• links • archives •

2010 NFL/Horse Racing Page
Armadillo's mailing address is:
Armadillosports.com
PO Box 38143
Albany, NY 12203

e-mail the armadillo, click here!!!!

NFL Week 1 analysis
 Vikings @ Saints—Minnesota lost NFC title game to Saints here in OT 7+ months ago; Favre won his first road start the last four years, scoring 37 ppg; Vikings are 5-2 vs spread last seven times they opened season road. Saints are 9-3 in last 12 home openers, 5-2 vs spread last seven times they were favored in home opener- they lost this Thursday opener at Indy three years ago, so have experience dealing with hoopla. Saints are 8-5 as home favorite last two years, 6-2 in non-divisional games. Vikings are 7-10-2 a dog last three years.

Panthers @ Giants—Opener of $1.6B palace funded by PSL holders. Carolina crushed Big Blue 41-9 across parking lot in playoffs LY, their third win in last four visits to Swamp; Carolina is very inexperienced at QB, but is also 7-3 vs spread in last ten road openers. Giants are 15-7 in last 22 home openers, 8-4 vs spread as favorite in home opener. Under is 10-3 in Carolina’s last 13 road openers, 7-3 in Giants’ last ten home openers. Since ’06, Carolina is 11-15-1 as single digit dog. Giants are 14-19-1 as non-divisional home fave, since ’02.

Dolphins @ Bills—Miami beat Bills in Toronto in ’08, but lost last five games played here, scoring just 11.6 ppg; Fish lost last six road openers (0-4-1 vs spread last five), scoring 11.2 ppg. Buffalo covered four of last five home openers, winning last two, 34-10/33-20. Over last 10 years, Bills are 5-10-1 as home dog in divisional games; they’re 1-4-1 as home dog overall the last two years. Miami is 3-7 as fave of 3 or less points since ’04. Under is 6-2 in last eight Miami road openers, 9-3 in last dozen Buffalo openers, but four of last five series totals were 41+.

Falcons @ Steelers— Pitt is home dog for first time since ’04. No Big Ben for Steeler squad that won last seven home openers; Leftwich (knee) is out, so still not sure whether Dixon/Batch gets nod at QB vs Atlanta squad that is 0-5-1 in last six visits here, but is 10-2 vs spread in last 12 season openers. Since 2005, Atlanta is 14-6 vs spread when playing an AFC team- the last three years, they’re 7-1-1 as favorite of 3 or less points. Falcons were outscored 74-22 in losing last three road openers; their last six road openers stayed under total, while seven of last nine Steeler openers went over.

Lions @ Bears—Interesting to see if Cutler/Martz combo makes Bears more explosive. Chicago won eight of last ten series games, winning last four (three by 14+ points); Lions lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 24+ points. Detroit lost four of last five road openers, allowing 34.4 ppg, with three losses by 13+ points. Bears are 1-5 vs spread last six times they opened season as home favorite (this is first time since ’04). Lions are 9-24 as single digit dog the last five years. Last six Chicago openers stayed under total; Lions last five road openers went over.

Bengals @ Patriots— Belichick won last eight home openers (1-3 vs spread last four); he’s won six of last seven against Bengals, taking last three by average of 17 points. Cincy lost last four visits here, by 6-5-3-7 points; their last win here was in ’86. Pats are 40-18-4 as single digit favorite since ’03, 10-5 as non-divisional home fave last three years. Bengals added Owens and rookie TE Gresham to QB Palmer weapons to make offense more diverse. Since ’06, Bengals are 13-9 as road dog. Seven of last eight Patriot totals went over; Bengals last six road openers stayed under.

Browns @ Bucs—Cleveland is opening on road for first time since Modell skipped town; they lost last five season openers, with four losses by 14+ points- they covered one of last eight as Week 1 underdog. Tampa Bay won both series meetings, 22-7 on Lake Erie in ’06, 17-3 here in ’02; Bucs lost last four season openers- 13 of their last 18 home openers stayed under total. Browns Hard to imagine any Bucs team finishing 32nd in NFL in rush defense, but Tampa did it LY. Under is 7-3 in Browns’ last ten openers, 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven home openers.

