Armadillo Sports

— There were lot of upsets Friday:
Long Beach State (+15) 94, Michigan 86
NC-Greensboro (+14.5) 78, Arkansas 72
Lindenwood (+9.5) 72, Neb-Omaha 70
Tenn-Martin (+8.5) 80, Eastern Kentucky 74
Notre Dame (+7.5) 66, Oklahoma State 64 OT
East Tennessee State (+6.5) 70, Davidson 68

— Myrtle Beach tournament:
Vermont 78, Saint Louis 68
Liberty 83, Wichita State 66

Sunday’s final is Vermont-Liberty, two solid mid-majors.

— Charleston Classic:
Dayton 88, St John’s 81
Houston 76, Utah 66

Sunday’s final is Dayton-Houston, which will feel like March.

— Bad Beat of the Night: Wm & Mary (+7.5) lost 80-71 in overtime to Air Force.

— Villanova 57, Maryland 40
Terps are off to a dismal 1-3 start, shooting 21.6% on the arc.
Villanova led this game 39-15 at halftime. 
It is early in season, but Maryland is turning ball over 21.3% of time (#290).

— Statistical Oddity of the Day:
San Antonio Spurs lost 129-120 at home to Sacramento Friday, so obviously, they were minus-9 for the game.

When Zach Collins was on the floor, the Spurs were +19 (minus-28 without him)
When Victor Wembanyama was on the floor, the Spurs were minus-31 (+22 without him)

For two teammates to have a plus/minus 50 points different in the same game is really, really unusual.

— Word of the Day: continuity- something happening over a period of time without being changed or stopped.

Teams who have the same players over a period of time have an advantage over teams with a lot of new players, as long as the talent levels are similar.

On the college basketball page, I’ll mention continuity a lot; it is important in this era, where kids transfer at the drop of a hat. 

— Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow tore ligaments in his thumb Thursday night, is out for the year, very bad news for 5-5 Cincinnati.

— Last three years, Rams are 0-9 in November; two years ago, they were 0-3 in November, then won the Super Bowl.

— NHL is playing some games in Sweden this week:
Ottawa 5, Detroit 4 OT- Senators blew a 4-0 lead, then won with 0:02 left in OT.
Toronto 3, Detroit 2- William Nylander has 25 points in Detroit’s 16 games. 

They have two more games in Sweden this weekend. 

— San Diego State 79, Saint Mary’s 54
Surprisingly one-sided game.
Aztecs led 34-33 at halftime.
Gaels also lost previous game, at home to Weber State; they were picked to win the WCC, but if they’re better than Gonzaga, WCC might be down a little this year, especially with BYU off to the Big X.

— Grand Canyon 76, San Francisco 72
Entertaining game between two good mid-majors.

— I’m watching the UNLV-Pepperdine game on ESPN+, and there is a commercial for a lawyer in Los Angeles, a younger guy who claims “I put the LIT in litigation!!!”

Very unusual commercial.

— UNLV 82, Pepperdine 68
UNLV has made at least one 3-point shot in their last 1,195 games, every game since the NCAA made the 3-point shot a real thing, 37 years ago. Princeton is the only other team to have a 3-pointer in every game since then; they’ve played fewer games than the Rebels. 

“On November 13, Felix Unger was asked to leave his place of residence; that request came from his wife……..”

So began one of the funniest TV shows ever, The Odd Couple, which ran on TV from 1970-75, then for many, many years on re-runs.

Spent many an hour watching re-runs of Felix and Oscar when I was a teenager; my dad would come home from work and would roll his eyes at how much I enjoyed The Odd Couple and M*A*S*H re-runs, but he would laugh at those shows, too.

So happy Felix Unger Day and remember, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, that’s why they call it gambling. 

Lions 41, Chargers 38
— Lions drove 53 yards, kicked 41-yard FG to win game with 0:02 left.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 30-12-1 ATS overall.
— Lions won/covered six of its last seven games.
— Goff is 63-50-1 as an NFL starter, 19-19-1 with the Lions. 

— Chargers’ first four drives: 16 plays, 60 yards, 3 points.
— Chargers’ last five drives: 53 plays, 385 yards, 35 points.
— Detroit outgained the Chargers, 533-445.
— This year, Bolts are 0-4 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.

Cardinals 25, Falcons 23
— Falcons lost four of their last five games (underdogs 5-0 ATS)
— Falcons were 7-14 on third down, Arizona 3-12.
— since 2017, Atlanta is 5-10 ATS as a road favorite
— Last two games, Atlanta was 17-32 on third down.

— Cardinals drove 70 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 0:02 left.
— QB Murray was 19-32/249 passing in his first start in 11 months.
— Arizona is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
— Murray is now 26-32-1 as an NFL starter; Arizona was 1-13 in his absence.

Seahawks 29, Commanders 26 OT
— Washington tied game on 35-yard TD pass with 0:52 left. 
— Seattle drove 50 yards, kicked GW 43-yard FG with 0:03 left.
— Commanders are 5-0 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Washington team total: 7-3 over; opponents’ team total: over 7-3

— Seattle is 6-0 if it scores 20+ points, 0-3 if it doesn’t.
— Seahawks’ first seven drives: 46 plays, 216 yards, 9 points.
— Seahawks’ last five drives: 33 plays, 258 yards, 20 points.
— Seattle is 17-23-3 ATS in last 43 games as a home favorite (2-2-1 TY)

Browns 33, Ravens 31
— Ravens led 31-17 with 10:00 left in game.
— Browns’ last three drives: 35 plays, 199 yards, 16 points.
— Browns’ team total: over 7-1-1.
— Browns are 4-1 SU since their bye week.

— Cleveland was 8-16 on third down, Ravens 2-8.
— Both QB’s threw a pick-6; Watson’s was on 3rd play of game.
— Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in last seven AFC North home games.
— Last seven games, Ravens outscored foes 125-28 in first half.

Texans 30, Bengals 27
— Texans kicked 38-yard FG with 0:05 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Stroud threw for 356 yards (8.9 yards/attempt)
— Houston won five of its last seven games (5-2 ATS)
— Texans are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. 

— Houston outgained the Bengals, 544-380.
— Cincy trailed 27-17, tied game 27-27 on FG with 1:37 left.
— Loss snaps Cincinnati’s 4-game winning streak.
— Last five games, Bengals are +8 in turnovers. (13-5)

Colts 10, Patriots 6
— Colts drove 75 yards for TD on their opening drive, game’s only TD.
— Indy is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog away from home.
— Colts won/covered four of their five road games TY.  
— Colts allowed 20 or less points in wins, 29+ in losses.

— 3rd game this year New England didn’t score a TD on offense.
— Patriots lost six of their last seven games (1-6 ATS). 
— NE is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-98 without Brady.

49ers 34, Jaguars 3
— 49ers scored 30+ points in all six of their wins.
— 49ers outgained Jacksonville, 437-221.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 13-4 as NFL starter.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
 
— Jaguars’ first four drives: 16 plays, 33 yards, 3 punts, one fumble
— San Francisco led 13-3 at halftime.
— Jags’ first 3 drives in 2nd half: 19 plays, 101 yards, 3 turnovers.
— Jaguars are 0-3 when they score less than 20 points. 

Vikings 27, Saints 19
— Minnesota outgained the Saints, 388-280.
— New Orleans averaged only 4.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last six weeks, Saints outscored foes 77-30 in second half.
— New Orleans is 4-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-4 scoring less than 20.

— Vikings led 24-3 at halftime.
— Vikings’ first six drives: 45 plays, 331 yards, 27 points.
— Minnesota has 11 takeaways in last five games (+6)
— Minnesota won/covered last five games, scoring 19-22-24-31-27 points.

Steelers 23, Packers 19
— Green Bay’s first three drives: 20 plays, 151 yards, 13 points.
— Last six games, Packers were outscored 93-29 in first half.
— Green Bay is 1-7 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Green Bay has 12 giveaways in last six games (minus-7).

— Steelers have been outgained in every game, but they’re 6-3.
— Steelers won/covered four of their last five games.
— Pittsburgh is 6-0 when it scores 17+ points.
— Pitt is 31-16-1 ATS in last 48 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.

