
Seahawks 46, Colts 18—Game was tied in 3rd quarter, before Seahawks broke it open by scoring three TD’s in a 5:56 span- their defense scored two TD’s in the game. Seattle is 27-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll; they’re 9-3 in last 12 games when laying double digits. Colts’ offense has allowed four defensive TD’s in two road games, losing 46-9/46-18.
In the second half, Seahawks ran 40 plays for 337 yards, scored four TD’s. In one half.
As for the guy in Las Vegas who bet six figures on Denver in the first half today, then doubled down on Seattle in this game, I’m guessing it is fun to be hanging out with him tonight.