Friday’s Den: Going back to school, and our first set of NBA trends…….

Feel like I’ve gone back to school this week; been studying college basketball, which has changed drastically over the last five years.

Last year was a debacle for everyone; TCU had one full practice before they played a game, Many teams had 2-week/3-week lapses because of COVID. Kids are switching schools left and right; I expect a kid to transfer during a TV timeout, switching benches during a game.

Lot of the methods I used to use to pick games on this site don’t matter as much anymore; trends from previous years— the transfer epidemic has made past history less relevant. All that matters now is the current roster, and how coaches are at creating chemistry after the dust clears from the transfer chaos.

I went to UAlbany, a low-major school; they fired their coach last spring, a guy who had brought the Great Danes to five NCAA tourneys in 20 years.

I am told the coach and AD despise each other, but three years ago, with Albany one of the favorites in America East, both his returning starting guards transferred, one to Florida State, one to Villanova. Albany had a losing season; if those two kids had stayed, Great Danes might’ve won the league, and the coach would’ve gotten a raise instead of losing his job.

South Florida lost five transfers last spring; they added seven transfers. They basically have a whole new team. Lot of schools like that. Do they teams with lot of returning players have a big advantage early on?

Minnesota changed coaches, then 10 of their 12 players transferred out of town. The new coach had two players and one of those can’t play because he had his knee operated on. He now has players from 10 different states; harder to have good chemistry that way.

Texas poached eight players and added two freshmen- their haul of transfers is supposedly the best in the country.

On and on it goes; the transfer portal is huge in college basketball right now. Once the games start in couple weeks, we’ll be studying rosters to see who did the best job at cobbling together a viable team.

At least it is invigorating that things seem to be getting back to normal; I’m studying up on these teams, will provide you what information I can as the season goes on. The bottom line one all this is that we’ll be studying numbers as closely as ever, just a different set of numbers.

NBA trends (thru Wednesday’s games)
We’re going to post NBA/NHL trends once/twice a week in this space; trends become more meaningful as the season moves along. 

— Home favorites are 20-21 ATS
— Road favorites are 15-8 ATS

Hawks (3-1):
— 2-0 ATS at home, 0-2 on road.
— Under 3-1, 2-0 on road.

Celtics (2-3):
— Under 3-1 last four games.
— Under 2-0 at home
— 2-0 ATS as home favorite.
— 0-2 ATS as road favorite.

Nets (2-3):
— Under 5-0
— 1-2 ATS at home
— All three losses by 13+ points.

Hornets (4-1):
— Won four of first five games SU
— Over 4-1
— 3-0 ATS on road.

Bulls (4-0):
— 4-0 ATS as a favorite.
— 4-0 SU for first time since 1997

Cavaliers (3-2):
— Won last three games SU.
— Last three games stayed under.
— Were underdog in all five games.
— 3-0 if games stays under; 0-2 if it goes over.

Mavericks (2-1):
— Under 3-0
— Won last two games, by 8-10 points.

Nuggets (2-2):
— Under 3-1
— Lost last two games, by 12-12 points.

Pistons (0-3):
— Three losses were by 6-15-18 points.
— 0-3 ATS
— Road losses are by 15-18 points.
— Under 2-1

Warriors (4-0):
— Last three games stayed under.
— 2-2 ATS, 1-2 when favored.

Rockets (1-3):
— Under 4-0
— 2-2 ATS
— 0-2 SU on road, losing by 18-10 points.

Pacers (1-4):
— Over 3-0 on road, 0-2 at home
— Only win was in OT
— Have two losses by one point.
— 0-3 ATS on road.

Clippers (1-3):
— Under 3-1
— 1-2 ATS as favorite, 1-0 as underdog.

Lakers (2-3):
— Over 4-1
— 1-4 ATS, 0-3 at home.
— 0-4 ATS when favored, 1-0 as an underdog.

Grizzlies (2-2):
— Over 3-1
— 2-1 ATS as road underdog, 1-0 as favorite.

Heat (3-1):
— Last three games stayed under.
— 2-0 SU at home, winning by 42-17 points.
— Only loss was in OT.

Bucks (3-2):
— Under 3-2
— 3-2 ATS, all as favorite

Timberwolves (3-1):
— under 4-0
— 1-2 ATS as favorite, 1-0 as underdog.

Pelicans (1-4):
— covered last three games, all as an underdog.
— under 4-1, 2-0 at home
— 0-2 SU at home, losing by 20-3 points.

Knicks (3-1):
— 3-1 ATS, all as a favorite.
— over 3-1

Thunder (1-4):
— 2-1 ATS home underdog, 0-2 road dog
— under 2-0 on road, 1-2 at home

Magic (1-4):
— 0-2 ATS at home, 1-2 on road.
— over 4-1
— 0-2 SU at home, losing by 25-9 points. 

76ers (2-2):
— under 3-1
— 2-0 ATS when favored, 0-2 as underdog.

Suns (1-3):
— under 3-1
— 0-2 SU at home, losing by 12-3 points.

Trailblazers (2-2):
— 2-1 ATS as HF, 0-1 as road underdog.

Kings (2-2):
— 0-2 SU at home, 2-0 SU on road, all as underdog.
— under 3-0 last three games.

Spurs (1-3):
— over 3-1; over 3-0 at home, 0-1 on road.
— lost last three games, by 6-10-4 points.

Raptors (2-3):
— 1-3 ATS at home, 1-0 on road.
— under 3-2
— 0-2 in games decided by 8 or less points.

Jazz (3-0):
— won/covered all three games.
— under 2-1
— 2-0 SU at home, winning by 21-12 points.

Wizards (3-1):
— 3-1 ATS, all as an underdog.
— under 3-1

Author: Armadillo Sports

I've been involved in sports my whole life, now just write about them. I like to travel, mostly to Las Vegas- they have gambling there.