Buccaneers 20, Titans 6
— Titans lost four of their last five games.
— Tennessee is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in true road games.
— Titans are 0-6 scoring less than 27 points.
— Tampa Bay outgained the Titans, 340-209.

— Bucs’ first three drives: 12 plays, 39 yards, no points.
— Bucs’ next five drives: 44 plays, 304 yards, 20 points.
— Tampa’s two TD’s were on TD passes of 43-22 yards.
— Under is 7-2 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.

Cowboys 49, Giants 17
— Dallas beat the Giants twice this year, 40-0/49-17.
— Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite (4-0 TY)
— Prescott was 26-35/404 passing, with 4 TD passes.
— Six Dallas wins are by a combined score of 171-50 (37-11 average).

— Giants’ first seven drives: 24 plays, 20 yards, no points.
— Giants were 0-12 on third down, Dallas 6-12.
— Giants are averaging only 259.1 yards/game this season.
— Giants are 1-7 SU/2-5-1 ATS in last eight games, scoring 10.8 ppg.

Raiders 16, Jets 12
— Jets’ first three drives: 25 plays, 103 yards, three field goals.
— Jets rest of game: 38 plays, 262 yards, one field goal.
— Jets’ 6.1 yards/pass attempt was their best this season.
— Jets are 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Las Vegas won last four home games, giving up 13-17-6-12 points.
— Raiders’ team total: under 9-1; opponents’ team total: under 7-3
— Last four games, Las Vegas is 14-47 on third down.
— Under is 8-2 in Raider games this season.

— Brook Lopez plays for the Milwaukee Bucks; he is 35 years old, has been in the NBA for 16 years now. What makes him interesting is how he re-invented his skill set in the middle of his career.

In the first eight years of his career, the 7-foot tall Lopez stayed close to the basket- he was a combined 3 for 31 on 3-pointers.

I’ll repeat that: in years 1-8 of his career, he was 3-31 on the arc.

Then he decided to re-invent himself; since then, Lopez is 791-2,264 on the arc. This is truly remarkable, how an 8-year NBA veteran totally changed his game so he could stay in the NBA.

For his career, Lopez is averaging 16.3 ppg. Shooting is marketable; he is a 79.6% career shooter on the foul line, 34.6% on the arc, 53% inside the arc.

Lopez will earn $25M this year, $23M next year, which will put him over $221M in career earnings. He’s worked very hard to sharpen and increase his skill set. Good for him.

— Here’s a stat for you: NHL teams that have played consecutive nights on road:
6-5 the first night
3-8 the second night

— and another interesting stat: NBA road teams who played the night before are 2-8 ATS:
2-3 if they played on the road the previous night
0-5 if they played at home the previous night

— best NFL teams in the red zone:
5.50 points/drive- Ravens (34 drives)
5.46- Chargers (24 drives)
5.43- Rams (only 21 drives)
5.34- Bills (32 drives)
5.23- Bears (only 22 drives)

— worst NFL teams in the red zone:
2.81- Giants (gave up a TD on defense and a blocked FG TD)
3.78- Vikings (23 drives)
3.95- Jets (only 19 drives)
4.09- Titans (23 drives)
4.15- Jaguars (only 20 drives)

— most TD plays of 20+ yards:
13- Dolphins
10- Lions
8- Vikings, Jaguars
7- Colts
6- Eagles, Bears
5- Commanders

— fewest TD plays of 20+ yards:
0- Ravens, Falcons
1- Panthers, Bengals, Raiders, Giants, Seahawks
2- Browns, Packers, Patriots

— Word of the Day: gimmick— a trick or device intended to attract attention, business and/or publicity.

The NBA’s in-season tournament is most definitely a gimmick.

— Place I usually go to for lunch was closed Friday; they had fire in the kitchen or something like that, so I went somewhere else, a place I used to go to a lot 20 years ago, when I lived near there.

Walk in, and the waitress is arguing with a guy who was eating chicken wings with peanut butter on them. Turns out the guy also works there, but it was funny listening to them argue. She was actually yelling at him; it did look a little gross, but he said he liked it.

There was Harry Chapin music playing when I walked in, a pleasant surprise.

I passed on the chicken wings/peanut butter combo- not my thing.

— Sounds like Deshaun Watson will start at QB for Cleveland Sunday, while rookie Clayton Tune gets his first NFL start for the Cardinals. 

Can’t remember an NFL season with this many unsettled QB situations; teams are playing young QB’s before they’re ready; several other QB’s have gotten hurt. Very difficult year for picking games; they’re all tough, but this season teams seem to be a lot more fragile than usual.

— Dodgers P Clayton Kershaw had shoulder surgery this week, hopes to pitch at some point in 2024, but he is a free agent. Will teams wait until next summer to pursue him? Kershaw is 35 years old; he signed one-year contracts the last two years.

— College basketball starts Monday; how will Purdue bounce back from being only the second #1-seed to lose a first round NCAA Tournament game?

In 2018, Virginia was 31-2, a #1-seed when they got upset 74-54 by UMBC in the first round; not only were they the first #1 seed to lose, they lost by 20. It was stunning, but the Cavaliers came back the next season and won the national title, also as a #1-seed.

Purdue big man Zach Edey is surprisingly still in college, so the Boilermakers should be really good again this year. Maybe this time, his teammates will give him the ball in March.

— From 2018-22, Sean Lewis was the football coach at Kent State; he inherited a 2-10 team, went 2-10 his first season, but then the next four years, he went 22-21— he did a really good job there, making the Golden Flashes competitive.

This season, Lewis resigned at Kent State to become the offensive coordinator at Colorado, an odd decision, but he probably makes a lot more $$$ now. 

Colorado was 1-11 last year, averaging 15.4 points/game; they made a splash in the off-season and hired Deion Sanders as head coach— he had been at I-AA Jackson State. Sanders hired Lewis as his OC, to mentor the Buffs’ quarterback, Sanders’ son Shedeur.

This season, Colorado is 4-4, scoring 32.1 ppg. They’ve lost four of their last five games, but Rome wasn’t built in a day; they’re vastly improved over last year.

Then word comes out this week that Colorado basically demoted Lewis, promoting former NFL head coach Pat Shurmur to co-offensive coordinator— he will work with the offensive line, and presumably, Colorado will run the ball more now. 

The previous OL coach came to Colorado from Kent State with Lewis. It’ll be interesting to see next month, when the regular season ends, if coach Lewis goes back to being a head coach, since his work at Colorado doesn’t seem to be appreciated very much. 

One of my favorite movies was on today, Searching for Bobby Fischer; Joe Mantegna is a sportswriter who is surprised to find out that his 11-year old son is a chess prodigy. It is a great movie: Mantegna, Ben Kingsley, Lawrence Fishburne, William H Macy.

Anyway, when I was in 8th grade 50 years ago, chess was a big deal. Bobby Fischer was a quirky chess grandmaster who was playing Russian Boris Spassky for the world title, and it got a ton of attention— for a couple years in the early 70’s, chess was a big deal.

A friend of my parents had taught me how to play; in May of 1973, there was a tournament of all the Catholic grade schools in Albany County, probably 50 or so kids on a Saturday morning. Two kids from our school went; I had never beaten the other kid. Ever.

So our 8th grade teacher picks us up at the other kid’s house to go to the tournament, but we played a game before he got there, and I beat him. This had never happened before.

We get to the tournament, played in a ratty old gym, and the games begin. I won my first game, but the other kid, who seriously was a much better player than me, he got beat and just like that, he was eliminated. He very rarely played sports as a kid, and the competition apparently wasn’t his thing. I sucked at sports, but enjoyed playing.

Thinking about it, it was a lot like the scenes in this movie; just a bunch of nerdy kids hunched over chess boards, studying their moves.

While my parents’ friend taught me how to play chess, I had my own ideas, which weren’t better ideas, but I was incapable of grinding out moves, playing patterns, the way great players do.

I just played fast, got my queen out as quickly as possible, tried to do damage with the queen, and it often got people off their games, because it was different.

So I win two more games, and now there are a lot fewer kids in the gym; my 4th game, the board is set up with plastic chess pieces. My opponent requests that we switch to a wooden chess set, a classic Bobby Fischer mind game move, which I had no idea of at the time.

He crushed me, not even close and my teacher took the two of us home. I was happy that at least I won a few games— had never played in a tournament before.