Broncos @ Jaguars—Broncos are opening on road sixth year in row, winning  last three years, by 1-27-5 points. Home side lost last three series games, with Jags winning four of last five, but Jax scored just 10-10-12 points in losing last three home openers. Five of last six Jaguar openers stayed under total, as have six of last eight Denver road openers, with Broncos scoring 15 or less points in five of last six. Denver stumbled to 8-8 finish after 6-0 start LY; looking to see what role (Wildcat?) rookie Tebow plays with Bronco offense.

Colts @ Texans—Have to see if new placement of umpire behind QB hurts pace of Colts’ no-huddle offense. Indy is 15-1 in series, winning last six, with four of six wins by 6 or less points; Colts are 7-1 here, winning last three visits by 6-4-8 points. Texans are 1-7 in last eight season openers- they’re  1-6 in last seven home openers, with five of six losses by 7+ points. Colts are 9-2 SU in last 11 openers, 6-1 in last seven on road. Average total in last ten series games, 45.2, but under is 4-1 in both Colts’ last five road openers, Texans last five home openers.

Raiders @ Tennessee—Campbell will give Oakland its best QB play since Rich Gannon. Home side won 11 of last 13 series games; Oakland is 1-4 in last five visits here, with all four losses by 7 or less points. Raiders are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road openers, but four of their last five Week 1 losses are by 10+ points.  Since 2003, Oakland is just 22-40-1 vs spread as single digit dog (7-12 last two years). Titans are 8-5 as home favorite last two years; they’re 2-4 in last six home openers, 2-6 vs spread last eight times they were favored in home opener.

Packers @ Eagles—Home team won 10 of last 11 series games; Pack is 0-9 here since 49-0 win in ’62 that avenged loss in ’60 title game. This is only third time since ’88 Pack opened season on road; they’re 12-5 in last 17 openers, winning last three by 3-5-6 points. Green Bay’s last four road openers went over total (Pack scored average of 37.5 ppg). Kolb starts at QB for Eagles, who are 3-1 in last four openers (all wins by 14+ points). Philly is 3-5 as home dog since ’04, 1-3 as dog of 3 or less points last two years.  Packers are 8-3 as road favorites last three years.

49ers @ Seahawks—Seahawks’ OL coach Gibbs quit Saturday; you wonder whats going on behind closed doors in Seattle, where some veteran players were cut. 49ers are 2-5 in last seven visits here, but won first meeting with Seattle in three of last four years; three of their last four losses here were by 24+ points. Niners won last three road openers by combined total of 8 points, all vs division foes. 49ers are 2-6-1 as road favorite since 2002, 5-7-2 as fave of 3 or less points. Seattle is 2-6-1 in last nine as home underdog. Under is 8-1 in Seattle’s last nine home openers.

Cardinals @ Rams— Anderson new Redbird QB; will top target Fitzgerald play? Boldin is gone, Arizona will struggle on offense vs very young Ram team with rookie QB making first start. Cardinals won last seven series games, with six wins by 8+ points, holding Rams to 11.5 ppg in last four meetings. Arizona also won last five visits here; they’re 4-7 as a road favorite since ’01. St Louis is 7-14 as home dog last three years, 10-22 as single digit dog, but for first time since Warner left town, they have a  QB who can take pressure off star RB Jackson. 

Cowboys @ Redskins—First game for Shanahan as coach, McNabb as QB for Redskins, whose last seven home openers were all decided by 6 or less points. In Weeks 1-2 last three years, Cowboys averaged 36 ppg; they’re 11-2 in last 13 road openers, 4-1 in last five. Six of their last seven season openers went over total, but six of Redskins’ last seven home openers stayed under. Dallas is 8-4 in last 12 visits here, winning last two 14-10/17-0; Cowboys won last three in series by 4-1-17 points, with average total just 18.0. Washington is 3-5 as home dog last two years.

