Monday’s Den: Quick Thoughts/Notes on NFL’s Week 1 games:

Cowboys-Buccaneers:
— Main question for Dallas is the health of QB Prescott’s shoulder.
— Last 18 years, defending Super Bowl champs are 11-4-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year.

Eagles-Falcons:
— Both head coaches in this game are first-time head coaches.
— Eagles’ QB is 2nd year QB Hurts (1-3 as starter); Falcons’ is Matt Ryan (113-92)

Steelers-Bills:
— Buffalo split its last six home openers, after an 0-13 skid.
— Should be split crowd, tough day for security guys.

Vikings-Bengals:
— Klint Kubiak is Minnesota’s 6th offensive coordinator in six years.
— Burrow hasn’t played in preseason; he got hurt November 22. Is he healthy yet?

49ers-Lions:
— How long until rookie QB Lance takes over at QB?
— New QB, new coach, new GM; they’re going to run ball more.

Cardinals-Titans:
— Lost 4 of last 5 road openers; how much will JJ Watt help the defense?
— Titans added WR Julio Jones to spruce up offense; HC Vrabel has COVID

Seahawks-Colts:
— Seattle is 3rd betting choice in NFC West, which is ludicrous/absurd.
— If he is healthy, Wentz will be Colts’ 4th #1 QB the last four years.

Chargers-Washington:
— Will Staley’s defense be as sturdy now that he is a head coach?
— QB Fitzpatrick will be starting for an NFL-record 9th team.

Jets-Panthers:
— New coach, rookie QB, opener on road; not a great scenario.
— Carolina QB Darnold faces his old team in this game.

Jaguars-Texans:
— Meyer is 0-0 as an NFL HC, 187-32 as a college coach.
— Culley is 0-0 as a HC anywhere; he was an OC once, at UTEP in 1990.

Browns-Chiefs:
— Browns are 1-8 SU last nine road openers (3-5-1 ATS); last five stayed under total.
— Teams that lost Super Bowl are 4-14 ATS in Week 1 the next year; Chiefs have won, covered last four home openers.

Dolphins-Patriots:
— Jacoby Brissett (12-20 as starter) is solid backup for 2nd year QB Tagovailoa (6-3).
— New England had #1 net punting average in NFL last season.

Packers-Saints:
— Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last fifteen road openers.
— Who is the new QB? Are Hill/Winston both going to play?

Broncos-Giants:
— Denver is 32-48 since Peyton Manning left; who is this year’s QB?
— Giants are 10-22 since Eli Manning left; Glennon is a solid backup to Jones.

Bears-Rams:
— QB Dalton will start in Week 1; how long before rookie Fields takes over?
— Stafford is new QB; new DC, new special teams coach. WRs are improved, defense figures to take a step back.

Ravens-Raiders:
— Baltimore won/covered its last five season openers.
— First game at Allegiant Stadium with fans; it should be lo

Friday’s Den: Trends for AFC teams

Ravens:
— Last six years, they’re 1-3 in playoff games.
— Won/covered last five season openers
— Since 2013, they’re 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last four years, they’re 9-1-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Bills:
— Last two years, they’re 23-9 SU, their only consecutive winning seasons in last 20 years.
— Last three years, they’re 10-4-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four years , they’re 11-4-2 ATS on natural grass.
— Bills are 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Bengals:
— Last 20 years, they’re 0-7 in playoff games.
— Last five years, they’re 25-53-2 SU
— Last five years, they’re 9-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Bengals were favored twice in last 16 home games. 

Browns:
— Last years was their first winning season since 2007.
— Since 2013, they’re 2-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Browns are 15-34-1 ATS in last 50 games coming off a loss.
— Last six years, they’re 9-15 ATS vs NFC teams.

Broncos:
— Won Super Bowl after 2015 season; they’re 32-48 since then.
— Last four years, they’re 3-8-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, Denver is 10-18-2 ATS vs AFC West opponents.
— Last four years, Broncos are 9-13 ATS coming off a win. 

Texans:
— Were over .500 in 5 of O’Brien’s 7 years as head coach.
— Last four years, they’re 8-14 ATS as home favorites.
— Last eight years, they’re 9-14-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Last ten years, Texans are 4-6 in playoff games.

Colts:
— Wentz figures to be their 4th #1 QB the last four years.
— Last four years, Colts are 13-2-1 ATS as favorites of 3 or less points.
— Last four years, Colts are 2-7-1 as underdogs of 3 or less points.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-2-1 ATS vs. NFC opponents. 

Jaguars:
— Finished over .500 once in last 13 years.
— Last three years, Jaguars are 7-12-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last nine years, they’re 8-28 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last four years, they’re 8-13 ATS coming off a win.

Chiefs:
— Last six years, KC is 71-25 in regular season, 7-5 in playoffs.  
— Last eight years, Chiefs are 18-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
— KC is 5-10 ATS last 15 times they were double digit favorites.
— Last five years, Chiefs are 12-7 ATS coming off a loss.

Raiders:
— Last 18 years, Raiders are 0-1 in playoff games (2016)
— Last three years, Raiders are 19-29 SU under Gruden.
— They’re 8-4 ATS in last dozen AFC West home games.
— Last four years, Raiders are combined minus-34 in turnovers.