The phone rings in our house and it is a nun from the chess tournament; I had lost, but I wasn’t done playing yet, there were still games to be played to determine who won the championship, so my father drove me back to the gym and he had to sit there watching his nerdy kid play chess.

I won two more games, and the whole event came down to this: I was playing this girl in the last game of the tournament. If she won, she won the championship and I finished 3rd.

If I won, the jerk who beat me won the championship and I finished 2nd. (don’t ask, I can’t remember how/why they ran the tournament like this, but they did)

Seriously, I didn’t like that kid after he beat me; I went over to look at the 2nd/3rd place prizes. If the 3rd place prize was good, I was considering losing on purpose so he wouldn’t win the tournament, but the 3rd place prize was cruddy, and the 2nd place prize was this small plastic scroll that at least looked like a trophy, so I tried to win.

(This is where I realize that I was an over-thinker, even at age 13)

Anyway, we sit down and play the last game; my opponent was very nervous; her hand was shaking when she moved her chess pieces. It didn’t take long to beat her, and the jerk won the championship trophy.

50 years later, the small plastic scroll is still hanging in my living room. That was a fun day. 

— Florida Atlantic made a miraculous run to the Final Four last year, then somehow kept both their head coach and all their players, as they move up from Conference USA to the AAC.

AAC lost three teams to the Big X, added six other teams. 

Tulsa went 5-25 last year, then cleaned house; they have only one scholarship player returning.

— San Diego State beat FAU 72-71 in national semi-final, then lost to UConn in the national title game; they lost five 5th-year players from last year’s team, but re-tooled with some transfers and still figure to be prominent in the Mountain West race.

San Jose State had their first winning season since 2011.

Only new coach in Mountain West is Utah State’s Danny Sprinkle, who takes over from Ryan Odom, who bolted to Virginia Commonwealth.

— Atlantic 15 was #13 conference LY, tied for their worst ranking ever- they only got one team into the NCAA’s. VCU had won nine in a row heading into March Madness, but lost 63-51 to Saint Mary’s in their first round game. 

VCU coach Rhoades jumped from VCU to Penn State, a strange decision (Penn State will have an almost all-new roster this year). Penn State is a football school; VCU is a basketball school, you’d think a basketball coach would much rather be there.

— Big 14 hasn’t won a national championship since 2000, when Michigan State won; they didn’t have a team in the Elite 8 the last two years, had only four Sweet 16 teams the last three years. 

Purdue gets big man Zach Edey back; they figure to be very good again.

— Since 2015, five of the 15 ACC basketball teams have made it to a Final Four.

— CAA is now the Coastal Athletic Association, not the Colonial; last year they slipped from the #14 league to the #26 league- they had seven of their teams finish outside the top 300. There is a new CAA team this year; the Campbell Camels.

— Word of the Day: Continuity— the unbroken and consistent existence or operation of something over a period of time.

— BYU has bolted from the WCC to the Big 12, leaving the WCC with nine teams (for now).

Last year, Portland Pilots had players from eight different countries.

— Big X had seven teams in the NCAA’s last year; they add four new teams this year, the year before Texas/Oklahoma bolt to the SEC, then they’ll have 16 teams next year, when lot of the old Pac-12 teams join the league. 

Josh Eilert is interim coach at West Virginia, replacing Hall of Famer Bob Huggins; he’ll try to win enough games to get the interim tag removed.

— Big West was the #15 league LY; after being the #30 league in 2020, they’ve been #15-19-15 the three years since then.

Cal-Northridge hired Andy Newman, the league’s only new coach this year.

Cal-Davis player Drew Carter used to be a quarterback at Colorado; he threw 12 passes for the Buffaloes in 2021. I’m told that Colorado has a new football coach now, and his son is the QB, so Carter is at Cal-Davis playing basketball now.

— Princeton got to the Sweet 16 last year, upsetting Arizona/Missouri; they were the 4th Ivy League team to make the Sweet 16, the first since Cornell in 2010.

When Magic Johnson/Larry Bird played in the Final Four in 1979, one of the other two teams in the Final Four that year was the Penn Quakers.

— Rick Pitino is the new coach at St John’s; he overhauled the roster, with nine players hitting the road, as Pitino added 10 new players, including two guys from the Ivy League.

St John’s hasn’t made the NCAA’s since 2019; they’ve made it twice since 2011, it would be really surprising if Pitino doesn’t make them a perennial top 25 team.

— Tobin Anderson replaced Pitino at Iona; he led Fairleigh Dickinson to the NCAA’s LY, where they upset Purdue.

Iona has been in six of the last seven NCAA Tournaments, so there are big expectations in New Rochelle, but they have only one player back from last year- they added 12 new players. 

Today we’re looking at how NFL offenses do on their first drive of each half; four games for each team, so eight drives for everyone.

First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?
— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).

Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)

Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)

— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.

— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.

— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.

— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.

None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.

First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?
— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)

— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.

— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.

— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.

— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.

— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.

First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.

Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.

— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)

— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.

— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.

— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league. 

Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.

NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation. 

— Its been 20 years since a team won consecutive Super Bowls; can the Chiefs go back/back this season? They’ve been in three of last four Super Bowls, winning twice.

— Eric Bieniemy was the offensive coordinator for those teams, but now he’s moved on to the same job with the Washington Commanders- they are rumors that Bieniemy/Patrick Mahomes didn’t get along too well, and we know who wins those battles. 

So now Bieniemy is the OC for a team with a 2nd-year QB who started one game last year- Sam Howell. Howell made his first career start in the last game of his rookie year, just like Patrick Mahomes did.

— Since 1995, only one time has the Super Bowl loser gotten back to the Super Bowl the next season; can the Philadelphia Eagles break that cold spell?

By the way, the last 20 years, the Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year. 

— Three teams (Colts, Panthers, Texans) are expected to start rookie QB’s this week; two of those three teams also have rookie head coaches, the third head coach (Frank Reich) is in his first year with that team. 

— Last seven years, Indianapolis Colts have started a different QB every year in Week 1:
2017— Scott Tolzien
2018— Andrew Luck
2019— Jacoby Brissett
2020— Philip Rivers (he started against them in Week 1, 2019)
2021— Carson Wentz
2022— Matt Ryan
2023— Anthony Richardson

Colts haven’t won in Week 1 since 2013; they tied Houston LY, as 7-point favorites.

— Detroit Lions are favored to win the NFL North; they’ve been in the playoffs three times in this century, with last time in 2016. Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. Last time Detroit won this division was 1993; would you bet on them this year?

— Sean Payton is the new coach in Denver, where his #1 project is to revive Russell Wilson’s career. Broncos’ QB coach is Davis Webb, who seven months ago was the #3 QB for the Giants- they started him the last regular season game last year, then he retired. 

So the most valuable player on your team is being coached by a 28-year old first time coach, who started one NFL game. This should be interesting.

— Dallas Cowboys told OC Kellen Moore to take a hike, after going 13-6 LY; HC Mike McCarthy will call plays now. About 10 minutes after Dallas fired Moore, the Chargers hired him as their new OC (actually it was the next day), 

Chargers’ OC last year was Joe Lombardi, who now works for Denver; Charger-Bronco games figure to be interesting this year.

— Word of the Day— Mentor— an experienced and trusted adviser.

— NFL Trend of the Day— Over last 10 years, Cincinnati Bengals are 45-30-6 ATS as an underdog.

— Jordan Love is the new QB in Green Bay; since 1992, the Packers’ starting QB has been either Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. No pressure there, following those two Hall of Famers.

Think about the contrast:
Packers have had two #1 QB’s the last 31 years.
Colts have had seven #1 QB’s the last seven years.

— You may have heard; Aaron Rodgers has moved on to the Jets, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2010. Jets already have a good defense; this should be interesting.

— Los Angeles Rams are taking their salary cap medicine this year; their defense may be the youngest one in the NFL this century. They still have Aaron Donald on the line, but this is a very young defense.

Did they fix the offensive line? If so, they can run the ball enough to take the pressure off that defense, or Matthew Stafford can try to outscore teams.

— New England went 8-9 LY, playing a 2nd-year QB; Patriots’ offensive coaches were terrible. Matt Patricia, Joe Judge; are you kidding me? This year, New England brought Bill O’Brien back to be Jones’ QB guru; Patriots haven’t won a playoff game (0-1) since tom Brady left town. 