Ravens @ Jets—Baltimore won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points; Coach Ryan faces his old team as Jets play first game in new stadium- this is first time since ’04 Jets opened season at home (5-13 in last 18 home openers). Baltimore won three of last four road openers, but is 2-9 in first road game last 11 years. Ravens are 11-6-1 as dog of 3 or less points since ’06. Jets are 6-11-1 vs spread as home favorite last three years. Under is 9-3 in Ravens’ last dozen openers, 4-1 in Jets’ last five. Not sure if Revis will be in top shape after protracted holdout; will Baltimore attack him?

Chargers @ Chiefs-- San Diego started 2-3 four of last five years, so they're never solid choice this early in year (3-4 in last seven openers), but they won five in row in this series, crushing KC 37-7/43-14 in LY's meetings. Bolts won last three visits here, by 24-10/22-21/37-7 scores. Chiefs lost its opener four years in row, scoring 7.8 ppg; they're 3-7 in last ten home openers. Under is 16-1-2 in KC's last 19 home openers, with last eight staying under. Chargers are 9-4 as road favorite in divisional games since 2004. Chiefs are 13-25-1 as a single digit underdog since '05, but 7-3-1 in last 11 as divisional home dog.

Week 1 spreads, 2010 NFL

Minnesota
New Orleans 4, 49		 Indianapolis 3, 46
Houston
Carolina
NJ Giants 7, 41		 Oakland
Tennessee 6.5, 41
Miami 3, 37
Buffalo		 Green Bay 1.5, 44.5
Philadelphia
Atlanta 2.5, 38
Pittsburgh 		San Francisco 2.5, 38
Seattle
Detroit
Chicago 7, 43		 Arizona 3.5, 39
Rams
Cincinnati
New England 5.5, 43		 Dallas 3.5, 41.5
Washington
Cleveland
Tampa Bay 3, 36		 Baltimore
NJ Jets 3, 37
Denver
Jacksonville 2.5, 39.5		 San Diego 5.5, 45.5
Kansas City

Over/under win totals for 2010 NFL

Arizona Cardinals-- 7.5 Miami Dolphins-- 8
Atlanta Falcons-- 8 Minnesota Vikings-- 9
Baltimore Ravens-- 9 New England Patriots-- 9.5
Buffalo Bills-- 5.5 New Jersey Giants-- 8.5
Carolina Panthers-- 7.5 New Jersey Jets-- 9.5
Chicago Bears-- 7.5 New Orleans Saints-- 10.5
Cincinnati Bengals-- 8 Oakland Raiders-- 5.5
Cleveland Browns-- 5 Philadelphia Eagles-- 8.5
Dallas Cowboys-- 10 Pittsburgh Steelers-- 8
Denver Broncos-- 7 Rams-- 5
Detroit Lions-- 5.5 San Diego Chargers-- 10.5
Green Bay Packers-- 9 San Francisco 49ers-- 9
Houston Texans-- 8.5 Seattle Seahawks-- 7
Indianapolis Colts-- 11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers-- 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars-- 7.5 Tennessee Titans-- 8.5
Kansas City Chiefs-- 6 Washington Redskins-- 7.5

Selections

Armadillo's tips
Selections will be posted on Saturday........

2009 bankroll: 11-10-3, plus 1 erxleben
'09
F
H
O/U
AFC-NFC
1)
7-9
6-10
8-8
2-0N
2)
7-9
6-10
9-7
2-2
3)
11-5
8-8
7-9
2-2
4)
9-5
12-2
9-5
2-2
5)
6-8
8-6
7-7
4-1N
6)
5-9
5-9
7-6-1
4-1A
7)
9-2-1
3-9-1
7-5-1
6-2A
8)
5-8
5-8
6-7
1-1
9)
3-10
4-9
6-7
2-0A
10)
5-9-1
8-6-1
9-6
2-1A
11)
6-10
5-11
5-10-1
1-1
12)
9-6-1
8-7-1
6-10
3-3
13)
6-9
10-6
6-10
1-1
14)
9-7
8-8
4-11-1
6-2A
15)
4-11-1
5-10-1
7-9
3-0A
16)
7-8-1
7-8-1
8-8
2-0N
17)
 