Chargers:
— Chargers made playoffs twice in last 11 years.  
— Last three years, they’re 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites
— They’re 1-8-2 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Last 10 years, Chargers are 7-22-1 ATS in AFC West home games.

Dolphins:
— Last 20 years, Miami is 0-3 in playoff games.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 18-10-3 ATS at home.
— Miami is 14-29 ATS in last 43 games on artificial turf.
— Last two years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a loss.

Patriots:
— Under Belichick, they’re 47-23-2 ATS as an underdog.
— NE was +3 in turnovers LY, +31 the previous two years.
— Since 2013, they’re 35-19-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— 2-7 ATS last nine games as favorites of 3 or fewer points.

Jets:
— Last time they made playoffs: 2010 under Rex Ryan.
— Last five years, Jets are 13-25-2 ATS on the road.
— Last three years, Jets are 12-21 ATS coming off a loss.
— Underdogs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 AFC home tilts.

Steelers:
— Steelers’ last losing season: 2003 (four .500 years since then)
— Last time they won a playoff game: 2017.
— Last three years, they’re 18-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Steelers covered 13 of last 16 games as an underdog.

Titans:
— Tennessee was over .500 last five years, 3-3 in playoffs.
— Last five years, Titans are 20-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two years, they’re #2/#3 in rushing yardage, +16 in turnovers.
— Vrabel is 12-14 ATS as a favorite, 11-8 as an underdog.

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for NFC trends…..

Arizona Cardinals:
— Last made playoffs in 2015
— 1-3-1 SU in last five season openers.
— Since 2015, they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2018, they’re 10-6-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons:
— Last 3 years, they’re 18-30 SU
— Lost last 3 openers by 6-16-13 points.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-27 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, they’re 2-7 ATS as road favorites.

Carolina Panthers:
— They went 17-2 in 2015, lost Super Bowl, are 34-47 since then.
— Since 2012, they’re 7-16-1 ATS as road favorites, 34-16 as road dogs.
— Last two years, Carolina is 4-11-1 ATS at home.
— Last four years, over is 20-12 in Panther home games.

Chicago Bears:
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game (0-2) since 2010.
— Chicago lost six of last seven season openers.
— Last two years, they’re 4-10-1 ATS off a loss.
— Last four years, under is 21-11 in their home games.

Dallas Cowboys:
— Over last 20 years, Dallas is 4-7 in playoff games.
— Last three years, Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three years, over is 16-8 in their home games.
— Last 3 years, they’re 2-8 ATS as favorite of 3 or fewer points.

Detroit Lions:
— Last three years, they’re 14-33-1 SU, minus-20 in turnovers.
— Which is why they have a new GM, coach, QB.
— Last three years, they’re 7-15-1 ATS at home.
— Last two years, Lions are 6-13-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2014, they’re 9-19-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points.

Green Bay Packers
— Last two years, they’re 26-6 SU, with +24 turnover ratio.
— Packers are 30-18-2 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2015, under is their home games.
— Last nine years, they’re 14-21-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
— McVay is 43-21 SU in four years with the Rams.
— 10 years before that, Rams were 46-113 SU.
— Last two years, under is 13-3 in their home games.
— Rams won/covered last four season openers.
— McVay’s first 2 years, Rams were +19 in turnovers; last two years, minus-3.

Minnesota Vikings:
— Did not having fans matter? Over was 7-1 in their home games LY; from 2016-19, under was 20-10-2 in Viking home games.
— Zimmer is 26-16-1 ATS as home favorite, despite going 1-6 LY.
— Last three years, they’re 8-15-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2014, they’re 17-9 ATS as favorites of 3 or fewer points. 

New Orleans Saints
— Last time Drew Brees wasn’t the Saints’ QB? 2005 (Aaron Brooks)
— Last 4 years, Saints were 49-15 SU (+39 in turnovers, 3-4 in playoffs)
— Since 2014, over is 36-20 in the Superdome.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.

New Jersey Giants
— Last four years, Giants are 18-46 SU.
— Giants won Super Bowl in 2011; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last 3 years, they’re 4-14 ATS as home underdogs, 16-4 as road dogs.
— Since 2016, under is 24-16 in their home games.

Philadelphia Eagles:
— Eagles won eight of last ten season openers.
— Last three years, they’re 5-13 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, under is 28-12 in Philly home games.
— Last three years, they’re 8-16 ATS coming off a loss.

San Francisco 49ers
— 49ers made playoffs once in last seven years.
— Last three years, they’re 4-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last two years, they’re 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four years, they’re 11-5 ATS vs AFC teams.

Seattle Seahawks
— Finished over .500 last nine years (9-7 in playoff games)
— Since 2012, underdogs are 17-6-3 ATS in their NFC West road games.
— Since 2011, they’re 31-16-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 3 years, they’re 11-5-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
— Bucs were +8 in turnovers LY; previous two years, they were minus-31.
— Last four years, over is 23-9 in their road games.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 10-2-1 ATS as home dogs, 6-11-4 as road dogs.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002 and last year; the 17 years in between, they were 0-2 in playoff games.

Washington
— Last 20 years, they’re 1-5 in playoffs; the win was in 2005.
— Last three years, they’re 12-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2015, they’re 26-15-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.