Hmmm……..

— Lamar Jackson got a boatload of $$$ from the Ravens, and they changed OC’s, to find a more explosive offensive for Jackson to run; now he has to be available in December. 

In 2021, Jackson didn’t play after Week 13.
Last year, Jackson didn’t play after Week 12.

One of the most important abilities is availability; Ravens are 1-3 in his playoff starts, scoring 13 ppg. Now is the time for Jackson to produce and earn all that $$$. 

— Arizona Cardinals have an over/under win total of 3.5 this year; no other team has a win total under 6.5 wins- they’ve already traded a couple players away, for draft picks. Kyler Murray won’t be ready to start the season; Joshua Dobbs (0-2 as an NFL starter) gets the nod this week for the Redbirds, against Washington. 

— NFL Sunday Ticket switches from DirecTV to YouTube TV; I made the switch myself back in January, so I’m looking forward to seeing how they do it. Apparently, four games on one screen will be their thing. Baseball package on YouTube has been fine, so I’m optimistic. 

— There is a hurricane headed towards southern California Sunday/Monday, so MLB has moved three of Sunday’s games, and turned them into day/night doubleheaders on Saturday.

Marlins-Dodgers, Arizona-Padres and Rays-Angels are the series affected by the changes.

— By my count, there are 68 college football teams in the Power 5 conferences. Of those 68 teams, 36 of them are slated to start a QB this season who began his college career somewhere else, then transferred to that school (not counting junior college transfers).

Information is courtesy of the Phil Steele college football magazine, an excellent resource:

SEC
Alabama— Buchner, 3 starts at Notre Dame
Auburn— Thorne, 25 starts at Michigan State
Florida— Mertz, 32 starts at Wisconsin
Kentucky— Leary, 26 starts at NC State.
LSU— Daniels, 29 starts at Arizona State
Ole Miss— Dart, 6 games at USC
South Carolina— Rattler, 17 starts at Oklahoma
Tennessee— Milton, 16 games at Michigan.

Big 14
Illinois— Altmyer, one start at Ole Miss
Indiana— Jackson, 3 games at Tennessee
Iowa— McNamara, 16 starts at Michigan
Nebraska— Sims, 23 starts at Georgia Tech
Northwestern— Bryant, 11 starts at Cincinnati
Purdue— Card, 5 starts at Texas
Wisconsin— Mordecai, 24 starts at SMU

ACC
Georgia Tech— King, 7 starts at Texas A&M
Louisville— Plummer, 12 starts at Cal
NC State— Armstrong, 30 starts at Virginia
Pitt— Jurkovec, 24 starts at Boston College
Virginia— Muskett, 23 starts at I-AA Monmouth
Virginia Tech— Drones, 5 games at Baylor

Big X
BYU— Slovis, 38 starts at USC/Pitt.
UCF— Plumlee, 9 starts at Ole Miss
Cincinnati— Jones, 7 starts at Arizona State
Houston— Smith, 8 starts at Texas Tech
Oklahoma— Gabriel, 26 starts at UCF
Oklahoma State— Bowman, 26 games at Texas Tech/Michigan
Texas Tech— Shough, 7 starts at Oregon.

Pac-12
Arizona— DeLaura, 15 starts at Washington State
Arizona State— Pyne, 10 starts at Notre Dame
California— Jackson, 7 games at TCU
Oregon— Nix, 34 starts at Auburn
Oregon State— Uiagalelei, 28 starts at Clemson
USC— Williams, 7 starts at Oklahoma
Washington— Penix, 17 starts at Indiana.

— Movie of the Day— The Natural (1984)— An unknown ballplayer in his 30’s comes seemingly out of nowhere to become a big-time major leaguer.

Robert Redford plays Roy Hobbs, Wilford Brimley is manager of the New York Knights, Robert Duvall is a sportswriter trying to uncover Hobbs’ past. Kim Basinger, Darren McGavin, Barbara Hershey, Glenn Close are also in the movie— excellent cast.

Baseball scenes were filmed at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo, where the Bills played before they built Rich Stadium in Orchard Park. 

— NFL Trend of the Day— Last three years, over is 16-6-1 in Raiders’ home games.

— White Sox SS Tim Anderson got into a fight with Cleveland on August 5; MLB suspended him for six games, but he didn’t start serving the suspension until Friday night. Why wait so long? Appeals should be the next morning, via Zoom.

— San Diego Padres this season:
6-19 in one-run games.
13-15 in two-run games.
39-30 in games decided by 3+ runs.

— Washington Commanders named Sam Howell their starting QB for Week 1 against Arizona; Howell started the last game last season, his rookie year— he started for three years in college at North Carolina.

Last seven years, Washington will now have started seven different QB’s in Week 1.

— Indiana Hoosiers basketball coach Mike Woodson got a $1M raise; he will now make $4.2M a year, ranking him behind Tom Izzo/Brad Underwood amongst Big 14 coaches. 

— Rays 9, Angels 6 (10)
Angels led 5-1 after three innings.
Rays had runners on 1st/3rd, no one out in top of 9th, in a 6-6 game, but then hit into a weird triple play and didn’t score.
Raley got the game-winning hit; he struck out his first four times before that.

— Nationals 8, Phillies 7
Lorenzen no-hit Washington last week; he gave up 7 runs in 3.1 IP in this game.

— Braves 4, Giants 0— Atlanta hasn’t given up a run since the 9th inning Monday night.

— Padres 4, Arizona 0— Game was scoreless until San Diego scored four runs in bottom of the 8th; Kim got the go-ahead hit, then Machado added a 2-run tater.

— Marlins 11, Dodgers 3— Sandy Alcantara ends the Dodgers’ 11-game win streak.

— Seattle 2, Astros 0— Mariners win despite going 0-17 with runners in scoring position; they got solo homers from Rodriguez, Ford.

— Reds 1, Toronto 0— Rookie Christian Encarnacion-Strand homered in the 9th inning; not many games with a total of 10.5 end 1-0. 

Air Force
— Last four years, Air Force is 34-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has to replace a 3-year starter.
— Air Force has been favored in 34 of its last 45 games.
— In his career, Calhoun is 35-26-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.

Boise State
— Last nine years, Boise State is 86-28 SU.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Last four years, Boise is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 26-14-1 ATS in conference games.
— Last three years, Boise is 7-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 2-1 SU in bowls, also had 2 bowls cancelled.

Colorado State
— Last five years, Colorado State is 14-38 SU.
— During those five years, Rams are minus-30 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 46 starts back on offensive line, but only one starter is back.
— soph QB Millen has 10 career starts
— Since 2017, Colorado State is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rams lost their last four bowls, giving up 41.3 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was in 2013, 48-45 over Washington State.

Fresno State
— Last six years, Bulldogs are 49-24 SU.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at Central Florida.
— Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Tedford is 42-31 ATS as a home favorite.
— Fresno won its last four bowl games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— Tedford was Aaron Rodgers’ college coach at Cal. 

Hawai’i
— last three years, Rainbows are 14-21 SU.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 67 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 13 career starts. 
— Since 2019, Rainbows are 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2014, Hawai’i is 7-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, Hawai’i is 11-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Hawai’i won three of its last four bowl games.

Nevada
— Nevada was 2-10 LY, after four straight winning seasons.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 38 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 12 games at Colorado.
— Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 11-17 ATS outside the Mountain West.
— Since 2015, Nevada is 36-28 ATS inside the Mountain West.
— Since 2016, Nevada is 15-21 ATS coming off a win.
— Nevada is 3-2 SU in last five bowls, wasn’t favored in any of them.

— Movie of the Day— Shopgirl (2005)— Story about a love triangle between a bored salesgirl, a wealthy businessman and an aimless young man.

Steve Martin is the businessman; he wrote the novel this movie is based on. Claire Danes is the salesgirl, Bridgette Wilson-Sampras is one of her co-workers— she is married in real life to Pete Sampras, the tennis star.

This is a good movie, a nice movie, little sad at times; Steve Martin is a brilliant guy, this is another example of that. 

— NFL Trend of the Day— Since 2016, Jets are 17-29-2 ATS as a road underdog.

UNLV
— Last nine years, UNLV is 29-74 SU.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— soph QB has 12 career starts.
— New coach Odom is 17-11 ATS in home games, 6-13 ATS on road.
— Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.
— Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.

