DD Lohaus analyzes the Kentucky Derby……

I know I say this every year but man, the Derby came up fast this year….
Sorry to see the weather forecast isn’t ‘rosy’ for tomorrow with an 80% chance of showers. Cooler weather wont dry things out any faster and todays deluge is sure to make a tough race even tougher to handicap.

My feeling is that the track is going to be less than ‘fast’ and I am making my wagers assuming it will be an ‘off’ track.

I don’t believe there are any world-beaters in here; a relatively solid group but no particular standout. Not a bad bunch, just an equally matched one….


Hence: Last race was really good and his time stacks up with everyone in here. My fear is that he peaked in the Sunland and has no more upside. Wet track not a problem

Always Dreaming: Winner of three in a row. Hasn’t necessarily faced the strongest of competitors but has top-notch connections and could be this good.

Classic Empire: Last year’s Juvenile winner is back on track and should be ready to fire his best. Not the best odds to rick in this spot.

Irish War Cry: Wood Memorial was good and bred to like the off track. Two of three Beyer’s over 100. A lot to like.

Practical Joke: Chad Brown seems to always get them ready. Slowly stretching out. Beyer’s a little light but have to respect the connections.

Patch: Sentimental choice but steadily improving. May not be mature enough for this group but is an interesting proposition.

The Bets
$15WPS Hence – Edge in a tough call
$5WPS Always Dreaming – May get loose on the lead; sharp jockey

$2EXBX Hence/Always Dreaming/Classic Empire
$1TRIBX  Hence/Always Dreaming/Classic Empire/Irish War Cry
$2WPS Patch – Sentimental Pick

Author: Armadillo Sports

I've been involved in sports my whole life, now just write about them. I like to travel, mostly to Las Vegas- they have gambling there.