T)
107-119-5
108-124-5
110-122-4
36-26A

2009 Over/Under win totals for season.

Arizona 9.5 Miami 8
Atlanta 9 Minnesota 9
Baltimore 10 New England 11.5
Buffalo 7.5 New Orleans 8.5
Carolina 9 NY Giants 10
Chicago 9 NY Jets 7
Cincinnati 6 Oakland 5.5
Cleveland 6.5 Philadelphia 9.5
Dallas 9.5 Pittsburgh 11
Denver 7.5 Rams 5
Detroit 4 San Diego 10.5
Green Bay 8.5 San Francisco 7
Houston 8.5 Seattle 7
Indianapolis 10.5 Tampa Bay 6.5
Jacksonville 8 Tennessee 9.5
Kansas City 6 Washington 7.5
 

2008 Home/Away Favorite/Underdog chart
Home-Road
Over-Und
Fave/Dogs
AFC-NFC (su)
1)
9-7
6-10
10-6
3-1N
2)
5-9-1
7-7-1
5-8-1
1-1
3)
9-7
10-6
10-6
3-1N
4)
7-6
11-2
7-6
3-0A
5)
4-9-1
8-6
8-6
3-2N
6)
8-6
4-9-1
6-8
1-1
7)
8-5-1
8-5-1
7-6-1
2-1N
8)
6-7
6-8
6-8
2-1N
9)
3-11
5-7-2
5-9
3-2N
10)
3-11
8-5
6-7
4-1A
11)
5-11
5-10-1
7-8
2-1-1 N
12)
5-10-1
11-5
9-6-1
1-1
13)
5-11
7-9
7-9
2-1N
14)
11-5
3-13
9-7
4-2A
15)
8-8
7-8-1
6-10
4-2A
16)
7-9
8-8
5-11
3-1A
17)
10-5-1
9-7
9-6-1
2-0A
WC)
2-2
1-3
2-2
x
1P)
1-3
1-3
1-3
x
CC)
2-0
2-0
1-1
x
Tot
119-142-4
127-131-8
127-132-4
34-29-1A

2008 Over/Under Win Totals

Arizona
over 7.5, -$140
under, +$110
Baltimore
over 6, even
under, -$130
Atlanta
over 4.5, -$160
under, +$130
Buffalo
over 7.5, -$180
under, +$150
Carolina
over 7.5, -$145
under, +$115
Bengals
over 7, -$145
under, +$115
Chicago
over 8, -$115
under, -$115
Browns
over 8, -$130
under, +$115
Dallas
over 10.5, -$160
under, +130
Broncos
over 7.5, -$145
under, +115
Detroit
over 6.5, -$140
under, +110
Texans
over 7.5, -$115
under, -$115
Packers
over 8.5, +$120
under, -$150
Colts
over 11, +$135
under, -$165
Vikings
over 8.5, even
under, -$130
Jaguars
over 10, -$125
under, -$105
Saints
over 8.5, -$150
under, +$110
Chiefs
over 5.5, -$145
under, +115
Giants
over 8.5, -$140
under, -$110
Miami
over 5.5, --$135
under, -$105
Eagles
over 8.5, -$150
under, +$120
Patriots
over 12, -$130
under, even
Rams
over 6.5, -$145
under, +$115
Jets
over 7.5, +$150
under, +$120
49ers
over 6, -$155
under, +$125
Raiders
over 6, -$170
under, +$140
Seattle
over 8.5, -$155
under, +$125
Steelers
over 9, -$140
under, +$110
Bucs
over 8, even
under, -$130
Chargers
over 10.5, -$145
under, +$115
Redskins
over 7.5, -$125
under, -$105
Titans
over 8, -$115
under 8, -$115