New Mexico
— Last six years, Lobos are 15-52 SU/19-47-1 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 25 games at UAB.
— Since 2015, New Mexico is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Lobos are 14-34 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two years, New Mexico was 2-13-1 ATS in Mountain West games.
— New Mexico hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016.

San Diego State
— Last eight years, Aztecs are 74-30 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Last eight years, San Diego State is 16-10-1 ATS as road favorite.
— Since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Aztecs are 18-32 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)

San Jose State
— last 3 years, Spartans are 19-13 SU (27-59 from 2013-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i. 
— Since 2014, Spartans are 16-24 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Brennan, San Jose is 17-13-1 ATS at home.
— Last five years, San Jose is 23-16 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Spartans lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.

Utah State
— Utah State is 17-10 SU in two years under Anderson.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; very inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 25-14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over last 10 years, Aggies are 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— In 2018, Aggies were +14 in turnovers; since then, they’re minus-17
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.

Wyoming
— Last three years, Cowboys are 16-16 SU/15-16-1 ATS
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Under Bohl, Wyoming is 30-21-1 ATS at home.
— Since 2016, Cowboys are 21-14 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2018, Wyoming is 6-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games. 

Week 1
Thursday
Lions (0-0) @ Chiefs (0-0)
— Last two years, Detroit is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-21-1 SU, 23-10-1 ATS.
— Detroit is 5-16-1 SU in last 22 road openers.
— Last seven years, Lions are 4-3 ATS in road openers
— Last five years, Detroit is 12-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Goff is 56-48-1 as an NFL starter, 12-18-1 with the Lions.
— Over 7-1 in their last eight road openers
— Last time Goff played vs Chiefs, his Rams won 54-51 Monday night tilt.

— Last 20 years, Super Bowl champ is 11-6-3 ATS in Week 1 the following year.
— Last three years, KC is 10-13 ATS as a home favorite.  
— Last seven years, Chiefs scored 33+ points in all their Week 1 games.
— Kansas City is 7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 75-19 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in KC home games.

— Chiefs lead series, 9-5.
— This is Lions’ first visit to Arrowhead since 2003.
— Last time Lions beat KC was 2011, 48-3 in the Motor City. 

Sunday
Texans (0-0) @ Ravens (0-0)
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Last 3 years, Texans are 10-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— However, they’re 4-9-1 ATS as a road dog outside AFC South, 6-2 in division.
— Houston covered five of last six road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
— Mills is 5-19-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston road games.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.

— Last seven years, Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 1
— Last two years, Baltimore is 3-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home openers
— Last three years, scored 38-36-38 points in home openers
— Lamar Jackson is 46-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last two years, Ravens are 18-16 SU, with a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.

— Ravens are 10-2 against Houston.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texans are 0-6 in Baltimore, losing last visit 41-7 in 2019. 

Bengals (0-0) @ Browns (0-0)
— QB Burrow hurt his calf in preseason; check status.
— Cincinnati lost its last four road openers.
— Bengals went to OT in Week 1 the last two years (1-1)
— Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Last 2 years, Bengals were 22-11 SU, 22-9-2 ATS.
— Last 2 years, Cincy is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2 years, Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games. 

— Browns have had one winning season (2020) since 2007.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Cleveland scored 35-31-30 points in their home opener.
— Last year was first time since 2004 that Browns won in Week 1.
— Last nine years, Cleveland is 9-17-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts (3-0 LY)
— Over is 7-2 in Browns’ last seven home openers.
— Watson is 32-30 as an NFL starter, was 3-3 for Cleveland LY.

— Browns won five of last six games against Cincinnati.
— Bengals lost their last five visits to Cleveland. 

Buccaneers (0-0) @ Vikings (0-0)
— Despite being 8-9, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 6-13-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bucs are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Buccaneers were 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games LY.
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Last two years, under is 11-5 in Tampa Bay road games.
— Bucs’ new OC Dave Canales spent last 12 years in Seattle.

— Minnesota made playoffs LY, for first time since 2019.
— Vikings won/covered 7 of their last 8 home openers.
— Vikings were 11-0 SU LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2014, Vikings are 23-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.
— Last three years, over is 18-7 in Minnesota home games.
— Cousins is 73-66-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Vikings’ new defensive coordinator is former Dolphins’ HC Brian Flores.

— Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Bucs lost last visit to Minnesota, 34-17 in 2017. 

Titans (0-0) @ Saints (0-0)
— Titans were 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2015.
— Tennessee lost its last seven games (1-5-1 ATS) last year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road openers.
— Last 3 years, Tennessee is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tannehill is 80-68 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Since 2015, Titans are 19-14-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Titans are 7-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— New Orleans was 7-10 LY, their first losing season since 2016.
— Saints are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans won last four years in Week 1, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Saints are 13-15 ATS as a home favorite
— Since 2018, NO is 18-11-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, under is 10-7 in Saints’ home games.
— LY, New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)

— Tennessee leads series, 9-6-1
— Road team won four of last five meetings.
— Titans won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.

Panthers (0-0) @ Falcons (0-0)
— New coach, rookie QB usually suggests a losing season.
— Panthers have had five straight losing seasons.
— Reich was 41-35-1 coaching the Colts (1-2 in playoffs)
— Carolina went 8-3 ATS in last 11 games LY, after they fired the coach.
— Last two years, Panthers were 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 5-4 ATS in last nine road openers.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Last four years, Panthers are 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Last 3 years, dogs were 19-2 ATS in Carolina games when spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Falcons have also had five straight losing seasons.
— Atlanta is 14-20 SU in two years under Arthur Smith.
— Seven of their last 10 games LY were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2004, Atlanta is 15-4 ATS in home openers.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Ridder was 2-2 as a starter last year, his rookie season.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.

— Teams split their season series (3-3) the last three years.
— Panthers won two of last three visits to Atlanta.

Jaguars (0-0) @ Colts (0-0)
— Jaguars made playoffs LY for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jags were first team EVER to win playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jacksonville was +6 in turnovers LY; they were minus-20 in 2021.
— Last five years, Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-12-2 ATS on artificial turf.
— Lawrence is 12-22 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Over last decade, Jaguars are 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pederson is 56-48-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).

— This will be 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 games SU last year.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Indy is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— No idea which QB starts; Minshew has a 8-16 record as a starter.
— If rookie QB Richardson starts, rookie QB/new coach isn’t great.
— Last three years, under is 14-10 in Colts’ home games.
— Colts were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+14/+10 previous two years)

— Home side won last 11 series games.
— Jaguars lost their last five visits to Indy (1-2-2 ATS, all as underdogs)

49ers (0-0) @ Steelers (0-0)
— San Francisco won 12 of its last 13 games (10-3 ATS) LY.
— 49ers were +14 in turnovers last year (minus-15 in 2020-21)
— Last two years, SF were 23-11 in regular season, 4-2 in playoffs.
— Since 2016, 49ers are 11-12 ATS as a road favorite.
— SF is 3-4 SU/ATS in its last seven road openers.
— 49ers are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— 49ers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games vs AFC opponents.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 7-1 as NFL starter.

— Steelers went 9-8/9-7-1 the last two seasons.
— Pittsburgh won/covered six of its last seven games LY.
— Since 2018, Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Pitt is 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Since 2015, Steelers are 20-15 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Steelers are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five home openers.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 7-5 as an NFL starter.

— Home team won last five series games.
— 49ers lost last two visits here; their last win in Pittsburgh was in 1996. 

Cardinals (0-0) @ Commanders (0-0)
— New GM, new coach, different QB for Arizona in Week 1.
— Cardinals lost seven in row, 11 of their last 13 games SU (4-6 ATS in last 10).
— Kyler Murray is still recovering from a knee injury; Colt McCoy is starter.
— 37-year old McCoy is 11-25 as an NFL starter (4-4 since 2020)
— Last five years, Cardinals are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Arizona was 1-13 SU last year when it scored less than 29 points.
— Cardinals won their last three road openers, covered last four.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.

— 2022 5th-round pick QB Howell gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Howell won his first NFL start 26-6 against the Cowboys.
— LY, Washington was 5-1 when it scored 23+ points, 3-7-1 if they didn’t.
— Last five years, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under was 10-3 in Washington’s last 13 games last year.
— Under is 17-6 in Commanders’ last 23 home games.
— Washington is 3-8 SU/ATS in last eleven home openers.

— Washington won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Cardinals lost last eight visits here; their last win in Washington was in 1998.

Raiders (0-0) @ Broncos (0-0)
— Last three years, Raiders are -7/-9/-11 in turnovers.
— Raiders blew five double digit leads in 2nd half last year.
— Garoppolo is 40-17 as an NFL starting QB.
— Garoppolo worked with coach McDaniels in New England.
— Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Las Vegas is 6-4 ATS as an AFC West road dog.
— Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— Raiders were 3-8 SU LY in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.

— Sean Payton (152-89 as NFL HC) makes his Denver debut here.
— Denver lost 11 of its last 14 games last year.
— Last 8 years with the Saints, Payton was 20-29-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, Broncos are 7-15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Denver is 5-3-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Denver is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home openers.
— Last two years, under was 10-6 in Broncos’ home games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-71-1 as an NFL starter.

— Las Vegas won last six series games.
— Raiders won last three visits to Denver (won 22-16 in OT LY)

Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-0)
— Last 3 years, Miami was 10-6/9-8/9-8……0-1 in playoffs.
— Miami was 9-8 LY despite a minus-8 turnover ratio.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over was 7-2 in Miami road games last season.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 12-7 ATS on artificial turf.
— Last 2 years, Miami is 4-6 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Tagovailoa is 21-13 as an NFL starter.

— Chargers made playoffs LY, lost 31-30, blowing 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.
— Kellen Moore comes in from Dallas to be new OC.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-12-7 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Herbert is 25-25 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers started the last four seasons 1-0 SU.
— Chargers are 2-4 ATS in last six home openers.
— Bolts’ last three home openers stayed under the total.

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Dolphins won last three visits to San Diego/LA.

Eagles (0-0) @ Patriots (0-0)
— Last 20 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 25-13 SU.
— Last 3 years, Eagles are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five road openers.
— Hurts is 25-13 as an NFL starter.
— Philly is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.

— Since Brady left, NE is 25-25 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last three years, Patriots are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Mac Jones is 16-16 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots brought Bill O’Brien in to be Jones’ new QB guru.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS last ten games vs NFC opponents.
— New England is 4-8 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Last year was first time since 2002 NE was an underdog in its home opener.
— Under is 23-17-1 in New England’s last 41 home games.

— New England won five of last seven series games.
— Two of those games (1-1) were Super Bowls.
— Eagles are 2-3 in Foxboro; their last visit here was in 2015. 

Rams (0-0) @ Seahawks (0-0)
— Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
— Rams were 1-5-1 ATS as a road dog LY (7-3-1 from ’17-’21)
— Big ?? For Rams; did they improve their offensive line?
— Stafford is 93-104-1 as an NFL starter, 19-11 with the Rams.
— Rams are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 NFC West road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in season openers.
— Rams covered four of last five road openers.

— Since 2003, Seahawks are 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS in home openers.
— Last two years, Seattle is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Seahawks are 7-10-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Geno Smith is 22-29 as an NFL starter, 10-11 with Seattle.
— Under Carroll, Seattle is 41-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in Seahawks’ last dozen home openers.
— Last three years, under is 15-10 in Seattle home games.
— Seattle was 16-19 last two years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.

— Rams are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but lost 27-23/19-16 LY.
— Rams won three of their last four visits to Seattle. 

Packers (0-0) @ Bears (0-0)
— Jordan Love lost his only NFL start 13-7 at Kansas City in 2021.
— Last four years, Packers are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— GB is 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 8-12 ATS in last 20 NFC North road games.
— Green Bay is 2-4 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last eight road openers.
— This is 5th year in a row that Green Bay opens on the road (2-2 L4)
— Green Bay had three losing seasons in the last six years.

— Bears were 9-25 SU/12-20-2 ATS the last two years.
— Fields is 5-20 SU as an NFL starter; prospect or suspect?
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Chicago is 1-8 ATS last nine NFC North home games.
— Bears are 13-9-2 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chicago won four of its last five home openers.
— Bears’ last six home openers stayed under the total.
— Chicago was 3-14 LY; their turnover ratio was only minus-2.

— Green Bay won/covered last eight games in this rivalry.
— Packers are 17-2 SU in last 19 series games.
— Green Bay’s last loss here was in 2018. 

Cowboys (0-0) @ Giants (0-0)
— McCarthy takes over as play-caller for departed OC Moore.
— Last two years, Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 16-11-1 in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Dallas is 6-6 SU/9-3 ATS in last dozen road openers.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road openers.
— QB Prescott is 63-40 as an NFL starter.
— Last six years, Dallas is 11-7 ATS in NFC East road games.

— Giants made playoffs LY for first time since 2016.
— Since 2018, Giants are 9-19 ATS as a home dog (2-1 LY)
— Last five years, Big Blue is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Daniel Jones is 22-32-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last 11 years, Giants are 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS in last 11 home openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Giants were +1 in turnovers LY (minus-25 from 2019-21)
— Last four years, under is 23-9-1 in their home games.

— Dallas won four in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Cowboys won/covered five of last six visits to Giants Stadium.
— This is 7th time in last 12 years these teams met in Week 1.

Bills (0-0) @ Jets (0-0)
— Last four years, Bills are 37-18 in regular season, 4-4 in playoffs.
— Last four years, Buffalo is 13-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Last five years, Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Bills are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Josh Allen is 56-28 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven road openers.
— Bills are 7-3 ATS in last ten Week 1 games.

— Last 7 years, Jets are 34-80 SU; they have new QB now, guy named Rodgers.
— Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Rodgers is 158-85-1 as an NFL starter, 11-10 in playoff games.
— Last two years, Jets are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Jets are 4-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last three years, Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Jets are 4-8 SU in last 12 home openers, 7-3 ATS in last ten.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home openers.

— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won four of last five series games in New Jersey. 

Baylor
— last four years, Baylor is 31-19 SU (+33 in turnovers)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— junior QB has 15 starts.
— last two years, Bears are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Baylor is 8-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.

Brigham Young
— 29-9 SU last three years; this is their first year in Big X.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis has thrown 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— under Sitake, BYU is 23-30 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2015, BYU is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

Central Florida
— Last six years, UCF is 59-17 SU, 37-37-2 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line- good depth
— senior QB Plumlee has 22 starts between UCF/Ole Miss. 
— last 10 years, Knights are 12-23 ATS coming off a loss.
— in his career, Malzahn is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, 9-14 as a road dog. 
— Central Florida is 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.

Cincinnati
— Last 4 years, Bearcats were 53-11 SU/33-30-1 ATS
— New coach Satterfield was 26-24 SU/26-22-2 ATS at Louisville.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— last five years, Cincinnati was 18-12-1 ATS as a home favorite. 
— in his career, Satterfield is 16-8 ATS as road favorite, 9-13-2 as a road dog.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls; favorites covered 4 of their last 5 bowls.

Houston
— went 20-7 last two years, after going 7-13 in 2019-20.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 140 starts back on offensive line- should be improved.
— junior QB Smith started 8 games at Texas Tech
— in his career, Holgorsen is 27-42-1 ATS in home games.
— under Holgorsen, Houston is 5-14 ATS at home.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five bowl games.

Iowa State
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers has withdrawn from school (gambling charges)— Looks like starting QB will be a freshman.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— Last five years, Cyclones are 11-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Iowa State is 11-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2015, Iowa State is 29-15-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).

Kansas
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 18 games.
— last 10 years, Kansas is 21-32-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jayhawks were 3-0 as a home favorite LY (4-11 from 2013-21)
— last four years, Jayhawks are 13-21-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)

— Movie of the Day: Tequila Sunrise (1988)— A drug dealer in Los Angeles tries to go straight, but his past and his underworld connections bring him into the focus of the DEA, the Mexican feds and the Mexican drug cartels.

Mel Gilson is the drug dealer, Kurt Russell/JT Walsh are two of the cops trying to curtail drug dealing, Michelle Pfeiffer owns a restaurant where everyone seems to hang out. Raul Julia is very good in this movie as a Mexican drug dealer.

Very good movie; Gibson/Russell characters are old friends, which complicates things.