2007 Home/Away Favorite/Underdog chart
Home-Road
Over-Und
Fave/Dogs
AFC-NFC (su)
1)
9-5-2
6-10
9-5-2
2-2
2)
6-9-1
8-8
3-12-1
2-2
3)
6-8-2
12-3-1
7-7-2
4-2A
4)
8-6
6-8
5-9
2-0N
5)
8-6
7-7
7-7
4-2A
6)
5-6-2
6-7
7-4-2
2-2
7)
7-7
6-8
8-6
none
8)
2-9*
6-6
6-5
4-1A
9)
10-3
9-4-1
9-5
5-2N
10)
4-9-1
7-7
5-8-1
1-0N
11)
8-8
7-9
12-4
3-1N
12)
7-9
9-7
10-6
2-2
13)
9-7
10-6
10-6
1-1
14)
9-7
10-6
11-4
2-1A
15)
9-7
7-9
6-10
1-1
16)
8-7-1
10-6
6-9-1
1-0A
17)
10-6
11-5
10-6
2-2
WC)
2-1-1
2-2
2-1-1
x
1P)
CC)
Tot
127-121-10
139-119-2
127-107-10
31-31

2006 Home/Away- Favorite/Underdog chart
Home-Road
Over-Und
Fave/Dogs
AFC-NFC (su)
1)
4-12
4-12
6-10
3-3
2)
11-5
6-9-1
10-6
x
3)
5-8-1
7-6-1
3-10-1
1-0N
4)
10-3-1
9-5
7-6-1
2-2
5)
9-3-2
7-7
8-4-2
3-1N
6)
8-5
8-5
4-9
4-2N
7)
7-5-1
8-5
4-8-1
4-1A
8)
8-6
9-4-1
8-6
5-1A
9)
7-7
7-7
5-9
3-2A
10)
6-9
5-10
6-9
2-0A
11)
7-8-1
6-10
9-6-1
6-2A
12)
10-6
6-10
9-7
4-0A
13)
8-7-1
9-5-2
4-10-1
3-1A
14)
6-10
10-6
6-9
x
15)
6-10
8-7-1
9-7
3-1A
16)
3-12-1
8-8
2-13-1
2-0N
17)
4-12
9-7
7-9
1-1
WC)
2-2
1-3
2-2
x
1P)
0-4
2-2
0-4
x
CC)
2-0
2-0
2-0
x
Tot
121-134-8
126-123-6
109-142-8
40-24 AFC

2005 Home/Away- Favorite/Underdog chart
Home-Road
Over-Und
Fave/Dogs
AFC-NFC
1)
10-6
7-9
9-7
1-1
2)
10-6
3-12-1
9-7
2-2
3)
7-7
9-5
6-8
3-3
4)
6-7
6-8
8-6
2-1N
5)
7-7
10-4
7-7
4-2A
6)
9-3-2
9-4-1
10-2-2
2-2
7)
7-6-1
4-8-2
7-5-1
4-2N
8)
8-6
6-8
8-6
3-1A
9)
4-10
6-8
11-3
1-1
10)
7-7
8-5-1
8-6
1-0N
11)
9-7
8-8
7-9
2-0A
12)
6-10
5-11
12-4
4-3N
13)
7-9
4-11-1
12-4
0-0
14)
7-8-1
6-9-1
6-9-1
1-0-1A
15)
7-9
7-9
9-7
6-2A
16)
7-8-1
11-5
11-4-1
1-0A
17)
8-8
9-5-2
8-8
4-0N
WC)
1-3
1-3
2-2
X
1P)
2-2
1-3
2-2
X
CC)
1-1
2-0
1-1
X
Tot
131-127-5
123-135-9
153-108-5
32-29-1A

ffib13@gmail.com is my e-mail address. I welcome any comments or suggestions you may have.