— College Football Trend of the Day: Since 2016, Arizona State is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.

Kansas State
— under Klieman, K-State is 30-20 SU, 32-18 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 108 starts back on offensive line; all 5 starters are back
— junior QB has started 15 games.
— under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Wildcats are 3-2 SU in last five bowls (favorite covered last four)

Oklahoma
— Sooners were 6-7 LY, after going 97-22 the previous nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— junior QB Gabriel started 12 games LY, also started at UCF
— UCF visits Norman October 21st.
— last two years, Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 10 years, Sooners are 23-15 ATS in non-conference games.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)

Oklahoma State
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Under Gundy, Cowboys are 47-31-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, OSU is 20-6 ATS outside the Big X.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points. 

Texas
— Texas is 13-12 last two years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-4 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 9-18 ATS as road dog, 10-5 as home dog.
— Since 2016, Texas is 17-7 ATS outside the Big X. 
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.

TCU
— TCU was 13-2 LY, after going 23-24 from 2018-21.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— Horned Frogs will have a new, less experienced QB this year.
— since 2020, TCU is 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2014, TCU is 18-12-2 ATS outside the Big X.
— last ten years, Horned Frogs are 17-25 ATS coming off a loss.
— TCU won 3 of last 4 bowls, but lost national title game 65-7 in January.

Texas Tech
— Tech went 7-6/8-5 last 2 years (43-54 from 2013-20)
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— last four years, Tech is 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— last two years, Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.

West Virginia
— WVU is 22-25 SU/ATS in four years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— whoever QB is will be inexperienced.
— Under Brown, WVU is 13-16 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Brown, WVU is 6-13 ATS coming off win, 14-10 off a loss.
— West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in its last five bowls

Akron
— Last five years, Akron is 9-45 SU/20-34 ATS.
— Zips were 2-10 LY, but covered five of last six games. 
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 64 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB; started 10 games LY, threw for 2,609 yards.
— Akron was 7-4 ATS as an underdog last year.
— last four years, Zips are 2-10 ATS outside the MAC.
— Zips are 1-2 in bowls in school history; last one was in 2017.

Ball State
— Ball State has one winning season (2020) the last nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 67 starts back on OL, three starters are back.
— senior QB started 12 games at Texas State, also played 3 years at Arkansas State.
— under Neu, Ball State is 10-18 ATS as a favorite.
— under Neu, Ball State is 4-11 ATS as a home underdog, 18-14 as a road dog.
— last four years, Cardinals are 17-14 ATS in MAC games. 
— Ball State is 1-8 all-time in bowls, 1-4 SU/ATS in last five.

Bowling Green
— Falcons went bowling LY, but have had 7 straight losing seasons.  
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.  
— under Loeffler, BG is 7-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. 
— last three years, Falcons are 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2016, Falcons are 5-14-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)

Buffalo
— Bulls were 11-14 last two years; they were 24-10 from 2018-20. 
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY, threw for school record 3,030 yards.
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.  
— under Linguist, Buffalo is 3-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— since 2013, Buffalo is 11-19-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Buffalo won its last three bowls, after losing its first three.

Central Michigan
— Chippewas were minus-18 in turnovers in LY’s 4-8 season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line.
— unclear who QB will be: Bauer is more of a passer, Emanuel a runner. 
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-4 ATS as an underdog.
— under McElwain, Chippewas are 13-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2017, Central Michigan is 19-13 ATS coming off a win. 
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/ATS in last five bowls; they were underdog in all five.

Eastern Michigan
— Eagles were 7-6/9-4 last two years, after going 32-61 from 2013-20.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith was 3-1 as starter LY, before he got hurt. 
— under Creighton, EMU is 7-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Creighton, EMU is 29-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Eagles are 13-9 ATS in MAC games.
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.

Kent State
— Kent went 22-21 last 4 years; their coach bolted to be an assistant at Colorado.
— no starters back on offense, 4 on defense- maybe that is why the coach left.
— only 5 starts back on offensive line
— QB room added transfers from K-State/Purdue.
— new coach was RB’s coach at Minnesota the last six years. 
— last 10 years, Flashes are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. 
— last nine years, Flashes are 19-26 ATS as a road underdog.
— Kent State is 1-3 in bowl games, with lone win in 2019. 

Miami OH
— Miami had +11 turnover ratio LY, was still only 6-7.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 48 starts back on offensive line; 2 starters bolted to big $$$ teams.
— senior QB has 25 career starts.
— In nine years under Martin, Miami is 17-22 ATS as a favorite.
— Last six years, Miami is 17-23 ATS outside the MAC.
— Last three years, Red Hawks are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Miami is 2-3 AU/5-0 ATS in its last five bowls.

Northern Illinois
— In four years under Hammock, NIU is 17-27 SU/22-22 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line- they’re supposed to be good.
— QB’s all got hurt LY; all three of them are back. Lombardi has 16 starts.   — under Hammock, NIU is 12-4 ATS as a road dog, 10-18 in all other games.
— Huskies are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Last three years, NIU is 2-12 ATS in home games.
— NIU lost its last seven bowls, giving up 45.4 ppg in last five. 
— Huskies’ last bowl win? 38-20 over Arkansas State in 2011.

Ohio U
— Ohio was 10-4 last season, after going 3-9 in 2021.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— since 2015, Bobcats are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2019, Ohio U is 7-12 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last four years, Bobcats are 4-10 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.

Toledo
— Last three years, Toledo is 20-13 SU/15-18 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— last four years, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as home favorites.
— under Candle, Toledo is 4-10 ATS as road underdogs.
— since 2018, Rockets are 11-20 ATS coming off a win. 
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.

Western Michigan
— WMU was 5-7 last year, their first losing season since 2013.
— 8 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 22 games at Old Dominion; LY’s QB’s also return.
— new HC Taylor was OC at Louisville last year.
— since 2017, Broncos are 5-8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, Broncos are 18-26-2 ATS in MAC games.
— WMU is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls, after losing first six bowls.

Boston College
— BC was 3-9 last year, their worst season since 2015.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line- expected to be much better.
— soph QB started 4 games LY: other QB transferred to Pitt.
— under Hafley, Eagles are 4-7 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2017, BC is 14-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— BC had 2 of last three bowls cancelled (2018/2021)
— Eagles lost last two bowls 27-20/38-6; their last bowl win was 2016. 

Clemson
— Last 10 years, Clemson is 121-18 SU.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— since 2020, Tigers are 8-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— last five years, Clemson is 30-12-1 ATS in ACC games.
— last two years, Clemson is 2-8 ATS out of conference
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.

Duke
— Duke was 9-4 LY, after going 10-24 from 2019-21.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— last two years, Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS as home favorites. 
— last three years, Duke is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog. 
— weird stat; last 10 years, Duke is 33-10 ATS outside the ACC.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014. 

Florida State
— FSU went 10-3 last year; from 2018-21, Seminoles were 19-27.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; an extremely experienced OL.
— senior QB has 26 career starts.
— since 2014, FSU is 20-28 ATS as a home favorite.  
— in his career, Norvell is 13-6 ATS as aa road favorite.
— Florida State won three of its last four bowls SU.  

Georgia Tech
— Tech has had 4 straight losing seasons (14-32 SU/17-28-1 ATS)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; 4 starters are back
— Tech’s head coach Key was on OL coach at Alabama.
— soph QB started 7 games in 3 years at Texas A&M.
— since 2018, Tech is 3-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
— since 2015, GT is 2-10 ATS as a road favorite.  
— since 2018, Tech is 4-14 ATS outside the ACC. 
— Tech is 3-2 in last five bowls; their last bowl was in 2018. 

Louisville
— New coach Brohm played QB at Louisville from 1989-93.
— Brohm is 66-44 SU as a HC, at Western Kentucky/Purdue
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB Plummer threw for 3,095 yards at Cal LY.  
— in his coaching career, Brohm is 25-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2019, Cardinals are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Louisville is 15-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Louisville is 2-3 in its last five bowls.

Miami
— Miami was 5-7 LY, their first losing season since 2014.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line; should be much better TY.
— junior QB has 18 career starts.
— since 2017, Miami is 13-21 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Cristobal is 14-26-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Miami is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami lost its last six bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.

North Carolina
— UNC is 30-22 last 4 years under Mack Brown (5-18 the 2 years before that)
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Maye started 14 games LY, is a Heisman contender.
— last three years, Tar Heels are 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, UNC is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— last two years, Carolina is 7-10 ATS in ACC games.
— UNC lost its last three bowls, giving up 35.7 ppg.

NC State
— Last three years, Wolfpack was 25-12 SU/19-18 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia; he’s good.
— under Doeren, State is 9-17-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— last three years, Wolfpack is 7-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— last five years, NC State is 18-23-1 ATS in ACC games.
— NC State lost its last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2017.

Pittsburgh
— Last two years, Panthers were 20-7 SU/16-11 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— Pitt hosts Boston College on November 16.
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls. 

Syracuse
— Syracuse was 7-6 LY, their 2nd winning season since 2014.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— since 2018, Syracuse is 9-5 ATS as home favorites.
— last 10 years, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— last two years, Orange are 9-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).

Virginia
— Virginia was 3-7 LY, after being 28-21 the previous four years.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— only 17 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB is a I-AA transfer; 3-year starter Armstrong bolted to NC State.
— NC State visits Charlottesville September 22.
— last 3 years, Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS coming off a win.
— since 2020, Virginia is 15-9 ATS in ACC games.
— Virginia lost three of last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2018.

Virginia Tech
— Tech has had 3 straight losing years; 14-21 SU/13-22 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— junior QB Wells started 11 games LY; Baylor transfer Drones is more of a runner.  
— since 2019, Hokies are 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Tech is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 3 years, Tech is 1-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016. 

Wake Forest
— 4-year starting QB Hartman bolted to Notre Dame (45 starts).
— Wake Forest was 19-8 SU the last 2 years; why would he leave?
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— whoever the new QB is has big shoes to fill.
— since 2017, Deacons are 17-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Wake is 7-4 ATS as an underdog
— In his career, Clawson is 31-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wake won bowl games the last two years, 38-10/27-17.

— Arizona
Last 10 years, Cardinals are 9-20-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
Last 10 years, Cardinals are 19-10-1 ATS in NFC West road games.

— Atlanta
Under Smith, Falcons are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
Under Smith, Falcons are 11-7 ATS on road. 

— Baltimore
John Harbaugh’s first five years: 54-26 in regular season, 9-4 in playoffs
John Harbaugh’s last ten years: 92-70 in regular season, 2-5 in playoffs

— Buffalo
Last four years, Bills are 8-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under McDermott, under is 28-19-2 Buffalo road games.

— Carolina
Last five years, Panthers have had five different #1 QB’s; this year will be #6.
Last seven years, Carolina is 46-68 SU, 0-1 in playoff games.

— Chicago
Last four years, Bears are 13-18-1 ATS at home.
Last two years, Bears are 5-11-1 ATS on the road.

— Cincinnati
Last three years, Bengals are 16-7 ATS as a favorite.
Last four years, Bengals are 8-4 ATS in NFC North home games.

— Movie of the Day: Before We Go (1988)— Two strangers stuck in Manhattan for the night become each other’s most trusted confidants when an evening of unexpected adventure forces them to confront their fears and take control of their lives.

Never heard of anyone in this movie; the guy who stars in it (Chris Evans) was also the director.

Pretty good movie that I stumbled upon on Amazon Prime late one night.

— College Football Trend of the Day: In two years under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 11-4 ATS as a favorite.

— Cleveland
Under Stefanski, Browns are 10-16-4 ATS as a favorite.
Last 10 years, Cleveland is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite.

— Dallas
Last three years, Cowboys are 18-10 ATS at home.
Last six years, Dallas is 14-4 ATS in NFC East home games.

— Denver
Last six years, Broncos are 7-18-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Last five years, under is 26-15 in Denver home games.

— Detroit
Lions were 9-8 last year; from 2018-21, they were 17-46-2.
From 2014-17, Lions went 36-28 under Jim Caldwell, but they fired him; why?

— Green Bay
Last four years, Packers are 13-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five years, Green Bay is 12-8-1 ATS if spread was 3 or fewer points.

— Houston
This year, Texans will have 7th #1 QB in 11 years; they’ve had four head coaches the last four year.
Last two years, Houston was 7-26-1 SU, despite a +2 turnover ratio. 

— Baltimore
Last eight years, they’re 1-5 in playoff games.
Last five years, they’re 13-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Ravens are 11-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2015, Baltimore is 18-9-2 ATS as a road dog.

— Buffalo
Last four years, they’re 4-4 in playoff games (from 2003-19, they were 0-2)
Under McDermott, they’re 29-18-2 ATS on the road.
Last four years, they’re 14-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last four years, Bills are 12-6 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Cincinnati
Last two years, Bengals are 22-11 in regular season, 5-2 in playoff games.
From 2016-20, Bengals were 25-53-2 in regular season.
Under Taylor, Cincinnati is 16-9 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Bengals are 14-6 ATS coming off a loss.

— Cleveland
Over last 20 years, Browns are 1-1 in playoff games (2020)
Their only two winning seasons: 2007, 2020.
Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Browns are 10-16-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Denver
Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl in 2015.
Sean Payton is their 5th head coach in last eight years.
Since 2015, Denver is 11-21-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2017, Broncos are 6-18-3 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less points.

— Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is their fourth head coach the last four years (11-38-1 last 3 years)
Last five years, Texans are 10-6-2 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.
Last ten years, Houston is 14-21-3 ATS against NFC opponents
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston’s road games.

— Indianapolis Colts
Colts made the playoffs twice in last eight seasons.
Indy was minus-13 in turnovers last year (+14/+10 previous two years)
Last eight years, Colts are 20-9-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Last three years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.

— Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars were 9-8 last year; they were 15-50 from 2018-21.
Underdogs covered all eight Jacksonville home games last year.
Since 2014, Jaguars are 21-31-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Jaguars’ last sixteen home games.

— Movie of the Day— American Underdog (2021)— The remarkable story of NFL MVP and Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, who in five years went from stocking shelves at a supermarket in Iowa to becoming one of the best quarterbacks ever.

Zachary Levi plays Warner, Anna Paquin plays Brenda Warner, Dennis Quaid is coach Dick Vermeil. Bruce McGill plays Iowa Barnstormers’ coach Jim Foster. 

If you didn’t know this was a true story, you’d dismiss this movie as being too corny, but real life is generally better than fiction.

— Kansas City Chiefs
Last four years, Chiefs are 10-2 in playoffs, winning two Super Bowls.
Last eight years, Kansas City is 17-7 ATS in AFC West road games.
Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 10 years, Chiefs are 24-12-1 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.

Las Vegas Raiders
Last 20 years, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games (2016, 2021)
Last three years, Raiders are minus-7/minus-9/minus-11 in turnovers.
Last seven years, Las Vegas is 5-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers made playoffs three times in the last 13 years.
Since 2014, Chargers are 18-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Bolts are 30-17-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 4 years, Chargers are 6-15-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Miami Dolphins
Last year, Miami made playoffs for first time since 2008.
Last time Dolphins won a playoff game? 2000 (0-2 in playoffs last 20 years).
Last six years, Dolphins are 13-5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Miami is 7-2 ATS in AFC East home games. 

New England Patriots
Since Tom Brady left, Patriots are 25-25 in regular season, 0-1 in playoff games.
25-26 in three years, despite being +17 in turnovers in those games.
Last 10 years, New England is 28-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five years, Patriots are 10-17-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

New Jersey Jets
Jets haven’t made playoffs since 2010, so they got Aaron Rodgers to play QB.
Last three years, Gang Green was 13-37 SU/20-30 ATS
Last 10 years, Jets are 11-17 ATS as a home favorite, 29-22-2 as a home underdog.
Last 10 years, underdogs are 20-10 ATS in Jets’ AFC East home games.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Last five years, Pittsburgh is 0-2 in playoff games.
Last six years, Steelers are 16-21 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Tomlin is 25-41-1 ATS as road favorite, 36-23-1 as a road dog.
Last nine years, under is 46-22-3 in Steeler road games.

Tennessee Titans
Last year was Tennessee’s first losing season since 2015.
Last three years, underdogs are 15-6-1 ATS in Titan road games.
Last three years, Titans are 10-15 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, under is 12-4-1 in Tennessee home games.